News came out Friday night that No. 4 Ohio State would not be playing at Illinois on Saturday due to a COVID-19 outbreak on their team.
With the Big Ten getting to their season late and not allowing for any bye weeks it means that Ohio State will only have a maximum of six regular-season games in 2020, but that is certainly no guarantee which means the Buckeyes likely trip to the Big Ten Championship Game yet again is also hardly a certainty.
In order to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship Game a team must play at least six conference games this season. Ohio State has had two of their eight canceled and with the way things are sounding in Columbus combined with the Big Ten guidelines for players being able to return to play, it’s anything but a guarantee that the Buckeyes will be ready to take on Michigan State next week.
So what does it mean and who then gains from this?
Factor in Oregon’s unlikely loss at Oregon State Friday night and with all due respect to Colorado, USC and Washington, its nearly impossible to see a Pac-12 team making the College Football Playoff, not that I thought it was likely before.
But what about Ohio State?
Say the Buckeyes get their final two games in and are eligible for and win the Big Ten Championship, I have trouble believing they don’t get in, even if I’d have a real issue with a team only playing seven games having done enough to prove itself compared to teams who have played 11 or 12.
But if Ohio State doesn’t get their six games in then there is probably nobody in college football happier than the folks in Evanston, Cincinnati and College Station.
Ohio State would still be eligible to play the Week 9 crossover game the Big Ten is doing this year and would likely face Wisconsin. But assuming if there is an unbeaten Big Ten champ does that really matter?
Northwestern would get a chance to go to the Big Ten Championship Game unbeaten and play Indiana instead of Ohio State. The Wildcats and their backers would have to be thrilled as they’ve lost 32 of their last 33 meetings with Ohio State dating back to 1971. Northwestern has been able to do a lot since Gary Barnett turned their program around in the mid-nineties but compete with Ohio State is not one of them.
If the Wildcats win the Big Ten at 9-0 and you can’t leave Northwestern out of the College Football Playoff and you’re certainly not letting two Big Ten teams in.
Cincinnati fans have to be thrilled as well because they now have more than just an outside chance at the College Football Playoff. The Bearcats sit at 8-0 and if they beat Tulsa next weekend will have wins over three teams that were ranked when they met.
For comparison, Ohio State has one.
The folks in College Station, Texas have to like these developments as well seeing as it’s virtually impossible to expect them to be able to catch Alabama after getting boat-raced by the Tide, but Ohio State potentially only having five wins is hard to sell. If Northwestern were to get to the Big Ten Championship but fall to Indiana then Texas A&M and Cincinnati are very likely battling it out for a spot.
Now how does all of this affect Notre Dame?
It doesn’t guarantee anything but their wiggle room to get in even if they lose the ACC Championship Game certainly got bigger with today’s news and results.