ESPN released their preseason FPI rankings this week, and the Texas Longhorns landed in the top 10 at No. 6 specifically.
This has struck many as outrageous, as Texas did not even win six games last year. How can they be ranked so highly, or even ranked at all?
In large part, this is because Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns were close in most games last year with a limited roster. Texas retained most of their key players and have added a highly toughed quarterback in Quinn Ewers. They’re likely not done adding talent from the transfer portal either, as the Longhorns are currently the favorite to land Ochuan Mathis to man the edge, where the defense struggled most with last year.
At Texas, the expectations are like the state, i.e. they are massive. You are not going to get many years to build the program. If you are not winning by year three, you are likely to be shown the door. That is just the way it is.
While it is not likely that the Longhorns will end the season in the top 10 (though that is not impossible), a more realistic expectation is nine wins and a Big 12 championship berth — not far off from ESPN’s FPI predictions. This means that Sarkisian can afford to lose three games, not be in the College Football Playoff discussion, and still be successful.
Given that the Big 12 is the fourth best of the Power Five conferences, this should not be overly difficult if Sark is indeed the right coach. But is he? We are going to find out.