One of the most interesting metrics we like to follow that correlates to a college football team’s strength and talent is ESPN’s SP+ rankings (subscription required) by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The model has heaped some love on Ohio State over the last few years and we like to see where things stand from year-to-year, month to month, and week to week.
Early on before the season, the SP+ was bullish on the Buckeyes. And it makes sense because the model takes into account things like historical performance of recent years, recruiting, and returning talent. That’s always going to bode well for a program like OSU. But since the season started, Ohio State has dropped a wee bit in the SP+. But what goes into the ratings, bleeps, and bloops of the model?
According to ESPN:
“The SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a resume ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
OK. Kind of makes sense, right? Ohio State wasn’t entirely impressive against Notre Dame, looked a bit better against Arkansas State, and then blew the doors off of Toledo.
But where are the Buckeyes after that 77-point output? Here is what the newly released top 25 of the SP+ looks like, with Ohio State still very near the top.