ESPN’s Bill Connelly has released his SP+ projections for the 2022 college football season.
These rankings take into account three major factors that yield a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. He emphasizes that these are not intended to predict what the rankings will look like at the end of the season but are early offseason power rankings based on the following information, as outlined by Connelly:
Returning Production
The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition.
Recent Recruiting
This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the last few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight).
Recent History:
Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.
Here’s a look at the top 10: