The Ohio State football team may have lost one of its best running backs in the history of the program when J.K. Dobbins decided to forgo his senior season for the NFL, but that doesn’t mean there is a lack of weapons coming back.
For starters, Heisman finalist Justin Fields is back under center and will have another year of seasoning under his belt. He should also be healthier than what he was while he was nursing an injury at the tail end of 2019. To go along with a Heisman hopeful, there’s also a deep and talented wide-receiver corps, a veteran offensive line, and a graduate transfer running back in Trey Sermon, that’ll push and compete with a bruising Master Teague.
It is quite possible that the offense will be even more explosive than the one we saw last year. One that ended the season as the No. 3 unit in the nation. And now, it appears ESPN agrees.
According to ESPN’s FPI, it expects the Ohio State offense to be the best in the country in 2020 using the expected points added metric. But what is Expected Points Added, or EPA?
Using FPI's Expected Points Added:
Clemson has the top-ranked defense in the country by more than two points.
Ohio State boasts the top offense, more than three points better than the closest competition. pic.twitter.com/VWnNM0QX5J
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 1, 2020
You may be wondering what Expected Points Added, or EPA is. According to ESPN’s website, EPA is “a measure of success/failure that takes into account yards, turnovers, red zone efficiency and more to determine how many points each unit is contributing to the team’s scoring margin. For example, if a team wins by an average of 10 points per game, it could be that plus-seven of that is offense, plus-four is defense and minus-one is special teams.”
The other offenses projected to be the top five in the country behind OSU include Alabama (2), Clemson (3), Louisville (4), and Oklahoma (5).
Now, I don’t have to tell you that these models are often wrong, but the fact that the metrics predict this type of performance from Ohio State’s offense — one that’s over four points better than second-place Alabama — could be a precursor for what the computers will think of the Buckeyes out of the gate.
And yes, that is completely different than what we saw last season when the computers severely underestimated Ohio State. Now, all that needs to happen is to see these projections play out on the field.
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