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Earlier this week, esteemed NFL draft analyst and prognosticator Mel Kiper Jr. released his first big board looking ahead to the 2021 draft, and there was something of a surprise: Michigan third-year right tackle Jalen Mayfield made the list at No. 14.
Here’s what Kiper had to say about the redshirt sophomore:
14. Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
HT: 6-5 | WT: 319 | Class: Junior
There is some projection here because Mayfield has started only 13 college games at right tackle. But I really liked what I saw from him in the biggest games, including when he was lined up against No. 2 overall pick Chase Young in the Wolverines’ loss to Ohio State in the regular-season finale. Mayfield has some upside, and I’ll be watching closely this season.
This puts Mayfield as the third-rated offensive tackle in the class according to Kiper, behind Oregon’s Penei Sewell and Texas’ Samuel Cosmi, but ahead of other big time players like Alabama’s Alex Leatherwood and Stanford’s Walker Little.
That took some of the other ESPN analysts by surprise, as the college football team conducted something of a roundtable discussing Kiper’s early rankings.
Particularly, writer Adam Rittenberg notes that he can see the talent, but isn’t sure that such a lofty ranking is warranted just yet. He was further backed up by advance stats guru Bill Connelly, who noted that we’ve seen the glimpses, but that doesn’t fall in line statistically just yet.
Rittenberg: Offensive tackle is a priority position for the draft, and Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield has a chance to make a big jump as a third-year player. But I am a bit surprised to see him pegged in the top 15, ahead of more established pocket protectors such as Alabama’s Leatherwood (No. 25) and Stanford’s Little (not ranked). The 6-5, 319-pound Mayfield clearly has a high ceiling, and will be coached well by Ed Warinner. But after earning just honorable mention All-Big Ten honors in 2019, he needs a huge season to justify this projection.
Bill Connelly: I agree on both Holland and Mayfield. As the nickel corner position becomes more important, teams could find that Holland is perfect for that role, so I’ll focus more on Mayfield. In a field full of former star recruits who have also proved themselves in college, it’s quite a projection to put him higher than Leatherwood and others, especially when Mayfield did suffer a lot of glitches last season. In my experience, the best blockers in college football tend to be below 1% in blown run-block rate and below 2% in blown pass-block rate — Mayfield was at 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively. The potential is obvious, but this projection’s a bit aggressive.
Yes, it is a progression. But it’s rare to see a second-year offensive lineman who’s a first-year starter play so well and at such a high level in just his first foray into college football. Especially having had to go up against solid pass rushers such as Chase Young, Yetur Gross-Matos, Terrell Lewis and Anfernee Jennings.
Players tend to make a big jump from their first year to their second, as experience can’t be taught. Given that improvement isn’t static, there’s a greater chance that Mayfield reaches those numbers that Connelly speaks of compared to regressing in his second-year as a starter.
Regardless, there’s no surety that Mayfield will head to the NFL draft in 2021. Beyond the 2020 season, he does have a full two years of eligibility to reach the promise of Kiper’s projection.
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