The Duke Blue Devils (11-10 overall, 9-8 ACC) visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (15-9, 9-6) Saturday. The Tobacco Road rivals close out their regular seasons with a 6 p.m. ET tip-off at Dean Smith E. Center in Chapel Hill, N.C Below, we analyze the Duke-North Carolina college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Neither team is ranked in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina is tied for sixth place in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Duke is tied for ninth and faces the possibility of not making the NCAA tourney for the first time since the 1994-95 season.
Duke at North Carolina: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:02 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Duke +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | North Carolina -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Duke +3.5 (-115) | North Carolina -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 148.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Duke at North Carolina: Three things to know
- The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back overtime heartbreakers. They lost at Georgia Tech 81-77 as 1-point underdogs Tuesday, three days after an 80-73 home setback to Louisville as 5-point favorites. Sophomore F Matthew Hurt leads Duke in scoring (18.9 points per game) and rebounds (6.2 RPG).
- The Tar Heels, who trailed by 8 points with 51 seconds to go, came up short in a 72-70 loss at Syracuse as 2.5-point favorites Monday. It was just two days after North Carolina upset then-No. 9 and ACC frontrunner Florida State 78-70 as a 2-point home dog. Sophomore F Armando Bacot leads UNC in scoring (11.5 PPG) and freshman F Day’Ron Sharpe is the top rebounder (8.0 RPG).
- North Carolina beat Duke 91-87 as a 2.5-point underdog in early February, snapping a three-game skid in the series. Freshman G Caleb Love scored a season-high 25 points and junior G Leaky Black sank two free throws with 7.2 seconds left to seal it.
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Duke at North Carolina: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Duke 73, North Carolina 72
Money line (ML)
Back DUKE (+135) with a HALF-UNIT play. Sitting on the NCAA bubble, the Blue Devils can’t afford to lose. Look for Coach K’s crew to avenge the February loss and pick up steam heading into the ACC tourney.
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Against the spread (ATS)
DUKE +3.5 (-115) is the play. Surprisingly, there’s no home-court advantage. The Blue Devils are 5-5 in their last 10 trips to Chapel Hill, including a 98-96 overtime victory last season. The Blue Devils will rise to the occasion as they need this win more than their rivals.
ATS: Duke 7-14 | North Carolina 10-13-1
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 148.5 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Devils are on a 5-0 Over run, but they would be 1-4 O/U vs. a line of 148.5 in those five games when not counting overtime points (from the last two losses).
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are awful from 3-point range, shooting 30.4%, and hit just 43.8% from the field. They finished 10-for-15 behind the 3-point arc in the February win. That won’t happen again.
O/U records: Duke 13-7-1 | North Carolina 10-14
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| College hoops since Jan. 1 | 65-53-1 | 29-29 | +7.5 |
| 2020-21 College hoops | 80-70-1 | 34-39 | +0.755 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 83-64-1 | 40-31 | +19.8 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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