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The No. 5 Miami Hurricanes (8-0, 4-0 ACC) welcome the Duke Blue Devils (6-2, 2-2) to Hard Rock Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Duke vs. Miami odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions. Rankings are courtesy of US LBM Coaches Poll.
Miami clobbered the FSU Seminoles 36-14 in Week 9, but failed to cover as a 23-point favorite. Miami might have a perfect record, but it is just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last 4 games, having won 3 of those games by just 1 score. The Hurricanes are led by QB Cam Ward, who has 24 TDs and 5 INTs in 8 games.
The Blue Devils won 5 in a row to start the season, but have stumbled over the last few weeks. They lost 24-14 to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Week 6 and then lost the SMU Mustangs 28-27 in overtime last Saturday, closing as an 11-point underdog. Duke has been a solid side for bettors though, having a 5-2-1 ATS record and going 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Duke at Miami odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 7:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Duke +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Miami -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Duke +20.5 (-110) | Miami -20.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Duke at Miami picks and predictions
Prediction
Miami 38, Duke 24
Moneyline
PASS.
The Hurricanes should come out on top, especially playing at home. However, they aren’t worth a play as a far too expensive (-1600) favorite. The Blue Devils (+900) have struggled as of late and aren’t worth a play to pull off the upset.
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Against the spread
BET DUKE +20.5 (-110).
The Hurricanes just haven’t impressed over the last month, and it hasn’t been Ward’s fault. The offense is clicking, but their defense hasn’t held up against even subpar opponents. Miami has allowed 34 or more points in 3 of its last 4 games.
The Blue Devils offense has played well enough, scoring 20 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games, to keep this game relatively close. Duke has yet to allow more than 30 points in a game and has allowed over 24 just once. Expect the Blue Devils to play well enough to keep this within 21 points.
Back DUKE +20.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 54.5 (-110).
The Hurricanes have been aggressive offensively throughout the season. They have scored 36 or more points in all 8 games, and they have topped 41 points 5 times.
Miami’s lacking defense over the last few weeks is key as well. It is 3-1 O/U in its last 4 games and is 6-1-1 O/U on the season. Duke went Over against SMU and is 3-3-1 O/U in its last 7.
Considering those trends, back OVER 54.5 (-110).
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