When Andrew Van Ginkel was re-signed for a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, he chose not to explore greener pastures with nearly a half-dozen potential suitors. With teams offering more playing time and better pay, there were options put on the table for the fifth-year outside linebacker.
While several AFC teams, including one East rival, put opportunities for Van Ginkel to sleep on, a call from Vic Fangio and the value that the new Dolphins defensive coordinator saw in him was essentially an endorsement to bet on himself. Through 16 weeks, Van Ginkel has had a breakout season full of sacks, turnover creation, touchdowns and even pop-culture ascension, thanks to HBO’s “Hard Knocks.”
The road from just a few seasons ago to now wasn’t as smooth as you’d think, as his playing time was hit drastically last year in comparison to 2021. Last season, much to many fans’ wonder, Van Ginkel played only 29% of the team’s defensive snaps – a far cry from his 71% from 2021.
Heading into this season, an interesting correlation was developing, as Van Ginkel’s on-field importance and times in which he has been on the field more than 80% of the snaps directly relate to Dolphin wins. Prior to this season, when he hit over 80%, the Dolphins were 6-1.
This year, he’s hit this mark five times, and now Miami is 11-1 when he plays over 80% of the snaps. So, math majors don’t need to tell you that, in 2023, Miami will be unbeaten when Van Ginkel plays at this rate.
He played 82% of the snaps against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday and had 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks, four quarterback hits (tied a career-high), a tackle for loss and a pass defensed.
Van Ginkel’s lone other occurrence with four quarterback hits was back in 2021 in a win against the Carolina Panthers.
To add a more direct correlation to the Dolphins truly winning when he plays often, when he has multiple quarterback hits in a game over his career, Miami is 8-3.
Lastly, in direct comparison to some of the league’s elite pass-rushers, Van Ginkel is among the best. Van Ginkel, along with Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson and Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, are the only players with at least four sacks, five passes defensed, one interception, seven tackles for loss and 10 quarterback hits this season.
What’s mind-boggling is the 2023 seasonal snap counts:
Hutchinson: 91%
Watt: 84%
Van Ginkel: 67%.
And, if you want to talk about 2023 salary, the numbers are as you would expect. Hutchinson’s 2023 cap hit on the Lions is $8.1 million, and Watt costs the Steelers $29 million against their 2023 cap.
Van Ginkel costs the Dolphins $2.6 million in 2023. That’ll certainly change one way or another, but Van Ginkel’s stock is rising each week, and it’d behoove the Dolphins to re-invest in their 2019 fifth-round draft pick IPO of an OLB.