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The Detroit Tigers (70-70) and San Diego Padres (80-61) play the finale of a 3-game series Thursday at PETCO Park at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-0
The Tigers dropped their 2nd straight with a 6-5 defeat in 10 innings Wednesday. The Tigers were up 5-0 in the 4th and didn’t score the rest of the game. OF Matt Vierling hit his 16th HR in the loss. The Tigers remain 5 1/2 out of a Wild Card spot.
The Padres have won 3 straight and trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 1/2 in the NL West and hold the top Wild Card spot. OF Jackson Merrill hit his 22nd HR Wednesday. He’s now hitting .294 with 22 homers, 82 RBIs and 16 steals.
Tigers at Padres projected starters
RHP Casey Mize vs. LHP Martin Perez
Mize (2-6, 4.25 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 84 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K Saturday against the Boston Red Sox
- Has never faced Padres
- Road/Home splits: 2-3, 5.05 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 8 road GS; 0-3, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 9 home GS
Perez (4-5, 4.71 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 114 2/3 IP with Pittsburgh Pirates and Padres.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K Saturday against Tampa Bay Rays
- Last 5 starts vs. Tigers: 0-1, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 21 K in 27 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Tigers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:41 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Tigers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
I like the ‘dogs here. Padres closer Robert Suarez has pitched 3 of the last 4 days, and I doubt he’s available. Mize’s road numbers are no bueno, but he has been good in his last 2 roadies. He allowed 2 ER over 9 1/3 IP against the LA Angels and Atlanta Braves.
Take the TIGERS +140 to avoid the sweep.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m going with CASEY MIZE OVER 15.5 OUTS (-125), which would have cashed in his last 2 starts. The former No. 1 overall pick looks to finish the season strong.
Over/Under
It’s slated to be 82 degrees with a 10-mph wind blowing in from left-center. The Over is 2-2-1 in the last 5 meetings between the clubs over the last 2 years. Detroit is 3-6-1 O/U in their last 10, and San Dawg is 5-4-1. The wind is a big factor for me here. Take the UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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