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The Detroit Tigers (23-24) and Kansas City Royals (30-19) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Detroit was felled 8-3 in Monday’s series opener and is now 2-2 on a road trip that opened with 3 weekend games in Phoenix.
The surprising Royals have won 4 in a row (while logging a plus-15 in run differential) and are now 19-6 across their last 25 games at Kauffman Stadium.
Tigers at Royals projected starters
RHP Casey Mize vs. RHP Alec Marsh
Mize (1-2, 3.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 9th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 43 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-0 loss vs. Miami Marlins Wednesday
- Career vs. Royals: 2-1, 4.57 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 40 H, 10 BB, 27 K in 8 starts
- Scuffled in a May 4 outing at Yankee Stadium but still owns a 3.18 ERA over his last 5 starts
Marsh (3-1, 2.43 ERA) is making his 8th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 37 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss at Seattle Mariners Wednesday
- Has never faced Tigers before
- Is a fly-ball pitcher who has benefited from a low 7.1% rate of flies leaving the yard; has also pitched through the lesser traffic of a .248 batting average on balls in play
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Tigers at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Tigers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Royals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+155) | Royals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Tigers at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 6, Royals 4
Moneyline
Despite Monday’s setback, Detroit (-105) is 4-2 over its last 6 games at Kansas City and 7-2 across its last 9 games overall against the Royals.
There is some fairly significant fade to the home side here. But with a likable Over and a good price, the Run Line is the best leverage target here. PASS.
Against the RL, the Tigers are 15-9 on the road.
From an analytics standpoint, Kansas City pitching has gotten by with some generous rates around the margins (a .251 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position, for example). Alec Marsh is emblematic of a staff too far out over its skis: He’s been aided by generous rates around the margins all around.
In a contest with a brink outward-blowing breeze in the forecast, Detroit starts a ground-baller, and KC counters with a fly-baller. Despite how surface numbers may read, the Tigers have the better bullpen by a solid margin. Detroit has played well on the road.
TAKE THE TIGERS -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under
The Over has gone 14-9-1 in the Tigers’ road games; that includes 6 straight Overs the last 6 road games.
With a little bit of fade to Mize’s numbers and a lotta-bit of fade to Marsh’s, plus a possible downwind jet stream blowing out to right (and Detroit likely has the more left-leaning lineup), BACK THE OVER 9 (-115).
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