The Detroit Lions (1-3) visit the New England Patriots (1-3) Sunday in Week 5. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Lions vs. Patriots, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Both teams are on 2-game slides after losing their openers and winning in Week 2.
The big news is the Patriots will start 3rd-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe. Starter Mac Jones is out with an ankle injury – suffered during a 37-26 home loss in Week 3 to the Baltimore Ravens – and backup Brian Hoyer is on IR with a concussion – sustained in last week’s 27-24 OT loss at the Green Bay Packers.
Zappe played most of the Packers game, entering on the Patriots’ 2nd series when Hoyer was hurt. In his unexpected NFL debut, the 4th-round 2022 draft pick out of Western Kentucky completed 10 of 15 passes for 99 yards with a TD and no picks as New England, the NFL’s biggest underdog of the week, covered a 10-point spread in the loss.
Detroit lost 48-45 at home to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4, failing to cover the spread for the 1st time this season. The Lions, who were 3-point favorites, couldn’t stop the Seahawks offense, which never had to punt and finished with 555 yards, including 235 on the ground. Detroit did have more 1st downs (19-14) and more passing yards (375-320), but it could never get over the hump after falling into a 7-0 hole on Seattle’s opening drive.
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Lions at Patriots odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lions +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Patriots -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Lions +3.5 (-120) | Patriots -3.5 (-101)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Lions at Patriots key injuries
Lions
- C Evan Brown (ankle) questionable
- WR DJ Chark (ankle) out
- DL Charles Harris (groin) out
- OL Jonah Jackson (finger) questionable
- WR Josh Reynolds (ankle) questionable)
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) questionable
- RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) out
Patriots
- S/KR Kyle Dugger (knee) questionable
- DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder) out
- QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) out
- QB Mac Jones (ankle) doubtful
- LB Raekwon McMillan (thumb) questionable
- WR Jakobi Meyers (knee) questionable
- CB Jalen Mills (hamstring) questionable
- S Adrian Phillips (ribs) questionable
- TE Jonnu Smith (ankle) doubtful
- OL Isaiah Wynn (hip) questionable
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Lions at Patriots picks and predictions
Prediction
Lions 31, Patriots 17
Moneyline
BET 0.25 UNITS ON DETROIT (+145).
The Lions haven’t won a road game since Week 13 of the 2020 season (at the Chicago Bears 34-30), but with the Patriots’ QB situation, Detroit has a distinct advantage Sunday.
While Zappe surprised many by keeping New England in last week’s game at Green Bay after Hoyer’s exit, the truth of the matter is the Packers are not that good.
Expect coach Dan Campbell to have the Lions more than ready for this game as they snap their road losing streak.
Against the spread
DETROIT +3.5 (-120) is the STRONGEST PLAY – usually 1½ times your usual wager, but let’s make it 1.25 TIMES since we’re playing a quarter unit on the ML.
- ATS records: Lions 3-1 | Patriots 1-2-1
Be warned: Detroit’s defense is not good. It ranks last in yards (444.8) and points (35.3) allowed per game.
But I don’t see New England’s offense being productive with a backup to the backup QB.
Offensively, Detroit leads the NFL in yards (436.8) and points (35.0) per game. The Patriots are 19th (341.3 YPG) and 23rd (18.5 PPG), respectively.
Defensively, the Patriots allow 346.8 yards (19th) and 24.5 points (24th) per game.
Over/Under
BACK OVER 45.5 (-112) for 0.75 UNITS.
- O/U records: Lions 4-0 | Patriots 2-2
If the Patriots had a more experienced QB, this would have been the “strongest play.” The line likely would be higher with a better New England QB, but the offensive and defensive stats mentioned above speak for themselves.
Plus, the Over is 7-0 in the last 7 Patriots’ home games, while it is 6-0 in the Lions’ last 6 games overall.
The reason for doubt in not playing a full unit is the question marks revolving around New England’s offense with Zappe under center.
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