If there was ever a season where a non-quarterback was going to win the NFL MVP award, this felt like the season in which that would happen up until about two weeks ago when everyone realized how great Dak Prescott is at football.
The quarterback of the Cowboys currently leads the NFL in touchdown passes, is second in QBR, and third in passer rating. Since Week 6, though, Prescott is blowing the rest of the league out of the water. In that span, Dak leads all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in adjusted EPA/play and success rate.
Over his last eight games, Prescott is averaging 305.5 yards/ game with 23 touchdowns and just two interceptions- the Cowboys are 7-1 in that span. Prescott is the MVP of the league at this very moment- it would be a challenge to argue that. But who is behind him?
Some say Brock Purdy. Some say Jalen Hurts. Maybe Lamar Jackson if you want to be different. But if you want to be right, you say the quarterback who will be standing on the opposite sideline of Prescott this coming Sunday- Josh Allen.
You see, amidst all of the Bills’ self-inflicted wounds to the foot, as well as their head coach apologizing for rallying them through the power of 9/11. No. 17 has played as well as anyone in the NFL this season.
He leads the league in total touchdowns with 35- the next closest player has 31. He also leads the NFL in total offensive yards. Allen is also fourth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite and he is third in the league in EPA/play.
Now, 49ers fans can, and will, argue until they are blue in the face about how Brock Purdy is first in EPA and adjusted EPA and average net yards per attempt- all of which is true. Bills fans can argue right back, though, between bites of blue cheese-drenched wings and say that what Allen is currently doing in Buffalo is more impressive because of the lack of talent he has around him. And if that is the argument in which a side needs to be picked, I’m team blue cheese.
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And by the way, this isn’t supposed to be a piece bashing Brock Purdy or make it sound as if he doesn’t make any plays- he’s good, and he does. Rather, this is highlighting how much Allen has elevated a largely mediocre team around him. Do you know who Allen’s leading receiver was against the Chiefs? If you guessed Stefon Diggs you were wrong. Dalton Kincaid? Nope. His running back, James Cook. Diggs was limited to just four catches for 24 yards. While Diggs is still one of the best receivers in the game, the Bills have struggled to find a legitimate No. 2 to compliment him and the offense.
Gabe Davis was supposed to be Buffalo’s No. 2 receiver, and he looked poised to break out last season after that four touchdown performance in the Divisional round game against Kansas City. Instead, he has five games this season where he as one or zero receptions- he is a complete non-factor and disappears in the biggest moments. Or when he does show up, he’s turning the wrong way away from catching the game-winning touchdown in overtime.
Dalton Kincaid has been a nice piece, but there isn’t a home-run quality to a tight end. Allen is putting up these ungodly numbers with the likes of Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield, and the aforementioned Davis as his “compliments” to Stefon Diggs. That’s a far cry from having Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, and the best play designer in the league, as well as a top five defense in football that added Chase Young at the trade deadline. If Josh Allen doesn’t go off every week, or hit a fadeaway jumper to Latavius Murray like he’s Dirk Nowitzki in the post, the Bills don’t win. Not just against Kansas City, but in just about every game they play.
What we are going to see Sunday is not just a battle of the playoff hungry Bills who need all the wins they can muster in the final month of the season facing off against a Cowboys team that has won seven of their last eight. No, we are seeing the two quarterbacks that, at this point in time, are playing better than anyone else in the NFL at their position. And whomever comes away victorious will likely be the MVP frontrunner.