There are a lot of mock drafts floating around out there. In fact, I’m pretty sure that 10 new ones just popped up in the time it took me to write that sentence.
While the 2020 NFL draft will certainly be a different experience this year given the coronavirus pandemic and the travel restrictions that come along with it, teams are still doing their best to prepare for their time on the clock.
The Buccaneers hold the 14th pick after finishing 7-9 last season. With six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady now their quarterback, Tampa Bay will want to make sure Brady stays upright as much as possible. Most mock drafts seem to agree the Bucs will go with an offensive tackle in round one, but Cynthia Frelund’s analytics-based mock draft over at NFL.com says Tampa Bay should go defense.
Frelund’s mock draft doesn’t try to predict what teams will actually do. Instead, she looks to maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2020. Therefore, she has the Bucs selecting South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw.
Per Frelund:
“My model projects Kinlaw’s production at interior defensive line would add more to Tampa’s 2020 wins than any available O-lineman (adding right tackle Joe Haeg shifted this) or defensive back. Kinlaw’s Day 1 impact in Todd Bowles’ system forecasts to be most felt against the pass, which will help the Bucs’ young defensive backfield, as the front and back of defenses complement each other.”
Frelund may have a point. The Bucs had the league’s third-best scoring offense last season, averaging 28.6 points per game. Perhaps taking a solid defender in round one like Kinlaw might be more beneficial than an OT. After all, when you play in a division with both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, you need to be able to pressure the quarterback.
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