Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
After a hectic and unpredictable season, the College Football Playoff semifinals are happening on New Year’s Day, starting with No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl (which is not actually at the Rose Bowl) and followed by No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The undefeated Crimson Tide are heavy favorites against the Fighting Irish, while the spread for the Tigers and Buckeyes’ matchup is much smaller.
So ahead of this season’s CFP semifinals, here’s a quick breakdown of the teams (per ESPN’s FPI) and odds (according to BetMGM), what we’re looking for and, of course, our predictions for which teams end up in the national title game on January 11.
College Football Playoff semifinal: Rose Bowl
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0)
- Chance to win semifinal: 81.1 percent
- Chance to win national title: 52.4 percent
- Yards/game: 543.9
- Yards allowed/game: 351.2
- Average margin of victory: 30.2
- Spread: Alabama -20 (as of Dec. 30)
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1)
- Chance to win semifinal: 18.9 percent
- Chance to win national title: 5.5 percent
- Yards/game: 455.2
- Yards allowed/game: 335.1
- Average margin of victory: 16.6
College Football Playoff semifinal: Sugar Bowl
No. 2 Clemson Tigers (10-1)
- Chance to win semifinal: 50.0 percent
- Chance to win national title: 21.1 percent
- Yards/game: 507.6
- Yards allowed/game: 298.5
- Average margin of victory: 27.4
- Spread: Clemson -7 (as of Dec. 30)
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)
- Chance to win semifinal: 50.0 percent
- Chance to win national title: 21.0 percent
- Yards/game: 529.2
- Yards allowed/game: 358.0
- Average margin of victory: 21.5
Which teams will advance to the national championship game?
As of Wednesday, December 30, per BetMGM:
- Alabama vs. Clemson -250
- Alabama vs. Ohio State +280
- Notre Dame vs. Clemson +1000
- Notre Dame vs. Ohio State +2800
Predictions?
Evan’s prediction: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson
Michelle’s prediction: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson
Sure, this is the easy pick, but it just feels like we’re headed toward the fifth Alabama-Clemson College Football Playoff matchup.
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