College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting Boise State, Air Force In The Week 15 Top 25

The Broncos seem likely to move up in the new College Football Playoff rankings, but will the Falcons join them? We predict how it’ll look.

Projected College Football Playoff Poll: Week 15

  1. Ohio State

  2. LSU

  3. Clemson

  4. Georgia

  5. Oklahoma

  6. Utah

  7. Alabama

  8. Baylor

  9. wisconsin

  10. penn state

  11. Auburn

  12. Florida

  13. Oregon

  14. Minnesota

  15. Notre Dame

  16. Iowa

  17. Memphis

  18. Michigan

  19. Boise State

  20. USc

  21. Oklahoma State

  22. Kansas State

  23. Appalachian State

  24. Virginia

  25. Cincinnati

In sizing up a potential one-loss Boise State against a two-loss Cincinnati, I went back into the last five years to find similar results from the same juncture, the weekend before championship Saturday, and noted that past teams like 2018 Utah State, 2015 Mississippi State, and 2014 Minnesota fell out of the rankings entirely after a loss (five, five, and eight spots, respectively). 2017 Washington State and 2015 Florida fell by four and five spots, too, and all but the Aggies had a reasonable leg up on the Bearcats by strength of schedule.

With that in mind, I was tempted to call my shot and project that Cincinnati will fall out of the rankings entirely, but I think they’ll hang on with enough of a gap to ensure that even winning the AAC crown means they’re out of the New Year’s Six mix. The committee has shown a propensity to reward Power 5 teams with very tough schedules and, for instance, Oklahoma State and Kansas State and USC are essentially the same team at this point.

If Cincinnati drops out, though, I think SMU will snag that #25 spot despite Air Force’s hot streak, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Navy slip into that #25 spot on Selection Sunday if they beat Army and find themselves on equal ten-win footing with the Falcons and Mustangs.

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