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The Cleveland Guardians (57-35) and Tampa Bay Rays (46-47) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Tied 3-3 in 2023
The Guardians had a hard time in Detroit, dropping 3 of 4 games — 2 as favorites — Monday through Thursday. Cleveland was outscored 24-14 in the series, including an ugly 10-1 lambasting Thursday as +108 underdogs. The Over cashed in the final 3 games and is 5-1 in Cleveland’s past 6 outings, and 10-3 across the past 13 contests.
The Rays took 2 of 3 games from the visiting New York Yankees Tuesday through Thursday, while the total went 1-1-1 in the 3 outings. Tampa Bay won 5-4 as a +105 underdog. It is 8-4 in its past 12 home games, winning each of the past 4 home series 2 games to 1.
Cleveland and Tampa Bay met 3 times in St. Petersburg last season with the Rays winning 2 of those outings, both by 1 run and in walk-off fashion in the bottom of the 9th inning. In fact, the home team won 4 times in the 6 head-to-head meetings last season, and each won by just a single run in those outings.
Guardians at Rays projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Taj Bradley
Carrasco (3-6, 5.22 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 81 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 1-3, 5.68 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.31 WHIP, .254 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 14 BB, 33 K in 9 starts
- Career vs. Rays: 4-6, 3.67 ERA (76 IP, 31 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 11 starts and 2 relief appearances
Bradley (3-4, 3.23 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 61 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 loss at Texas Rangers Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 2-3, 1.76 ERA (41 IP, 8 ER), 0.88 WHIP, .153 OBA, 14 BB, 60 K in 7 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 1 road start, no-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 6-2 victory Sept. 3, 2023
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Rays -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Rays -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The RAYS (-140) are worth playing as moderate favorites in this series opener.
Carrasco has been shaky for the Guardians (+115), especially on the road, winning just 1 of his 4 decisions across 9 starts away from home. Plus, Cleveland had a rough time of it in Detroit earlier this week, and it looks like confidence is at an all-time low.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-175) aren’t playing great ball recently, but they’re still a very good team. As mentioned, the home team in last season’s 6 head-to-head contests went 4-2, winning all 4 by a single run. Games between Cleveland and Tampa Bay are usually close.
Over/Under
OVER 8 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over cashed in all 3 meetings in St. Petersburg last season. The total has gone high in 5 of the past 6 outings for the Guardians, while going 5-2 in the past 7 games on the road.
For the Rays, the Over is 2-1-1 in the past 4 games. At home, the total is a crazy 3-3-3 in the past 9 games for Tampa Bay.
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