The Cleveland Guardians (31-35) and the San Diego Padres (32-34) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Wednesday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 1-0
The Guardians lost 6-3 in the interleague series opener Tuesday against the Padres. Cleveland ranks 27th in the majors in runs scored (253), although it has been picking up the pace lately. The Guardians have managed 75 runs across the past 14 outings, or 5.36 runs per game (RPG). That’s quite a bit better than their overall average of 3.83 RPG this season.
Like Cleveland, San Diego has had trouble scoring runs, posting just 280 runs through 66 games. That’s the 2nd-lowest mark in the National League, ahead of only the lowly Washington Nationals. However, also like Cleveland, the Padres have picked up the pace lately, posting 32 runs across the past 5 games, or 6.4 RPG, well ahead of the season average of 4.24 RPG.
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Guardians at Padres projected starters
RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Civale (2-1, 2.31 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 23 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 10-3 home win vs. the Boston Red Sox last Thursday
- 2023 road splits: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (12 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K) with a .150 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
Wacha (6-2, 3.18 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 68 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 10-3 home win vs. the Seattle Mariners last Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 4-2, 2.93 ERA (40 IP, 13 ER – 4 HR) with a .205 OBA in 7 starts
Guardians at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The PADRES (-160) is a little on the pricey side, but worth it.
While the Guardians (+135) are 6-1 in the past 7 games following a loss, they’re just 4-10 in the past 14 interleague games and 5-11 in the previous 16 games on the road.
The Padres haven’t done that great in interleague games themselves, but San Diego has ripped off 4 wins in the last 5 games overall.
Run line/Against the spread
The PADRES -1.5 (+125) will take a little bit of a leap of faith. Playing San Diego to win by 2 or more runs has been a dicey proposition.
While it did cash in the series opener, San Diego is just 4-4 as a favorite on the run line in the last 8 games. Play it, but go lightly.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-115) might be the best play on the board.
Civale has been untouchable on the road through 2 starts, although the sample size is obviously pretty small. For Wacha, he has been solid at home, and he doesn’t allow a lot of long balls, not that Cleveland hits many to begin with.
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