The Cleveland Guardians (31-34) and San Diego Padres (31-34) meet Tuesday in the 1st game of a 3-game set in Southern California. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Cleveland won last year’s series 3-1
Cleveland took 2 of 3 games from the Houston Astros over the weekend and is 9-5 over its last 14 games. The Guardians — 27th in scoring on the season with 3.85 runs per game — own a robust .811 OPS while scoring 5.43 RPG along that 14-game span.
San Diego won 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies over the weekend, but failed to complete the sweep with a 5-4 loss Sunday. The Padres are 6-4 over their last 10 games and are 9 1/2 games back of the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks.
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Guardians at Padres projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Bibee (2-1, 3.05 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 44 1/3 IP.
- Is a 24-year-old rookie who has thus far benefited from a low 5.3% home runs/fly balls rate
- Made it to the majors after just 15 1/13 IP at Triple-A and 148 IP total in the minors
Musgrove (3-2, 4.35 ERA) makes his 9th start as well. He has notched a 1.33 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 41 1/3 IP.
- Got off to a slow start this season but owns a 1.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across his last 3 starts
- Has allowed just 2 HR over his last 33 IP
Guardians at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:48 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians +136 (bet $100 to win $136) | Padres -162 (bet $162 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-156) | Padres -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The Padres have started to bang around some extra-base hits of late. The OPS production and, in some games, run production is lagging behind due in part to a .231 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations since June 2.
Musgrove filed a sub-3.00 ERA at home in 2021 and 2022, and he figures to give the Friars 6 good innings and get them in the neighborhood of a 65% win probability.
TAKE SAN DIEGO (-162).
Run line/Against the spread
No one plays more 1-run games than Cleveland who have played 30 (!) so far. PASS on getting San Diego by with a cushion unless the return is +135 or so.
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Over/Under
The Under has hit in 5 straight Cleveland-San Diego games in Southern California.
The forecast calls for a double-digit breeze helping the pitchers. The UNDER 7.5 (-105) is worth a partial-unit play.
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