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The Cleveland Guardians (40-22) and Miami Marlins (22-31) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 7:35 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 2 of 3 in 2023
Cleveland lost the series opener 3-2 in Miami Friday. RHP Cade Smith gave up a go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the 8th inning. The Guardians wasted a terrific outing from LHP Logan Allen (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K). Cleveland’s only offense came on a 2-run home run from SS Brayan Rocchio in the top of the 3rd inning.
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. delivered for the Marlins in the 8th inning with an RBI single to break the tie. Marlins 1B Josh Bell and LF Bryan De La Cruz each homered in the 3rd inning to erase an early 2-run deficit. LHP Tanner Scott picked up his 5th win after getting the final 5 outs of the game.
Guardians at Marlins projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Roddery Munoz
Lively (5-2, 2.84 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 home victory over Washington Nationals Saturday
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 3-2 road victory with Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 31, 2017
Munoz (1-1, 5.17 ERA) makes his 4th start. The rookie has a 1.21 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 15 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-3 loss at Los Angeles Dodgers May 6
- Has never faced Guardians before
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Guardians at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -166 (bet $166 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+105) | Marlins +1.5 (-126)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Guardians at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Marlins 2
Moneyline.
PASS.
I love the Guardians (-166) in this matchup Saturday, but I’ll avoid paying that juice and keep my wager to the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET GUARDIANS -1.5 (+105).
Cleveland has the 3rd-best record in MLB, while the Marlins have the 3rd-worst. I know that seems like simple analysis, but those are the facts. The Guardians are a much better team top to bottom.
Lively has been good all season but took it too another level when the calendar turned to May. He’s 5-1 over his last 6 starts dating back to May 4 and hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season.
Munoz looked good against the Cubs and Rockies in his 1st 2 career starts but got his welcome to the big leagues from the Dodgers. They rocked him for 6 ER over 4 2/3 IP.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-122).
The trends have me loving this bet. These teams are 1-4 to the Over in their last 5 head-to-head meetings, including Friday. Cleveland is also 1-4 to the Over in its last 5 games overall.
Lively hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. The Guardians will keep the Marlins from running up the score.
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