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The Miami Marlins (21-41) welcome the Cleveland Guardians (40-21) to loanDepot Park in Miami for the opener of a 3-game series Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 2-1 in 2023
The Guardians, who sit atop the AL Central, split a 2-game series with the Kansas City Royals, losing 4-3 as -171 home favorites Thursday. Cleveland is 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in its last 5 games. The Guardians are 13-3 over their last 16 and are 19-13 on the road overall. For the season, they are 35-26 ATS, which is tied for the 6th-best cover rate in MLB, according to Teamrankings.com.
The Marlins, who are last in the NL East, have been struggling to find any consistency from their pitching staff. They’ve lost 4 straight — 2 at home to Tampa Bay and 2 at home to Texas — giving up at least 5 runs in all 4 of those games. The Marlins lost 5-3 as +115 underdogs to the Rays Wednesday before having Thursday off. Miami is 11-23 at home this season and own the majors’ worst ATS record at 25-37.
Guardians at Marlins projected starters
LHP Logan Allen vs. LHP Ryan Weathers
Allen (6-3, 5.83 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 58 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 7-4 road defeat at Colorado Rockies May 29
- 2024 road splits: 4-3, 4.84 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 6 HR, 7.6 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 1 start last season
Weathers (3-5, 3.41 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 68 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 11 K in 7-0 home blanking by Texas Rangers Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 5.33 ERA (27 IP, 16 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 32.40 ERA (1 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 7 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 relief outing last season with San Diego Padres
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Guardians at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:58 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+136) | Marlins +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Marlins 3
Moneyline
BET GUARDIANS (-120).
Miami is just 8-12 SU this year as a home underdog, while Cleveland is 8-7 SU as a road favorite. Both teams are coming off a loss, and in that situation, the Guardians as the 3rd-best team in MLB with a 14-6 record, while the Marlins are the 3rd worst at 14-26.
Miami has struggled to keep runners off the bases, while the Guardians have tallied at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 13 games. Expect the road favorites to come out on top. BET GUARDIANS (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
It’s a little risky asking Cleveland (-1.5, +136) to win by at least 2 runs on the road. Plus, we’re already backing the Guardians on the moneyline. So, no need to double down.
Meanwhile, Miami (+1.5, -164) is too expensive of an underdog. The more risk inclined could look at Cleveland with some value, but ultimately, the best play is on the moneyline.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Guardians are 5-3-1 O/U in their last 9 games and have allowed at least 4 runs in 3 straight. They are 30-27-4 O/U on the season and are 2-0-1 O/U in Allen’s last 3 starts.
The Marlins have gone Over in 2 straight and in 4 of their last 6. They are 43-28 O/U on the season and have either scored 5 or allowed 5 in 6 straight games. With that in mind, BACK OVER 7.5 (-115).
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