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The Cleveland Guardians (78-59) and Kansas City Royals (75-63) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 7-3
The Guardians land in Kansas City looking to exact a little revenge. Cleveland dropped 3 of 4 games in a series Aug. 26-28 at Progressive Field. Cleveland bounced back by taking 2 of 3 games from the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend.
The Royals suffered a 4-game sweep against the Houston Astros on the road this weekend, and Kansas City has dropped 5 in a row to slip 3½ games back of the 1st-place Guardians. The Over has cashed in 7 of the past 11 outings for the Royals while going 2-2 in 4 games against the Guards.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Gavin Williams vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Williams (2-7, 4.99 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home setback vs. Royals Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 2-2, 3.03 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.15 WHIP, .205 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11 BB, 28 K in 6 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 1-1, 2.08 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1 HR, 0.97 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 4 starts
Wacha (11-6, 3.50 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 139 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 7 K in 7-5 road loss vs. Guardians Wednesday
- 2024 home splits: 6-1, 3.13 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP, .254 OBA, 16 BB, 53 K in 11 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 2-0, 2.48 ERA (29 IP, 8 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Royals -118 (bet $118 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+162) | Royals +1.5 (-196)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The ROYALS (-118) are worth a look in the series opener. Kansas City has had its way with the Guardians (+100) so far this season, winning 7 of the 11 meetings, including 7 of the past 9.
Kansas City is worth playing against Williams, who has really struggled. He is 2-7 on the season, although he has been slightly better at home. Still, Wacha has been more consistent, and that makes the Royals the play.
Run line/Against the spread
Playing Royals +1.5 (-196) is a little too expensive, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return. There is no reason to play Kansas City on the run line laying that kind of money. There is no value if you require a little insurance. If you like the Royals, just play them straight up.
PASS.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-122) is worth a look, even if Williams has been a little erratic this season.
Most of the problems for Williams have actually been at home. He has excelled on the road, posting a respectable 3.03 ERA. Wacha has been solid regardless of the venue, giving the Royals nice veteran leadership. This won’t be a pitchers’ duel, but it won’t be a slugfest, either.
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