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The Cleveland Guardians (51-28) and Kansas City Royals (45-38) play the 2nd contest of a 4-game series Friday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 2-1
The Guardians suffered a 2-1 loss in the series opener Thursday as the Under (9) easily cashed. Cleveland has dropped 2 in a row, and the 3 runs scored are tied for their fewest in consecutive outings since May 2-3.
The Under is on a 4-2-1 run for the Guardians, and the total has gone low in each of the past 2 meetings with the Royals.
The Royals improved to 28-15 at home, and they’re 3-1 in the past 4 games since a 3-game sweep at Texas June 21-23.
Kansas City continues to be a favorite of total bettors as the Under has cashed in 6 straight, while going 8-0-1 in the past 9 outings. The Under is also 11-2-1 in K.C.’s previous 14 contests.
Make sure to check the weather before finalizing your bets. There is a 45% chance of precipitation from 7 p.m. CT through 10 p.m. CT.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Alec Marsh
McKenzie (3-4, 4.66 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 73 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H (2 HR), 4 BB, 6 K in 6-5 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 4.28 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.24 WHIP, .219 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 26 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 4-2, 3.19 ERA (62 IP, 22 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8 HR, 9.1 K/9 in 10 starts and 2 relief appearances
Marsh (5-5, 4.40 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 75 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-0 setback at Texas Rangers Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 3-1, 3.58 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.19 WHIP, .236 OBA, 3 HR, 12 BB, 33 K in 7 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-1, 9.00 ERA (7 IP, 7 ER), 2.14 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Royals 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-130) are minor favorites against the Royals (+105), who nipped Cleveland in the series opener Thursday.
McKenzie has actually looked a lot more comfortable on the road, and his control is much better, too. As mentioned, the Cleveland right-hander has just 11 walks, a .219 OBA and 1.24 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings in 5 road starts, while issuing 35 free passes with 13 homers allowed and a 1.65 WHIP in 10 home outings.
Trust McKenzie to help the Guardians get back in the win column, especially if they are able to get the offense going again.
Run line/Against the spread
The ROYALS +1.5 (-150) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance, and you just cannot trust Kansas City straight up.
Kansas City is just 1-4 in the past 5 games as an underdog on the run line, so be careful and go with a half-unit play at most.
Over/Under
UNDER 10 (-115) is a solid play, and frankly, it’s shocking to see double digits on the board with the way the Royals have been going.
The Under has cashed in 6 straight games for Kansas City, while going 8-0-1 in the past 9 outings, and 11-2-1 in the past 14 contests. The Under has hit in 2 straight games against the Guardians, too.
The total has gone low in 3 of the past 4 games for Cleveland, while going Under in 9 of the previous 12 contests.
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