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The Cleveland Guardians (20-10) take on the Houston Astros (10-20) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Guardians outlasted the Astros 3-2 in 10 innings Wednesday as OF Steven Kwan hit a go-ahead RBI double in the top half of the inning. The Guardians are 6-4 over their last 10 and improved to 12-6 on the road. They are 9-3 against the AL West.
The Astros snapped a 3-game winning streak with the Wednesday setback. They had come out of their offensive slumber with 8+ runs in 3 straight games. The Astros are 3rd in baseball with a .263 average and tied for 7th with 36 homers, but they’re tied for 15th with 4.5 R/game. Their 4.89 ERA is 27th in the game.
Guardians at Astros projected starters
LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti
Allen (3-1, 5.46 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K Friday against the Atlanta Braves
- 1 career start vs. HOU: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Arrighetti (0-3, 10.97 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.34 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K April 24 against Chicago Cubs
- Has never faced Guardians
- All of his pitches are being hit: 4-seamer (.318 BA), cutter (.417), sweeper (.429), curveball (.286), changeup (1.000)
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Guardians at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:56 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Astros 4
Moneyline
With how bad Arrighetti has looked, a simple fade on him for plus-money on Cleveland is the way to go. The Astros are off to a terrible start, but I liken them to the NHL’s Edmonton Oilers, who had a ton of talent but got off to a miserable start before turning it around.
That’s not happening today, though.
Take the GUARDIANS +110.
Run line/Against the spread
The Guardians are 22-8 on the RL this season and 14-4 on the road. Meanwhile, Houston is 11-19 and 5-10 at home on the RL.
Take the GUARDIANS -1.5 (+165) for the value.
Over/Under
The Astros are 1-8-1 O/U over their last 10, and Cleveland is 4-5-1. We have hit 1 Over and 1 Under in the series. Wednesday’s Under featured a matchup of 2 stud pitchers, and this one features the opposite end of the spectrum.
LEAN OVER 9 (-105).
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