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The Cleveland Guardians (19-10) and Houston Astros (10-19) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 1-0
The Guardians lost a wild 10-9 game in 10 innings in the series opener. Cleveland took a 3-0 lead in the top of the 1st inning, but it fell behind 8-3 after 4 frames. The Guardians rallied for 5 runs to tie things up in the top of the 6th, and it led 9-8 after the top of the 10th. But the Astros walked it off on a Victor Caratini 2-run HR off of LHP Hunter Gaddis.
The Astros have pieced together a season-high 3-game winning streak, but remain in last place in the AL West Division. Houston has averaged 10.0 runs per game in the past 3 outings, aided by 2 games played at high elevation in Mexico City over the weekend.
RHP Justin Verlander will be making his 1st home start of the 2024 season, as he looks to keep the Houston win streak going.
Guardians at Astros projected starters
RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Justin Verlander
McKenzie (2-2, 4.91 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.68 WHIP, 7.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 22 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 H (0 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 6-4 home win vs. Boston Red Sox last Thursday
- 2023 road splits: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 4 H, 2 B, 2 K in 5-4 road loss vs. Seattle Mariners on April 1
Verlander (1-0, 1.74 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs last Thursday
- 2023 home splits: 6-5, 2.23 ERA, 86 1/3 IP, 32 R (31 ER), 74 H (12 HR), 19 BB, 82 K with .226 opponents’ batting average and 1.08 WHIP in 14 starts
- Career vs. Cleveland: 23-24, 4.45 ERA, 345 2/3 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 123 BB, 364 K in 55 starts
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Guardians at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The Astros (-175) are a little on expensive side, although Verlander has fired out of the gate in his 2 previous starts, both on the road. Against a good team in his home season debut, this play would come with some risk.
PASS, and look to the run line instead for a little better of a value.
Run line/Against the spread
The ASTROS -1.5 (+110) are a good play at plus-money on the run line.
Verlander has had a tough time with Cleveland in his career, one of a handful of teams he has a career sub-.500 record against. His career ERA against the Guardians franchise is actually his highest against any opponent. However, he was also on some bad Detroit teams during a majority of that span, while Cleveland was quite good.
The Astros are playing their best baseball of the season, and Verlander is a safe play, especially against the walk-happy McKenzie.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-110) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.
Verlander has been humming along, but McKenzie’s penchant for walks and the occasional long ball is concerning. Plus, these teams did just combine for 19 runs in the series opener. However, Houston had cashed the Under at a 10-0-1 clip in the 11 games prior to Tuesday, too.
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