The Cleveland Guardians (53-54) and the Houston Astros (60-47) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Series tied 2-2
The Guardians made some headlines Monday, trading away RHP Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor-league slugger prospect 1B Kyle Manzardo. Cleveland went on to lose 7-3 in Monday’s series opener in Houston despite a solid effort from new pitcher RHP Noah Syndergaard. However, “Thor” was hit in the leg by a comebacker and forced to leave the game after allowing just 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings of work.
The Astros fell behind 2-0 Monday but rolled up 7 unanswered runs before the Guardians meekly answered with just 1 run in the top of the 9th inning. OF Yordano Alvarez had the big blow with a 3-run homer off of RHP Eli Morgan in the 6th inning after Syndergaard exited.
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Guardians at Astros projected starters
RHP Gavin Williams vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Williams (1-2, 3.35 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 8-3 home win vs. Kansas City Royals Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 0-1, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER – 0 HR), .132 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
Valdez (8-7, 3.29 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 126 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 13-5 home loss vs. Texas Rangers Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 3-5, 2.74 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 23 ER – 4 HR), .244 OBA in 12 starts
Guardians at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-130) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The Astros (-200) will cost you twice as much as your potential return, and that’s just too much risk and not enough reward. Betting heavy favorites like this can be lucrative, but just a couple of losses can wash all of the good progress away in a hurry.
PASS, and look to the run line instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The ASTROS -1.5 (+105) covered the run line as favorites in the series opener Monday, and are a good bet to do so again Tuesday. The Astros have covered twice in the past 3 games as a favorite, too.
Valdez was tuned up by the rival Rangers last time out and has concerningly allowed 15 runs across the past 15 innings. Still, the Cleveland bats have been rather quiet, cobbling together just 10 total runs of offense in the past 4 games. As such, the play is on Houston as a favorite on the run line.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105) is the slight lean, after the total was an Over (9.5) on Monday.
The Under is 2-1-1 in the past 4 games for the Guardians and is a perfect 3-for-3 in the past 3 games for the Astros. Still, I expect Valdez to keep the Guardians bats quiet, and Williams has been fairly effective, albeit with a smaller sample size.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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