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The Washington Nationals (44-53) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (47-50) to Nationals Park Friday to kick off a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1
Prior to the All-Star break, the Reds had won 5 of their last 7 games and 3 of their last 4. They are coming off a 3-2 home loss to the Miami Marlins Sunday in a series in which the Reds won 2 of 3 games. Cincinnati is 22-22 on the road this season and 53-44 against the spread (ATS) overall.
The Nationals won 2 of 3 games at the Milwaukee Brewers in their last series, losing the Sunday finale 9-3. Washington has struggled over the last few weeks and is just 2-6 since July 7. The Nationals are 20-24 at home this season and 54-43 ATS overall.
Reds at Nationals projected starters
RHP Frankie Montas vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Montas (4-7, 4.38 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 84 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-5 home setback to Colorado Rockies July 10
- 2024 away splits: 3-2, 4.24 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 8 HR, 7.4 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 1-0, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K in 3 appearances (1 start), including 1-0 with 0.00 ERA (6 IP) in 1 start this year
Corbin (1-9, 5.57 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 105 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 6-2 road defeat to New York Mets July 10
- 2024 home splits: 0-3, 5.64 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8 HR, 6.4 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 5-5, 4.50 ERA (90 IP, 45 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 16 appearances (15 starts), including 0-0 with 8.31 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start this season
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Reds at Nationals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:33 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds -124 (bet $124 to win $100) | Nationals +106 (bet $100 to win $106)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Reds -1.5 (+132) | Nationals +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Reds at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Nationals 4
Moneyline
BET REDS (-124).
The Reds have won 3 straight road games, sweeping the New York Yankees in their last series away from home. Cincinnati had won 3 of its last 4 heading into the break and could make a playoff run in the 2nd half of the season.
The Nationals started off the season well but have gone 6-14 over their last 20 games. They have lost the last 4 games in which Corbin has started. Washington is just 15-19 as a home underdog.
Considering those trends, take REDS (-124).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Reds have the better option on the mound and were consistently winning heading into the All-Star break. However, they are too risky on the run line as road favorites. Similarly, the Nationals are too expensive as home underdogs.
Avoid a run-line play.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-115).
The Reds offense was hot heading into the break. They scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games and at least 5 in 6 of their last 7. Cincinnati is 5-1 O/U in its last 6 and went north of the projected total in Montas’ last 2 starts.
The Nationals went Over in their last 2 games as well, scoring at least 5 runs in 2 of their last 3. They are 6-4 O/U in Corbin’s last 10 starts. Considering those trends, back OVER 8.5 (-115).
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