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The Cincinnati Reds (15-13) and San Diego Padres (14-17) meet Monday as they open a 3-game set in Southern California. The first pitch in Monday’s series opener at PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; last season the clubs played to a 3-3 split
Cincinnati is continuing a road trip that opened with the club dropping 2 of 3 weekend games at the Texas Rangers. The Reds have slashed a .176/.266/.232 while going 1-3 over their last 4 games.
The Padres tote a 4-game losing streak into this series. Over the 4 losses (with the last 3 coming at home against the Philadelphia Phillies), San Diego pitching allowed 11 home runs while clocking an 8.23 ERA.
Reds at Padres projected starters
LHP Nick Lodolo vs. RHP Matt Waldron
Lodolo (2-0, 2.12 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has logged a 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 17 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 7-4 win vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
- Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K
- Owns a 4.07 ERA across 29 career starts
Waldron (1-2, 3.96 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has registered a 1.44 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 25 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 5-2 win at Colorado Rockies Wednesday
- Career vs. Reds: 0-0, 5.79 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K
- Owns a 4.21 ERA across 66 1/3 career IP
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Reds at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Reds 3
Moneyline
The Reds are 1-11 across their last dozen games at Petco. Last season, the Padres outscored Cincy 16-6 while taking 2 of 3 in the series games played in Southern California.
Lodolo figures to see a lot of right-handed bats in the Padres lineup. Righties got to him for a robust 1.071 OPS last season.
The other side of the platoon numbers shows the Reds being a swing-and-miss bunch against right-handers (28.7% strikeout rate, .668 OPS).
Add in the Cincy bullpen likely being a bit too far over its skis with a 3.75 ERA; the Reds have benefited from yielding just a .270 batting average on balls in play.
BACK THE PADRES (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
These tags bring more juice into play. STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
The Under has cashed in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games on the road.
Both offenses have some BABIP figures that have over-inflated run scoring a bit. In high-leverage situations, both clubs rank in the league’s top-5 in OPS, but both have registered BABIP numbers over .320 in those situations.
With the contest being in a pitcher’s park, TAKE THE UNDER 8 (-115).
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