The Cincinnati Reds (12-16) and San Diego Padres (15-14) open up a 3-game set at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. San Diego won 6-0 in 2022.
The Reds had a 5-game win streak snapped with a 5-4 loss at the Oakland Athletics Sunday. Their young arms are carrying them as the Reds are 4th in baseball with 9.80 strikeouts/game. The Reds are just 3-10 on the road to start the season but they are 7-3 against lefties, which they face Monday.
The Friars are starting to heat up as they’re 7-3 over their last 10 games. They’re doing it with 3B Manny Machado hitting .236, and OF Juan Soto hitting just .202 to start the season. The Padres are hitting just .227 as a team (25th) and are 20th with 4.24 runs/9.
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Reds at Padres projected starters
RHP Luke Weaver vs. LHP Blake Snell
Weaver (0-1, 7.71 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 through 11 2/3 IP.
- Has made just 3 starts since 2021 due to injuries; has allowed 19 ER over 15 1/3 IP across those outings
- Last 5 starts vs. San Diego (2019-21): 1-3, 4.87 ERA, 20 K in 20 1/3 IP
Snell (0-4, 5.48 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.87 WHIP, 7.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 23 IP.
- Last start vs. Chicago Cubs Tuesday: 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K
- Has never faced the Reds
- Has at least 3 BB and 5 K in each of his last 4 starts
Reds at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-105) | Padres -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Reds at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 8, Padres 6
Moneyline
I’m going to go out on a limb and go with the Reds here. The Padres have the talent to make this a foolish take, but the Reds stacked up some wins lately. They are an aforementioned 7-3 against left-handed starters. The Padres have lost each of Snell’s 5 starts this year. Weaver is a former top prospect that has 8 K’s in each start, his stuff is still there.
I’ll take the REDS (+185).
Run line/Against the spread
To further illustrate my ML take, the Reds are led by young, hungry hitters like 2B Jonathan India hitting .287 with a .393 OBP atop the order. OF TJ Friedl is hitting .301 with a .353 OBP. They also sport an improved bullpen at a respectable 3.55 ERA (T-11th). The Padres’ pen is 22nd with a 4.43 ERA.
There’s a lot to like with REDS +1.5 (-105).
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Over/Under
The park might play a little bigger Monday at 58 degrees with an 11-mph wind going toward the right-field foul pole. Snell has spotted at least 2 ER per start and hasn’t gone past the 5th inning all year. Combine that with a bad bullpen, and Over 8.5 looks very reasonable. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Take the OVER 8.5 (-110).
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