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The New York Mets (68-80) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (78-72) to Citi Field Sunday. First pitch in the finale of the 3-game series is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 4-1
The Reds beat the Mets 5-3 to open up the series and then 3-2 Saturday, closing both games respectively as +103 and +101 underdogs. Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 and a strong 42-33 on the road this season.
The Reds sit 3rd in the NL Central and 7 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets sit 4th in the NL East and are 38-36 at home this season. They are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
Reds at Mets projected starters
LHP Brandon Williamson vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Williamson (4-4, 4.47 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 102 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 road win in 10 innings vs. the Detroit Tigers Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 2-2, 4.70 ERA in 51 2/3 IP over 11 starts
Quintana (2-5, 3.05 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 59 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home loss vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday
- 2023 home stats: 0-2, 2.05 ERA in 22 IP over 4 starts
Reds at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:37 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Reds 2
Moneyline
BET METS (-135).
Quintana has been strong at home, while the same cannot be said about Williamson on the road, so an edge in pitching should favor the Mets. Cincinnati was in this scenario last season in Detroit, having won 2 and entering the 3rd as an underdog. It lost 8-2. New York is 26-22 straight up as a home favorite this season.
Its offense tallied 7 or more runs in 3 straight games prior to playing Cincinnati and has scored 5 over the last 2. The Mets should be able to come alive against Williamson and win to avoid the sweep. Take METS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s just no value here. The Reds are far too pricey at -175 to play on the spread, and the Mets have to win in this series and haven’t played well against Cincinnati all season long.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9 (-115).
The Reds have gone Under in 4 of their last 7 games and are 2-4-1 O/U in that stretch. They have scored just 3.5 runs per game over their last 4. Cincinnati is 72-77-1 O/U on the season.
The Mets are 59-80-9 O/U, so it is clear which way has been better for bettors. They are 3-3-1 O/U in their last 7 and have gone 1-6 O/U in Quintana’s last 7 starts. Back UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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