The Cincinnati Reds (49-39) and Milwaukee Brewers (47-41) open an important 3-game set Friday at American Family Field. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 3-1
The upstart Reds are 8-2 over their last 10 games and 16-4 over their last 20. They’ve taken a 2-game lead over the Brew Crew in the NL Central. Cincinnati is coming off a 4-game sweep of the Washington Nationals and looks to win this series to buffer its lead before the All-Star break.
The Brewers are coming alive after a slow start. They’re 6-4 and 13-7 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively, and are 15-8 within the division. Milwaukee has struggled against lefties, though, which it’ll face Friday. The Brew Crew are just 12-16 against left-handed starters.
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Reds at Brewers projected starters
LHP Andrew Abbott vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 37 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 K Sunday against the San Diego Padres
- 1 career start vs. Brewers: 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 6 K June 5
Burnes (6-5, 4.00 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 101 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K Saturday against Pittsburgh Pirates
- Last 5 starts vs. Reds: 2-0, 2.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 41 K in 32 2/3 IP
Reds at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+165) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 4, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The Brewers have won 8 of the last 10 matchups against the Reds, but times are changing — especially on the mound — for the Reds. Abbott has entered the Rookie of the Year discussion with a great first 2 months and has struck out 30 batters over his last 3 starts. The Reds have no fear on the road at 26-18, and I look for them to limit the Brewers enough to take this one.
Roll with the REDS (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds are favored on the RL, and Milwaukee is priced out of range to take.
It’s a little risky, but the Brewers strike out the 4th-most frequently in baseball at 9.36 per game. Abbott has fanned at least 8 in 3 straight starts. Put a small bet on ANDREW ABBOTT OVER 7.5 K’S (+115).
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Over/Under
The Reds are 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and Milwaukee is 6-3-1. The Under has cashed 7 of the last 10 times they have faced one another. However, there has only been 1 total this low.
It could go either way, and I’m more comfortable paying the juice at a higher number. Take the ALTERNATE TOTAL UNDER 8.5 (-140).
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