The Milwaukee Brewers (56-46) and the Cincinnati Reds (56-47) conclude a 3-game series at American Family Field on Wednesday. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 9-3.
The Reds beat the Brewers 4-3 Tuesday after losing the opener of the series 3-2 Monday, covering both games. Cincinnati is 28-21 on the road this season and is 6-4 over its last 10 games.
The Brewers are a 1/2 game ahead of the Reds in the NL Central. Milwaukee, 6-4 over its last 10, is 28-24 at home. Five of the last 6 games between these teams have been decided by 1 run. Milwaukee is 21-10 in division games.
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Reds at Brewers projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Lively (4-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (3 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 9-6 home win versus the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday
- 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.81 ERA (26 IP, 11 ER) in 4 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-2, 3.78 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in 3 starts
Peralta (6-8, 4.72 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 103 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 R (6 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home loss versus the Atlanta Braves on Friday
- 2023 home stats: 4-4, 4.47 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 29 ER) in 11 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 5-2, 3.13 ERA (72 IP, 25 ER) in 12 starts
Reds at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Brewers 4
Moneyline
LEAN REDS (+120).
Cincinnati has been one of the streakiest teams in the MLB and is 35-20 straight up following a win. It is also 22-19 straight up as a road underdog which is the 7th-highest road underdog win rate in the league.
The Brewers have not been great this season with Peralta on the mound, just 9-10. He has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 of his last 5 games, and with runs at a premium in this series, that could be problematic.
For a small unit, take REDS (+120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Reds +1.5 (-165) is a safe play given how close this series has been, but I wouldn’t suggest laying the juice here. Similarly, the Brewers have been able to consistently beat the Reds, but they haven’t done it by a wide margin, making -1.5 (+140) also a tough sell.
Cincinnati is 30-11 on the run line as a road underdog. Regardless, it is too expensive to play here.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-120).
Peralta has consistently allowed runs, and both teams showed some life in the final innings of Tuesday’s game, scoring 5 combined runs in the 9th.
The Reds are also 34-21 O/U following a win, the best Over percentage in the MLB. The Reds have scored 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 6 games. Having scored just 6 total runs in the last 2 games, expect a bounceback from Cincinnati.
Leaning more toward the Under consistently this season, Milwaukee is 24-24-1 O/U as a favorite. Back OVER 8.5 (-120).
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