The Cincinnati Reds (32-31) and Milwaukee Brewers (38-27) play the first of a three-game set at American Family Field Monday with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 over 17 IP through 3 starts.
Gutierrez will face the Brewers for the second consecutive start. He allowed just two runs and six hits with three walks and seven strikeouts across seven innings in a victory Wednesday at Great American Ball Park for his second consecutive win.
LHP Eric Lauer is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 28 IP through 4 starts and 3 relief appearances.
Lauer made a relief appearance Wednesday at GBAP, opposite Gutierrez and the Reds last time out, allowing two runs, two hits and four walks in a wild 80-pitch relief appearance across four innings. He hasn’t won since his first outing April 29 against the Dodgers.
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Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 9 (Over -105 | Under -115)
Prediction
Reds 6, Brewers 4
Money line (ML)
The REDS (+125) are a value play behind Gutierrez, who was impressive in his most-recent win over the Brewers (-155). I just don’t trust the southpaw Lauer, either, as he hasn’t won since late April. Until he starts going longer into games and ticking off quality starts, pick against him when he is on the bump.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
If you’re not feeling the REDS +1.5 (-155) straight up, they’re a decent value on the run line as they’re not obscenely overpriced catching a run-and-a-half.
The Reds have covered the run line in each of Gutierrez’s past two starts including as underdogs June 3 in St. Louis.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 9 (-105) is the lean here, although only as a small-unit wager. The Over has cashed in two of Lauer’s past three starts, and the Over is 4-0 in Cincinnati’s past four road outings against a left-handed starting pitcher. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s past four tries vs. RHP.
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