The Cincinnati Reds (3-16) meet the Colorado Rockies (10-9) Friday for the first of their 3-game set at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincy hasn’t won a series this season, going 0-5-1 so far. It enters on a 3-game slide after getting swept at home by the San Diego Padres.
Colorado returns home after a 2-5 road swing. The Rockies took 2 of 3 at the Detroit Tigers last weekend, but were swept in a 4-game set at the Philadelphia Phillies.
Reds at Rockies projected starters
RHP Hunter Greene vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela
Greene (1-2, 5.27 ERA) is making his fourth career MLB start. He went 3 1/3 IP in his last outing, a 4-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in his home debut where he allowed 3 ER on 4 H and 4 BB with 3 K.
- Won MLB debut at Atlanta Braves April 10, yielding 3 ER on 4 H and 2 BB with 7 K in 5 innings.
Senzatela (1-1, 4.73 ERA) lost at the Detroit Tigers 13-0 Saturday, surrendering 5 ER on 10 H with 0 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. the Reds: 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 1 BB and 7 K over 2 starts.
- vs. the Reds on the current roster: 4.75 FIP with a .338 expected batting average (xBA), .385 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .489 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 11.6 K% and 88.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 69 plate appearances.
Reds at Rockies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:51 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rockies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-205) | Rockies -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Reds at Rockies picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 7, Rockies 4
Money line
TAKE the REDS (+100).
This feels like a “trap line” with the Rockies (-120) having the best home winning percentage as home favorites (28-9) since the beginning of last season.
The Reds are the worst team in the MLB through April, but one of their few bright spots is the upside of Friday’s starter. Cincy drafted Greene No. 2 overall in the 2017 MLB Draft and his stuff is nasty.
Greene’s 4-seam fastball is in the 100th percentile of velocity and 90th percentile of spin and his whiff rate is in the 86th percentile, according to Statcast. His basic numbers don’t look good, but his first 3 starts were against a few of baseball’s best lineups (Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and Cardinals).
On the other hand, Statcast grades Senzatela in the fifth percentile or worse in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, expected ERA, K% and in the 20th percentile of EV.
Conventional wisdom would say to fade a rookie’s first start in the Coors Field launching pad and the oddsmakers are offering a cheap price for the Rockies. Hence the “trap line.”
BET 1 UNIT ON REDS (+100).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS since Cincy’s ML feels like a sharp, contrarian play, but it could certainly blow up in my face. Also, Cincinnati +1.5 (-205) is too expensive given its wide range of outcomes in this game. The Reds and their rookie starter could certainly get trounced in Coors Field Friday.
Over/Under
PASS.
Senzatela is a “bottom-of-the-rotation” starter on a below-average rotation and Cincy’s lineup and bullpen is one of the worst in the MLB.
It feels like the Under 10.5 (-122) is the “sharp play” since it’s more expensive, but I cannot bet an Under at Coors Field with a rookie facing Senzatela.
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