The Chicago Cubs (23-22) meet the St. Louis Cardinals (26-19) Sunday in Busch Stadium for the rubber match of their three-game series at 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Zach Davies makes his 10th start for the Cubs. Davies is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.76 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 1 K in Chicago’s 6-3 win over the Washington Nationals Tuesday.
- Career vs. the Cardinals: 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.33 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 across 10 starts.
- Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 101 at-bats with a .376/.447/.634 slash line, 14/12 K/BB, 6 HR and 14 RBIs.
RHP Adam Wainwright gets his ninth start for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 2-4 with a 4.63 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Loss, 13-3, in 4 IP with 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 2 K at the San Diego Padres on May 15.
- Career vs. the Cubs: 17-13 with a 4.12 ERA (262 1/3 IP, 120 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 over 42 starts and nine bullpen outings.
- Vs. Cubs on the current roster: 241 at-bats with a .249/.306/.411 slash line, 51/18 K/BB, 9 HR and 34 RBIs.
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Cubs at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:00 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Cubs 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because I’m worried St. Louis’ bullpen is overworked and might not be able to hold onto a lead so I’m looking to play the Cardinals in the First 5 Innings. St. Louis used four relievers in its 2-1 win Saturday.
However, oddsmakers have noticed this plus the starting pitching edge the Cardinals have and priced them accordingly; St. Louis is laying -155 for the First 5 Innings.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the CARDINALS -0.5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Davies has gotten lit up by St. Louis throughout his career, and advanced metrics paint a pretty grim picture of Davies’ season thus far.
Davies’ advanced pitching numbers are even more dreadful than his basic ones. For instance, Davies has just a 9.5% strikeout rate, 8.36 FIP, .459 expected wOBA and .861 expected slugging percentage vs. St. Louis’ lineup.
Furthermore, Davies grades below the 50th percentile in all Statcast metrics including in the single-digit percentile for whiff rate, expected wOBA, K% and expected ERA.
And, again, because Chicago’s bullpen is better and fresher, we’re going to bet St. Louis’s sizable edge in the starting pitching department.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for 1 unit because more than 95% of the money is on the Over (according to Pregame.com), and it’s more profitable in sports gambling to fade than follow this lopsided of a market.
Also, it would appear as though the market is robotically betting Over with two mediocre starting pitchers at best.
However, these teams have a combined 6-10 O/U record when these starters are on the mound, and the Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight Cubs-Cardinals meetings.
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