The San Diego Padres (19-10) host the Chicago Cubs (9-18) Monday for the opener of a 3-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago has lost 8 of its last 9 games, including a recent 5-game slide at home. The Cubs were swept in 3 over the weekend by the Los Angeles Dodgers following a 2-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox.
San Diego is 7-3 in the last 10 games, recently taking 3 of a 4-game home series vs. the Miami Marlins Thursday through Sunday.
The Cubs were 5-1 vs. the Padres in last year’s season series, outscoring San Diego 31-17.
Cubs at Padres projected starters
RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore
Hendricks is 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over 30 1/3 IP in 6 starts.
- 2021 vs. Padres: One start, a 4-3 victory June 1 behind 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 5.79 FIP with a .266/.323/.466 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 15.1 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity in 53 plate appearances.
The rookie Gore is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.9 BB/8 and 9.4 K/9 in 21 IP over 4 starts.
- He had a no-decision in a 6-5 loss at the Cleveland Guardians Wednesday, working 5 2/3 IP, allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 3 BB with 2 K.
Cubs at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Cubs at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Cubs 3
Money line
LEAN PADRES (-175) only because this is a pricey line and I prefer San Diego’s first 5-inning run line at a cheaper payout considering the Padres have a decisive edge in the starting pitching matchup.
Gore entered 2022 as San Diego’s No. 1 pitching prospect and has been sensational thus far in his rookie season. Hendricks’ numbers have dipped year over year and 2021 was Hendricks’ worst season of his career.
Also, the Padres are 11-7 vs. right-handed starters, 13-4 vs. teams with a losing record and 8-1 vs. NL Central opponents.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET PADRES -0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RL (-108).
Hendricks pitches worse on the road for his career and currently grades in the 20th percentile or worse in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, K% and chase rate, according to Statcast.
However, San Diego’s bullpen is 27th in xFIP and 26th in home runs allowed per 9 innings over the past two weeks (per FanGraphs), so I don’t fully trust the Padres to cover the full-game RL.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (+100).
The total has been steamed from a 7-run opener up to the current number, Chicago is 12-7-2 O/U as an underdog and San Diego is 12-10 O/U as a favorite.
This is a lean because Petco Park is a pitch-friendly ballpark and the forecast calls for double-digit mph winds blowing in from right-center field.
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