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The Chicago Cubs (67-66) and Pittsburgh Pirates (62-70) meet for a Wednesday matinee as they close out a 3-game NL Central series. First pitch from PNC Park is slated for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 5-4
Chicago has taken the 1st 2 games of this series and is 5-1 over its last 6 games. The Cubs have scored 27 runs in the 2 wins at Pittsburgh; they have averaged a robust 9.83 runs per game since Aug. 22.
The Pirates are 1-3 over their last 4. In home games against Chicago, Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight and 4 of its last 5.
Cubs at Pirates projected starters
RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. RHP Paul Skenes
Hendricks (3-10, 6.33 ERA) makes his 19th start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 101 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 6-3 win at Miami Marlins Friday
- 2024 road stats: 2-5, 7.16 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 in 12 appearances (10 starts)
- 2024 vs. Pirates: 0-1, 7.45 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.76 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 9-14, 3.81 ERA (170 IP, 72 ER), 170 H, 42 BB, 126 K in 31 starts
Skenes (8-2, 2.16 ERA) makes his 18th start. The rookie owns a 0.94 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 104 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-0 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Thursday
- 2024 home stats: 5-1, 2.52 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Cubs: 1-0, 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 18 K in 2 starts in 2024
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cubs at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Pirates -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-155) | Pirates -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Pirates 4
Moneyline
Pittsburgh is 4-16 over its last 20 games.
Skenes puts the best foot forward for the Bucs, but Hendricks, who has been undone by a .425 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations, figures as more of a 4.25-ERA performer. And so he is likely being undervalued by bettors.
As a team, the Cubs have slightly underplayed their 4.41 RPG and 4.17 RPG allowed. Now fighting for an NL Wild Card slot, CHICAGO (+140) is the value side of this match-up.
Run line/Against the spread
Look to the ML for the best leverage here. AVOID.
Over/Under
The Over has cashed is 6 of Chicago’s last 7 games. And it is 9-2 across Pittsburgh’s 11 games at home.
On a near-90-degree afternoon at PNC and with some slight Skenes fade and recent play to the Chicago bats, peg a lean on the OVER 8 (-115).
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