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The Chicago Cubs (80-76) face the Philadelphia Phillies (92-64) in the Cubs’ final road series and the Phillies’ last homestand. First pitch Monday from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Cubs vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-1
The Cubs won 3 of 4 from the Washington Nationals. On Sunday Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga threw 7 innings (0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K) and the bullpen completed the 5-0 shutout. Chicago hit 3 HRs in the win.
The Phillies are playoff bound, but they lost 3 of their last 4 games to the New York Mets,including 2-1 on Sunday. RHP Zack Wheeler lowered his ERA to 2.56 (7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 k), but the offense left 8 men on base and couldn’t score after a 1st inning RBI single by 3B Alec Bohm.
Cubs at Phillies projected starters
RHP Nate Pearson vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Pearson (2-2, 4.71 ERA) makes his 1st start after 57 relief appearances. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 63 IP.
- 2024 road stats: 0-0, 5.20 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 26 appearances
- Six of the 12 HRs he’s allowed have come on the 1st pitch
- In his first 25 pitches he allows .838 OPS, then it drops to a .173 OPS later in the game.
Nola (12-8, 3.54 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 188 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 2-1 road loss to Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday.
- 2024 home stats: 6-4, 3.31 ERA (98 IP, 36 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 16 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cubs at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 3:58 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-125) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Cubs 1
Moneyline
After a loss, Philadelphia posts the highest win rate, tied with the Dodgers, at 61.9%. Also against the NL, the Phillies are a respectable 66-44 (60%). But at the current odds its best to PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Cubs have been good on the road against the spread. However, coming off a win they have the worst record in baseball at 32-47 (40.5%). Given the fact their season is over and they are starting a reliever, I don’t have much confidence in Chicago.
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+105).
Over/Under
The Cubs have a strong Under record at 42-34-2 (55.3%). And the Phillies lean Under as a home favorite going 39-29-3 (57.4%).
The Cubs pitchers may not help keep the score down, but Philadelphia’s pitching should do the trick. In their last homestand they kept their opponent’s offense below 3 runs in 3 of those 6 games.
LEAN UNDER 8 (-105).
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