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The Chicago Cubs (31-33) and Cincinnati Reds (31-33) play the 3rd game of a 4-game NL Central series Saturday. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cincinnati leads 4-1
The Cubs lost Friday’s game 3-2 and are 2-9 with a 4.85 ERA over their last 11 outings away from Wrigley Field.
The Reds have taken the 1st 2 games of this series and are 6-0 since June 2. Cincinnati is 9-3 with a plus-18 run differential over its last 12 games.
Cubs at Reds projected starters
RHP Ben Brown vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Brown (1-2, 3.33 ERA) is tabbed for his 8th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 51 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-2 home setback vs. Reds Sunday (1st career game vs. Cincinnati)
- Owns a 2.83 ERA as a starter
Abbott (4-5, 3.39 ERA) is tabbed for his 13th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 69 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 13-3 victory at Colorado Rockies Monday
- Career vs. Cubs: 0-0, 4.66 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 5 BB, 10 K in 2 starts
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Cubs at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-200) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 6, Reds 4
Moneyline
Cincinnati is 6-2 over the last 8 series meetings. The CUBS (+100) are 2-9 across their last 11 road games.
At 4.41 runs per game and 4.16 RPG allowed, Cincy figures to be a better-than-.500 club. The Reds have been a good betting proposition of late and will likely be a solid one in the immediate future. But the pitching match-up changes the equation for Saturday.
Abbott has been quite fortunate to pitch through the lessened traffic of a .246 batting average on balls in play, and per ESPN, current Chicago batters own an aggregate .775 OPS against him.
Aside from his Sunday clunker against the Reds (which figures to be recency bias overestimated by bettors), Brown has been sharp in this, his rookie campaign. The 24-year-old has fanned 34 batters in his last 23 2/3 IP, and the Reds own a low-contact .673 OPS against righties.
Consider a partial-unit play on CHICAGO (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: The ML option injects less juice and teases out more leverage.
Over/Under
Some overall team batting and pitching gravity pegs both clubs as being Over leans in general: The NL Central clubs figure to be higher-scoring teams with gettable pitching.
With some added fade of Abbott in particular and with the game being in hitter-friendly Great American with a daytime start, the OVER 9 (-110) has value.
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