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The Chicago Cubs (31-31) and Cincinnati Reds (29-33) meet Thursday as they swing into a 4-game NL Central series. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cincinnati leads 2-1
The Cubs are coming off back-to-back 7-6 triumphs over the Chicago White Sox and are 3-1 across their last 4 games after enduring a rough 1-8 stretch at the end of May.
The Reds are back at home after a 4-1 road trip which opened by taking 2 of 3 against these Cubs at Wrigley Field last weekend. Cincinnati is 8-3 with a plus-17 run differential over its last 11 games.
Cubs at Reds projected starters
RHP Javier Assad vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Assad (4-1, 2.27 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 63.1 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-4 loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Friday
- Career vs. Reds: 0-1, 2.30 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 29 H, 12 BB, 32 K in 6 games (4 starts)
- Has benefited from a .256 batting average on balls in play in inning lead-off situations and a .154 BABIP in high-leverage scenarios
Greene (3-2, 3.44 ERA) is making his 13th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 70.2 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 5 K in 5-4 loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Friday
- Career vs. Cubs: 3-1, 4.33 ERA (27 IP, 13 ER), 14 H, 12 BB, 35 K in 5 starts
- Makes this start on 4 days’ rest: has yielded just a .655 OPS on such rest over his career
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Cubs at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Cubs 4
Moneyline
The Cubs are 1-5 over their last 6 road games. The Reds are 4-2 across the last 6 series meetings.
Peg Cincinnati as having a bit of an unfortunate record with its 4.37 runs per game against 4.19 allowed. The Reds’ bullpen is in good shape after an off day, and Chicago’s relief corps is in fatigue territory. The back end of that Chicago pen has multiple bodies likely unavailable Thursday.
Chicago batters own a .614 OPS since May 13. Cincinnati has won 5 straight series openers and is a value in this spot. BACK THE REDS (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Some lean toward the home team here, but figure the return on the Reds minus a cushion being a tad light. PASS.
Over/Under
The last 8 Cubs games have cashed Over tickets 7 times. The total has gone Over in 12 of Cincinnati’s last 17 games against Chicago.
Both starters have expected-ERA figures that would indicate they are most likely overrated in their effect on tamping down scores. Mix in a breeze-blowing-out forecast in home-run favorable Great American Ball Park and a fatigued back end of the Chicago bullpen, and the OVER 9.5 (-105) is the play here.
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