Category: The All-22

2024 NFL Draft: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy scouting report

What attributes does Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy bring to the NFL? Here’s one thumbnail scouting report.

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With Super Bowl LVIII in the rearview, and the scouting combine less than two weeks away, it’s time to look at college prospects with a whole new eye. We will of course have more detailed scouting reports on these players as the process goes along, but here’s one thumbnail scouting report on Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

In his second season as the Wolverines’ starter, McCarthy was a big part of Michigan’s national championship journey. He completed 240 of 333 passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.6. As a deep passer, McCarthy completed 25 passes of 20 or more air yards on 46 attempts for 706 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 130.0. When pressured, McCarthy completed 52 of 82 passes for 780 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.8. As a runner, McCarthy gained 340 yards and scored three touchdowns on 39 carries.

McCarthy’s tape doesn’t really blow you away, but he does just about everything well enough, and consistently enough, where you can see the path to a starting quarterback in the NFL. Given his success under Jim Harbaugh, you know that he understands pro concepts to an elevated degree. If you’re looking for a second-round game executive (H/T to Nate Tice of The Athletic for that term; it’s a great way to describe a plus-level game manager) in the Kirk Cousins mold, this could be your guy.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Super Bowl LVIII recap edition

Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar review Super Bowl LVIII between the Chiefs and 49ers as only they can in this week’s “Xs and Os.”

Now that Super Bowl LVIII is in the books, and the Kansas City Chiefs have established themselves as the NFL’s nest dynasty with their 25-22 overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers, it’s time for Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, to review everything as only they can with copious tape study and advanced metrics.

Among the topics discussed in this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar”:

  • Steve Spagnuolo’s shocking man-blitz plan.
  • How Trent McDuffie made that deflection with 2:00 left in regulation.
  • Was Chris Jones robbed of a Super Bowl MVP award for the second time in four years?
  • Why Spags went so heavy with nickel, and Cover-0 stuff.
  • Why Brock Purdy wasn’t the reason the 49ers lost.
  • Was Dre Greenlaw’s injury a major factor in the game or not?
  • How were the Chiefs able to spot man coverage on Travis Kelce’s huge fourth-quarter catch?
  • How Patrick Mahomes showed his development as a quarterback at the most important points of his season…
  • …and why Mahomes’ biggest throw in the Super Bowl was the one he never should have attempted.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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You can listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

The Chiefs’ Super Bowl LVIII blitz plan was very risky, but perfectly done

The Chiefs’ blitz concepts against Brock Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII went completely against type — and worked more often than they didn’t.

Going into Super Bowl LVIII, the Kansas City Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knew one thing about San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy: Throughout the 2023 NFL season, Purdy had ripped opposing defenses to shreds when they blitzed him. Purdy had 101 completions in 150 attempts for 1,534 yards, 701 air yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.6. The Chiefs had sent five or more pass-rushers on 208 opponent attempts, fourth-most in the NFL. And on those 208 attempts, opposing quarterbacks completed 112 passes for 1,122 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 76.2.

Perhaps more interestingly, the Chiefs blitzed just 81 times on opponent passing attempts pre-Super Bowl with man coverage behind it, allowing 33 completions for 360 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 56.6. But against five or more pass-rushers with man coverage, Purdy had been even better, completing 40 of 64 for 806 yards, 404 air yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 137.5.

So, this was best on best coming into the Super Bowl, which makes you think that Spagnuolo might not send a ton of man blitzes in the biggest game of the season.

Au contraire, mon frere.

Against the Chiefs’ man blitzes, Purdy completed 11 of 21 passes for 149 yards, his one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 91.2. Not bad, but not the Purdy we’ve seen against these concepts through the season.

Why did this work for the Chiefs? They were brilliant when it came to presenting Purdy with pressure and coverage concepts that didn’t really make sense, but worked even when the 49ers had answers.

The Chiefs ran a zero blitz with 7:04 left in the second quarter, down 3-0. The 49ers actually blocked the six-man pressure up very well with Willie Gay as the fifth rusher from the  left defensive edge, and Nick Bolton on the right side as the sixth rusher. It was six-on-six with George Kittle in the formation because Christian McCaffrey released from the backfield on play action into a choice route, while L’Jarius Sneed had Jauan Jennings to the right offensive side on the dig route, and Trent McDuffie had Deebo Samuel up the numbers on the other side.

Purdy had time to scan those possibilities, but both receivers were locked down. Purdy had two practical choices – hit McCaffrey on the choice route, or hit Brandon Aiyuk on the flat route to the left side out of motion, which probably would have gone for about the same result – six yards – because Chamarri Conner was manned up on Aiyuk, and Aiyuk didn’t look like he would have gotten very far after the catch. This was a fascinating example to me of how much Spags trusts his defensive backs to shut things down in coverage concepts that would normally favor the offense – and would normally favor the offense to an extreme degree if the quarterback is left clean.

Also important was that when the Chiefs sent those man blitzes, most of the 49ers’ yards came after the catch — there weren’t a lot of explosive opportunities downfield, outside of this 18-yard first quarter completion to receiver Chris Conley, when Conley beat cornerback Jaylen Watson on an out-cut.

“Man, it was just tough,” Purdy said postgame of the Chiefs’ defense. “I feel like first and second down was tough. We’d always – I feel like it was like third and long. I have to be better on first and second down, taking what they have given me, and I feel like they were just sticky across the board when they played man coverage and stuff so that was another challenge. So, I just feel like on third down, I have to execute better. For our defense to give us that many stops like they did, and then for us to go three now and not do anything with those opportunities, that’s what hurts me.”

It hurt the 49ers throughout the game, and it was one of the most unexpected parts of Super Bowl LVIII.

How the Chiefs have solved their receiver drop problems at the perfect time

The Chiefs appear to have solved their formerly massive receiver drop issues, which bodes well for Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII.

LAS VEGAS — Several members of the Kansas City Chiefs’ organization have talked this week about how the team’s 20-17 Week 16 Christmas Day loss to the Las Vegas Raiders as a turning point for the rest of the season. It was a wake-up call for a lot of people, not least a receiver group that had let Patrick Mahomes down more than once with iffy routes and infuriating dropped passes.

In that game, Mahomes couldn’t even trust Travis Kelce, his best buddy, who had two killer drops. Both were on simple short passes, and while both came on first down so they didn’t kill any drives per se, it would have been better if Kelce had caught them.

There was this drop with 11:21 left in the first quarter on an easy flat route…

…and this one with 10:38 left in the game, which probably prevented a touchdown.

The Chiefs were down 20-7 at the time, and were unable to get any points on the drive when Mahomes failed to connect with receiver Rashee Rice from the Las Vegas seven-yard line. There, cornerback Amik Robertson was all over Rice, but it could be argued that the rookie still could have taken the ball in.

This may have been the nadir of the Chiefs’ offense through the season, and those drops personified a serious problem that had reared its ugly head over and over. Per Fantasy Points Data, Mahomes had lost a league-high 386 passing yards to receiver drops in the regular season.

However, through the Chiefs’ three playoff games, the Chiefs have “robbed” Mahomes of just 40 passing yards on drops — which means that things have changed in the right way at the right time.

What’s changed?

“If you watch the receivers every single day, they’re catching on the side when the defense is up, they’re catching after practice, they’re catching before practice,” Mahomes said this week. “I remember I was walking to lunch one day and Skyy [Moore] was out there catching by himself. Those guys have that mindset that they’re going to continue to get better. That’s been throughout the whole entire team. We’re not wasting any moments in practice, guys are working on the side, we’re trying to get better, and we’re not going to let that slide this week either, we’re going to try to do the same thing going into the Super Bowl.”

Well, it’s trending up when the Chiefs need it the most.

Five things the San Francisco 49ers must do to win Super Bowl LVIII

If the San Francisco 49ers are to win Super Bowl LVIII, they might want to pay attention to these five advanced scouting points.

Every Super Bowl comes down to a few big plays, and a few key matchups. You never know what it’s going to be, but when the game is over, and it’s time for coaches and players to review what happened and why, everyone will go back to their advanced scouting reports — how they aligned their guys and how those guys played from a schematic perspective — and try to discern what went right and what went wrong.

Not that we’re professional advanced scouts at Touchdown Wire, but here are five things the San Francisco 49ers should probably pay close attention to when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs today in Super Bowl LVIII.

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Five things the Kansas City Chiefs must do to win Super Bowl LVIII

If the Kansas City Chiefs are to win Super Bowl LVIII, they might want to pay attention to these five advanced scouting points.

Every Super Bowl comes down to a few big plays, and a few key matchups. You never know what it’s going to be, but when the game is over, and it’s time for coaches and players to review what happened and why, everyone will go back to their advanced scouting reports — how they aligned their guys and how those guys played from a schematic perspective — and try to discern what went right and what went wrong.

Not that we’re professional advanced scouts at Touchdown Wire, but here are five things the Kansas City Chiefs should probably pay close attention to when they take on the San Francisco 49ers today in Super Bowl LVIII.

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Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the real star of Super Bowl LVIII

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a schematic wizard, but his real superpower is getting his players to buy in without fail.

It was February 3, 2008. Super Bowl XLII, in which the New England Patriots were supposed to complete the second undefeated season in pro football history. Instead, the underdog New York Giants put Tom Brady in a special section of hell with pass-rush concepts that had their defensive linemen moving around gap to gap, and often standing up in NASCAR fronts for which the Patriots seemed to have no answers. Brady was sacked five times, and hit nine more times, completing 29 of 48 passes for 266 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 82.5 in a 17-14 Giants win.

Not what anybody expected from a quarterback — and an offense — that had set the NFL ablaze all season long, but Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had the perfect plan for Brady and the Patriots, and that bore out. Spagnuolo threw the entire buffet at Brady with advanced blitzes, moving linemen, and NASCAR fronts in which as many as all four defensive linemen were standing up pre-snap.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=My0ahKLvxzs

“I remember that game, and watching what they were doing, and I’ve watched it again since,” Super Bowl XLII Most Valuable Player Eli Manning told me on Friday. “He had Antonio Pierce, middle linebacker, and obviously now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. They were flip-flopping blitzes, and I’d never seen that before, where they had a WILL [linebacker]-free safety blitz, and they’d see Brady read it and change protections to pick up that blitz, and they would flip-flop  and roll it to bring a SAM [linebacker] and strong safety. You had free guys hitting Brady, so just mixing in and having that capability and communication and the trust in the defense to do that. To execute it, that’s the first time I’d ever seen that.

“I have great respect for Coach Spagnuolo and all he’s done in his career, his opportunity to win his fourth Super Bowl is impressive, and he always has the threat of blitz. That’s what he brings — exotic blitzes and exotic coverages. It’s a lot of work to get ready to play one of his defenses.”

Fast-forward 15 years, and “Coach Spags” is still doing it his way — perhaps at a higher level than ever before, and he’s now winning Super Bowls with the Kansas City Chiefs. Moreover, he’s doing it now with the NFL’s youngest defense. There are a lot of deep football reasons why the Chiefs’ defense has carried the team to Super Bowl LVIII as the offense has been up and down (to say the least), but there are also personal dynamics between Spagnuolo and his players that mean a lot.

Let’s dive into why Steve Spagnuolo is the real star of Super Bowl LVIII.

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Why 13 (personnel) has become the magic number for the Chiefs’ offense

The Kansas City Chiefs are better in 13 personnel than any other NFL team, and that could be big trouble for the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

When you think of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, a “spread-’em-out” ideology may come to mind with multiple receivers, and perhaps Travis Kelce as the only tight end on the field. But that’s not what this offense was in 2022 under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and that’s not what this offense was in 2023, or is in 2024, under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.

Quite the opposite, and it’s not been gradual, the Chiefs are now the kings of three-tight end sets. 13 personnel, with one back, three tight ends, and one receiver, has become the team’s primary formational constraint. This is clearly something that comes from on high, i.e., Andy Reid.

In the 2022 season, Kansas City led the league in passing out of 13 personnel, and they were ridiculously good at it. Patrick Mahomes had 74 dropbacks out of 13, completing 49 of 64 passes for 716 yards, 326 yards after the catch, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 152.1, which was just about dead solid perfect. Mahomes’ EPA throwing out of 13 was 31.95, which was absolutely preposterous — Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks ranked second at 12.36,

This season, Mahomes has also led the NFL in 13 personnel throws, though the results haven’t been quite as productive, which is a reflection of the entire Chiefs’ passing game. Mahomes has had 50 dropbacks out of 13, completing 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards, 188 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 87.3, and an EPA of 1.81.

Where the Chiefs have upped their 13 personnel production this season is in the run game, and especially with second-year back Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco leads the NFL in 13 personnel carries with 53, gaining 226 yards, 140 yards after contact, and scoring one touchdown. Mahomes has also run eight times for 52 yards this season out of 13 personnel, so that’s something the San Francisco 49ers will want to consider in Super Bowl LVIII.

On Wednesday, I talked with Matt Nagy about the three-tight end sets, and why the Chiefs are the runaway leaders with all that. As Nagy said, the fact that they do it so much more than any other NFL teams is its own inherent advantage.

“Number one, we feel that we have a good set of tight ends who can do different things. When you’re in 13 personnel, are they receiving tight ends, or are they blocking tight ends, or are they both? We feel like we have a good mix there. So, it starts with personnel.

“The second part is, because there aren’t a lot of teams that do 13 personnel, a lot of defensive coordinators don’t have a lot of calls for 13 personnel. So, they’ve got kind of a limited menu  So now, you can do some different things. If a team shows a multitude of defenses against 13, we take a look at that and decide whether we want to go with it or not. We’ve been that way for a long time.”

Well, here’s the thing. The 49ers have faced three tight ends on just nine of their opponents’ passing attempts, with five catches allowed for 81 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 122.9.

The touchdown was a 31-yarder against the Seahawks in Week 14. The Seahawks motioned tight end Will Dissly across from left to right out of a wing alignment, and this was an interesting example of another way teams can use four-strong – to gain a favorable matchup for the iso receiver on the other side. With Dissly, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and running back Kenneth Walker to the right, and with Fant and Parkinson then running intermediate crossers back over, DK Metcalf had an open one-on-one with cornerback Ambry Thomas as the backside iso. The 49ers could definitely see something like that on Sunday – also, one of the ways the Chiefs stress defenses with four-strong formations is to wind at least one of their tight ends back to the other side.

In the run game, the 49ers have faced rushing attempts out of 13 personnel just 13 times for 50 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was a 16-yard Kareem Hunt run against the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. Cleveland motioned tight end Jordan Akins across from right to left, keeping David Njoku and Harrison Bryant on the right side. Receivers Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell were the ones who helped crack that run open for a 16-yard touchdown.

Based on what Nagy said regarding what defenses do (or do not do) against the Chiefs’ 13 personnel packages in the pass and run games, we should probably expect to see Kansas City to turn it all the way up to 13 in the Super Bowl.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys got into why the Chiefs’ 13 personnel stuff is so effective, and what the 49ers might want to try to work against it.

You can watch the “Xs and Os” Super Bowl Preview episode here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

The Secret Superstars of Super Bowl LVIII

From Jauan Jennings to L’Jarius Sneed, here are 10 underrated players for the 49ers and Chiefs who could make all the difference in Super Bowl LVIII.

For every Super Bowl star you’d expect, there’s a player who comes out of nowhere in a relative sense to take over the biggest game of his life. That was just as true for Green Bay Packers receiver Max McGee in Super Bowl I as it was for Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco in Super Bowl LVII.

For the upcoming matchup between the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, we’d like to present 10 players — five from each team — whose deeds on the field have gone relatively unnoticed, but every one of them could be the one to take his team’s fortunes over the top.

Here are the Secret Superstars of Super Bowl LVIII.

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The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Previewing Super Bowl LVIII

It’s time for Super Bowl LVIII, which means that it’s time for Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar to dive into the Chiefs-49ers matchups with tape and advanced metrics.

It’s nearly time for the biggest game of the NFL season, which means it’s time for our guys Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, to do a very deep dive on Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, using all kinds of tape study and advanced metrics.

Here, the guys cover these topics, as well as many others:

  • Why run defense for each team could be the key to the entire game, and why Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco might unlock it all for Kansas City.
  • How Christian McCaffrey became the NFL’s best and most prolific zone runner.
  • How Steve Spagnuolo might blitz Brock Purdy, who has been amazing against the blitz all season.
  • Why Patrick Mahomes, who in the past has been similarly “unblitzable” in recent seasons, hasn’t been that in 2023.
  • Steve Wilks’ 49ers defense is far more multiple than some people think — especially in coverage — and why that could be a problem for Mr. Mahomes.
  • The Chiefs’ four-strong formations and use of 13 personnel, and how those two things have come to define Andy Reid’s offense to a great degree.
  • Why linebackers for both teams will be so important.
  • The Secret Superstars of Super Bowl LVIII.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.