Could Saints call Browns about a WR trade?

With Michael Thomas set to miss a few months, could the Saints call the Browns about a receiver trade?

The Cleveland Browns are preparing to open their training camp with the hope that they can stay healthy and compete for a Super Bowl in 2021. The New Orleans Saints haven’t reported to camp yet either but already got some bad news that star receiver Michael Thomas will likely miss games this year.

Thomas reportedly underwent surgery in June on his ankle that caused him problems much of last season. According to reports, Thomas is likely to miss four months before being able to return to football activities which could lead him to miss around half of the season.

With the Saints also hoping to vie for a Super Bowl appearance this year, their first without Drew Brees, could they make a call to the Browns for receiver help?

The Browns are deep at a lot of positions going into 2021. While teams can never prepare for a major injury, receiver is one position where the Browns could feel good about their depth enough to make a deal.

At the top of the depth chart are the two biggest names: Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. A return to Louisiana for either of the LSU stars would make headlines but seems highly unlikely. Unless the Saints trade one of their highly paid players to the Browns, assuming the Browns would want them, they are too close to the cap to make a high-priced receiver trade work.

Of the two, Landry costs about $2.5 less against the cap than Beckham but would still be a bit of a tight squeeze for New Orleans.

Anthony Schwartz is also unlikely to be the receiver discussed between the two teams. The Saints are likely looking for a player who can help right away, rookies rarely do so, and the Browns would need to be blown away to deal their third-round pick from this year before seeing him on the field.

After those three, the Browns do have some interesting players that New Orleans could be interested in. Rashard Higgins is a steady veteran on a one-year contract. While his numbers have never been amazing, he is a very reliable player. The Browns would drive a hard bargain for “Hollywood” but, if the Saints are desperate enough, move Higgins for a big enough return.

Khadarel Hodge has never had the kind of numbers Saints fans might hope for in seeking a Thomas replacement, even for the short term, but could fit. Hodge has size and speed, is playing on his restricted tender contract and could be had for a much lower rate than any of the others noted.

Donovan Peoples-Jones is one of the reasons Hodge and Higgins could be available but he could also draw attention from New Orleans. He fell in the NFL draft due to poor quarterback play around him but showed flashes as a rookie. Perhaps the Saints see upside in Peoples-Jones while the Browns are willing to risk trading him only for a high enough price.

Cleveland, like most teams, also has a few other receivers, like Jojo Natson, Ryan Switzer and Derrick Willies, but none that will likely draw a call from the Saints.

In the end, the Browns would only deal one of their receivers if they believed it helped them win a Super Bowl in the next few seasons. If the Saints traded a day two draft pick or a player that could step in and help right away, all but Beckham Jr. might be available. New Orleans, with salary cap issues the past few years, may rather trade a lower-tier pick or player to grab a cheaper receiver who can help bide time for Thomas’s recovery.

The path of the past 10 Super Bowl champions prior to their title

What did the years before their Super Bowl win look like for the last 10 champs?

It is often interesting to look at how history can help inform the present and future. This is true in sports and in life. While history doesn’t always repeat itself, often it is learning from the past that helps prevent mistakes or prepare for success.

In a lot of ways, that is the definition of analytics.

With the Cleveland Browns setting their sights on a Super Bowl appearance and victory, today we look back at the last ten Super Bowl champions at what their path was like that led them to their title. In particular, we will take a look at their record in the three previous seasons, was there any coaching changes during that time and who were their quarterbacks in those seasons.

Did most teams slowly climb up the standings? Was continuity at head coach and quarterback needed?

The Best of The AFC: Top 5 Power Rankings

Who are the top five in the AFC? Where do the Browns rank in that group? @WardOnSports gives you his AFC Top 5 Power Rankings.

As we are just a couple of weeks away from the start of training camps around the league, it is a good time to take stock of the teams competing in the AFC with the Cleveland Browns.

While fans are used to hoping for the Browns to work their way up different power rankings, generally starting near the bottom, the 2021 season is different. Instead, the Browns come in with real expectations, not just hype, based on their performance last year and the moves made in the offseason.

For the Browns to make it to their goal, the Super Bowl, they must make it through the ultra-tough AFC. Our Brad Ward takes you through his top five in the AFC with his power rankings.

Browns camp battle preview: Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. Anthony Schwartz

Browns camp battle preview: Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. Anthony Schwartz for the “speed” WR role

It might not get the sizzling attention of a battle for a starting spot, but the Cleveland Browns appear to have quite a fight brewing for the reserve “speed” wide receiver spot. Second-year wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones and third-round rookie Anthony Schwartz figure to square off for the position in Browns training camp and preseason.

Both are long-striding, outside-the-numbers vertical threats as receivers. Schwartz wins the footrace battle, but that’s not because Peoples-Jones and his 4.47 40-yard dash is slow; the rookie is a world-class sprinter who once held the world record in his age group.

Quick note: We’re not ignoring KhaDarel Hodge here. Hodge is a very different type of receiver and invaluable on special teams. That’s part of why Peoples-Jones and Schwartz are fighting for the same roster spot.

In his rookie campaign, Peoples-Jones proved he had some viable NFL talent. He caught 14 passes (20 targets) for 314 yards and two touchdowns. That’s decent production from a limited role and playing just 25 percent of offensive snaps. He’s a good leaper and strong at the catch point, and his blocking proved acceptable enough on the outside.

Schwartz was better in college at gaining quick separation against man coverage than Peoples-Jones was during his Michigan tenure. He’s capable of blowing the top off the defense on any play. But in terms of route running, blocking and precision, he’s well behind his competitor. The blazing speed is a valuable trump card in Schwartz’s favor, however.

The decision could come down to special teams. While Demetric Felton projects as the primary return specialist, both Peoples-Jones and Schwartz figure to get opportunities in camp as well. “DPJ” was moderately effective as a punt returner in 2020 (77 yards on 18 returns) but proved pretty easy to tackle as well. His superior strength and physicality offer more potential in coverage units.

Browns project to have the best pass protection in the NFL

The Cleveland Browns project to have the best pass protection from the offensive line in the NFL

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One of the reasons to be bullish on the Cleveland Browns offense in 2021 is the strength of the guys up front. The Browns have heavily invested in the offensive line, and it’s paid off handsomely. One projection metric expects that to continue.

ESPN, in conjunction with Next Gen Stats, projected the pass protection win rate for all 32 NFL offensive lines. Line coach Bill Callahan’s unit in Cleveland topped the projections for 2021. The Browns are expected to win at a 65% rate, best in the league.

From ESPN analytics expect Seth Walder,

“From Myles Garrett to Odell Beckham Jr. to Denzel Ward to Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s roster is loaded. And that absolutely extends to the offensive line, which should give Baker Mayfield every opportunity to execute an efficient passing game. The talent is there, and so is the continuity: This group started a collective 73 games out of a possible 80 for Cleveland last season.”

The process ESPN used to create the projections is a little disingenuous. It automatically discredits players with less than two years of experience and also linemen who didn’t play a lot in 2020 due to injury or opting out for COVID purposes.

To achieve this we used a regression model that considers every projected starter’s individual pass block win rate over the past two seasons. Players who did not play in either or both seasons (including rookies) were assigned a below-average PBWR for their position, and anyone who failed to meet the qualifying threshold had their win rate regressed toward that below-average target.

However, those play into the hands of the Browns, who have four starters with long track records of strong play in the starting lineup. This projection metric helps bump up Jedrick Wills, who proved to be a pass-blocking specialist in his rookie season at left tackle, too.

Quality Depth, especially experience, key for Browns in 2021

The Browns’ goal is 21 games (or 20 plus a bye) in 2021. That could lead to tough decisions with young, developmental guys as the team values quality, veteran depth instead.

The Cleveland Browns plan to have a special season in 2021 with Super Bowl aspirations.

Those aspirations are built on a very good 2020 season, the development of Baker Mayfield, the culture created by Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry and the influx of talent this offseason. Those aspirations are both high and realistic at the same time.

For the first time in 2021, the NFL schedule also includes a 17 game regular season. Unless the Browns are able to get the coveted bye week in the playoffs, a possibility but tough to assume with only one bye per conference, they will need to play 21 games, plus three preseason games, to achieve their goal.

For most of the Browns players, the 18 games played in 2020 was the longest season of football they have ever played in their life. Adding three more games of hitting, blocking, running, twisting, tackling, etc is a lot more wear on a body.

Even more so is this true for rookies or first-year players whose college careers included between 10 and 14 games, at most. Due to injuries and COVID-19 related limitations, Greg Newsome II has never played in more than 8 games in a season. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah played in 13 games, in 2019, but never more than that.

The NBA playoffs are a great example of the importance of depth as a season wears on. Many of the top stars missed playoff games or were significantly limited after their long season.

The NFL, a much more physical game, adding a 17th game may add to their overall revenue and give fans more games to consume but, like the NBA, it could water down the product due to injuries.

For the Browns, last year’s 18 games was a great starting point of playoff experience for many of their young players. With the additional regular-season game and their goal of making it two games farther in the playoffs, having a good amount of depth across the roster will be vital.

With different goals in mind than they have had in the past and the need for as much quality depth as possible, the Browns may choose to keep a couple of young veterans over developmental prospects in 2021 and beyond. This could make it difficult for players like Demetric Felton and Richard LeCounte III to make the roster.

In 2021, the magic number for the Browns is 21 games and they are going to need all the quality depth they can find to make it through such a long season.

Could Odell Beckham Jr. win the Comeback Player of the Year award?

While unlikely given the competition, could Odell Beckham Jr. win the Comeback Player of the Year award?

The Cleveland Browns have had an exciting offseason after a very exciting 2020 season that ended with a trip to the playoffs. All of the new additions to the defense, both in free agency and the NFL draft, has fans bursting at the seams with joy after the offense had to carry a heavy load last year.

It isn’t just the new additions that has Browns fans, and the national media, excited about the team. The Browns also are expecting a number of players back from injury and after opting out of 2020 due to COVID-19.

Drew Forbes and Andrew Billings are the biggest names coming back from an opt-out season. Forbes is expected to compete for a backup role on the offensive line which has surprising depth. Billings, on the other hand, is expected to help fill the holes left by the departures of Larry Ogunjobi (free agent, signed with the Bengals) and Sheldon Richardson (cut, still unsigned) in the middle of the defensive line.

The big-name coming back from injury is Odell Beckham Jr. While Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams should be helpful parts of the defense, the return of Beckham is expected to take a good offense to new heights. The Browns offense was struggling early in the season due to a new system and limited offseason and practices in season. It took off despite Beckham going down with an ACL tear in Week 7 against Cincinnati.

Beckham is among those listed as candidates for the Comeback Player of the Year award by Draft Kings. While the Browns wide receiver isn’t high on the list, if the Browns have the kind of season most are expecting he could take home the award.

Currently, Dak Prescott is the odds-on favorite for the award followed by Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, Christian McCaffrey, and Nick Bosa. Beckham’s odds currently sit +2500 far below Prescott’s +175.

Given a couple of big-name quarterbacks also coming back from injury and the number of storylines that would surround a successful Browns season, it will take a Herculean effort by Beckham to take home the award. For now, it is just exciting to know Baker Mayfield and company will have a big weapon back to work with.

Browns have the 9th-hardest schedule in 2021 but easiest in AFC North

Strength of schedule is based on combined records in 2020 of the 2021 opponents

It won’t be an easy road back to the postseason for the Cleveland Browns in 2021. Cleveland’s updated schedule of opponents ranks among the 10 hardest in the league for the upcoming season.

The Browns opponents on the 2021 schedule combined to go 140-130-2 in 2020. That includes the 17th game on the schedule, a date with the Arizona Cardinals that was officially added last week.

Browns 2021 opponents are now established

The good news? Cleveland’s opponents have the weakest 2020 record of any of the four teams in the AFC North. Pittsburgh and Baltimore own the two toughest slates, and the Bengals are tied for sixth. The Browns finishing 11-5 but in third place in the division jacks up their strengths of schedule; no other third-place team finished with more than eight wins last season.

NFL expected to add 17th regular season game to the schedule this week

The Browns would add the Arizona Cardinals in 2021 if the proposal passes

When the NFL owners meet this week and vote on different rule changes and structures, one of the prominent ones is the expansion to a 17-game regular season schedule. And it appears the added game is all but a foregone conclusion.

Several outlets and national insiders, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter, have indicated the NFL will indeed add the 17th game to the schedule for 2021. It’s been a topic of discussion for several months. In fact, the NFL already revealed the format for the matchup of the 17th game. Back in December, the proposed format leaked out and dictated that the Browns would host the Arizona Cardinals in the 17th game.

The owners will vote during this week’s annual meeting. Expect a definite answer by the end of the week.

Browns salary cap update after the first day of free agency

The Browns

If GM Andrew Berry and the Cleveland Browns want to spend some money on free agents, they still have the ability to make things happen. The team sits comfortably with over $18 million in cap room after the first day of the NFL’s free agency legal tampering period.

While deals are not finalized until Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET, the Browns agreed-upon deal with safety John Johnson for four years and $33.75 million is factored into the cap equation. Per Over The Cap, that leaves the Browns with $18,251,244 as of Tuesday morning. At Spotrac, the estimated figure is slightly higher at $18,540,031.

The Browns rank 14th in available cap funds among the 32 NFL teams with either figure.

Cleveland still has the potential to offer contract extensions to some notable players, including QB Baker Mayfield. They can also restructure some veteran contracts, like DL Sheldon Richardson or WR Jarvis Landry, if they need additional funds.

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