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Lions vs. Broncos: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Broncos: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 15 matchup in Ford Field

This week’s Detroit Lions game accelerates the timeline. A Saturday night game against the Denver Broncos means today’s morning pot of coffee gets nursed a lot longer. It’s a short sip kind of day in getting ready for the Week 15 prime-time matchup — one that could clinch a postseason berth for the Lions.

Here’s what is going through my mind about the game as we gear up for the final Lions home game before the calendar flips to the new year.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • I sense a return to an offensive game script and plan that better plays to the Lions’ strengths. Namely, running the ball and Jared Goff operating more play-action passes with better route spacing concepts. The Lions offense, and coordinator Ben Johnson, have veered away from those fundamentals lately and it’s not working. Johnson, Goff and Dan Campbell are too good, too smart, to keep failing by emphasizing things they don’t do so well. A healthy (fingers crossed!) offensive line will help, too.
  • It’s a great matchup for the Lions to get back to those offensive basics. The Broncos have the league’s worst run defense in yards per carry and also yards per carry on 1st downs. The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is a very real problem for Denver’s defense. So too is Lions rookie Sam LaPorta at tight end.So too is Lions rookie Sam LaPorta at tight end.
  • The Broncos are stylistically similar to the Bears, the Lions’ last opponent. It won’t take a radical crash course for Campbell and his coordinators to shift game plans on a short week. Meanwhile, Denver travels to Detroit having played the Chargers in a late-afternoon game last Sunday. L.A. runs a very different style of defense and also offers a contrasting passing game style and type of receiver than what the Broncos will see in Detroit.

What worries me about the Broncos

  • The matchup of the Lions secondary against Russell Wilson and the Denver passing game. The Lions CBs have played poorly in outside coverage for a few weeks now, and the safety play in the downfield passing game has been even worse. Wilson’s passing largely emphasizes either short throws or long throws. He averages less air yards per attempt than Goff and isn’t as accurate throwing down the field as his Lions counterpart, but Wilson’s willingness to let it fly and try for the big play is an issue. They’re a big-play team more than a long-drive, wear-you-down kind of offense. These Lions have had problems with offenses like that (Seattle, Baltimore, Green Bay).
  • Denver’s defense blitzes over 31 percent of the time, seventh-most in the league. And they’re not particularly good at it; their QB pressure rate of 5.2 percent (from Pro Football Reference) is 29th. By contrast, Detroit’s defense ranks 3rd in QB pressure percentage. However, Goff has really struggled with decision-making and ball security when pressured lately. Since the bye in Week 9, Goff has the league’s worst QBR when under pressure. Factor in Denver’s ability to create takeaways (12 in their last five games) and this could be a real issue.
  • I always worry about a kohai challenging a senpai, and that’s what Campbell is facing by coaching against his mentor, Sean Payton. It’s an abstract state of discomfort for me that could very well be nothing. But it might be something, something that could impact even a good coach like Campbell.

Final score prediction

I’m leaning on the Lions getting back to what was working so well earlier in the season. Those things all should translate very effectively against a tough but vulnerable Broncos team. If the coverage remains broken and the Jared Goff/Ben Johnson combination has another bad day, it’s likely to be ugly for the home team. I think the Lions remember who they are in this one and come away with a much-needed win. Lions 31, Broncos 20.

Behind Enemy Lines: Breaking down the matchup in Chicago with Bears Wire

With questions on Justin Fields, the Bears defense, the potential of Jaylon Johnson to join the Lions this offseason and more.

It’s Bears week in Detroit. The Lions are heading to Chicago to face the rival Bears on Sunday in an NFC North matchup that could push the Lions to the brink of clinching their first-ever division title.

The two teams met back in Week 11 in Ford Field. Fans might recall the Lions scoring 17 points in the final 2:59 to stun the Bears with a 31-26 comeback victory.

What’s going on with the Bears since? To help find out more, I asked a few questions with Alyssa Barbieri of Bears Wire. She graciously answered questions on Justin Fields, the Bears defense, the potential of Jaylon Johnson to join the Lions this offseason and more.

History tells us Jared Goff could have a big day vs. the Saints

Jared Goff historically has played very well against the Saints defense but this current New Orleans team isn’t going to roll over for him.

Back in 2016, Jared Goff had just entered the NFL as the top overall pick of the NFL Draft. He was delayed in earning the starting job for the Rams under coach Jeff Fisher but midway through the season, they gave him a shot.

One of his first games? It was against the Saints.

It was his second career start and it was the first time he was able to demonstrate what he could do in the NFL. He passed for 214 yards and threw three touchdowns in the process. Not the greatest passing yardage but the game in general proved to be a major step in his development as a rookie. Since then, he has played the Saints a total of three more times and has shown he can find success against the best of the NFC South.

In his career against the Saints, Goff has averaged 310 passing yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, Goff has only three turnovers in those four career games. That stat brings us full circle to this weekend, the turnovers have been a killer for Goff, and in the last two weeks, he has played some of his worst football. A game for him against an opponent that he has historically done very well against could be exactly what the doctor ordered to get this season back on track for the Lions.

The current Saints defense is ranking as a top-ten defense in nearly every category so this won’t be easy. If Goff can not get in his own head, and limit the turnovers, he can get back on track. This season is still full of plenty of promise but they have to get things going again starting with this matchup with the Saints.

Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing Week 11 with Bears Wire

Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the Lions Week 11 matchup against Chicago with Bears Wire

The Detroit Lions kick off the home portion of their NFC North schedule in Week 11, welcoming the Chicago Bears to Ford Field on Sunday. It’s the first of two divisional home game in four days for Detroit.

The Bears have been an enigmatic team in 2023. On their way to a 3-7 record, they’ve dealt with injuries and a recent trade that bolstered their defense.

To help dive deeper into this week’s opponent, I called upon Bears Wire editor Alyssa Barbieri for some questions and answers about Chicago.

Jahmyr Gibbs has a fantastic matchup advantage against the Bears defense

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs has a fantastic matchup advantage against the Bears defense

Jahmyr Gibbs is set to face the Chicago Bears for the first time in his NFL career. It could be a special Sunday for the Lions rookie running back.

Chicago’s run defense is very good. No team allows fewer yards per carry than the Bears and their 3.2 YPC figure. Over their last six games, the Bears allow under 50 yards per game on the ground.

However, teams that can throw the ball to their running backs have eaten the Bears alive. Chicago’s defense ranks at or very near the bottom in all of the following metrics:

  • Receptions by RB (60) – 30th
  • Receiving yards by RB (615) – 32nd
  • Yards per reception (10.3) – 32nd
  • Receiving TDs by RB (5) – 32nd
  • Missed tackles on RBs as receivers (28) – 32nd

Safeties Elijah Hicks and Jaquan Brisker each struggle in coverage against both TEs and RBs, but it’s most pronounced with LB Tremaine Edmunds. He’s bad at covering RBs, allowing a completion percentage over 90 percent— but even worse at tackling them after the catch. Both Edmunds (15%) and Hicks (30%) have very high missed tackle rates in the passing game.

Now factor in the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs as one of the NFL’s most prolific receivers out of the backfield already. In seven games, Gibbs has caught 31 passes for 200 yards. Alvin Kamara of the Saints is the only RB who averages more catches per game than Gibbs.

Gibbs’ ability to quickly transition from receiver to runner should allow the rookie to capitalize on the receiving opportunities against Chicago. Gibbs has racked up 142 yards after the catch in the last three games on 17 receptions.

The Lions haven’t used Gibbs much outside of a safety outlet or a quick-hit target on designed short-yardage throws. He has seen scant action as a slot receiver, with just 17 snaps in his seven games. Those 142 yards after the catch are actually 12 more than the total receiving yards he’s gained.

Yet over the summer in training camp and joint practices, as well as in college at Alabama, Gibbs proved to be a very polished, dynamic route runner from the slot. He has enough receiving acumen to play outside WR, too. That’s something Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can lean on in Week 11 against the Bears and their revamped pass rush of late.

Chicago might be able to slow down Gibbs on the ground. But he’s an absolute mismatch for the Lions as a receiving threat. Just for good measure, fellow Lions RB David Montgomery and Craig Reynold are both excellent (albeit low-volume) receivers, too.

All statistical data courtesy of SIS Sports

 

Lions vs. Chargers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Chargers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction from Lions Wire’s Jeff Risdon

We’re back into more of a normal Lions routine…mostly. After a Monday night game and a bye week, it’s been a few weeks since I enjoyed the Sunday morning pot of coffee while pondering the day’s Lions game.

Of course, today’s game is a late-afternoon kickoff in Los Angeles. At least the NFL has given us a breakfast game from Germany to help wake up the football mind.

Here’s what I’m thinking about the Lions and the Chargers in Week 10.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • This Lions unit is about as close to full strength as any team can reasonably be expected to be in Week 10. The bye week came at a great time for Detroit, allowing a lot of key players with nagging injuries to rest and heal. It’s especially true on the offensive line, and that’s the engine that runs Ben Johnson’s offense.
  • The Chargers are on the wrong end of the schedule hose. They played in New York on Monday Night a week after playing on Sunday night in L.A. Their bye came in Week 5, so there’s no rest for the wicked.
  • L.A.’s offense gets one-dimensional too easily. Their last game, the Monday Night Football win over the Jets, is a great example. The Chargers ran the ball 21 times, but nine of those attempts came on their final 10 offensive plays, with the outcome already decided. Four other carries came on 3rd-and-short situations. The Lions defense handles predictable, one-dimensional offenses well. The Chargers have considerable talent with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen et al, but paint by the passing numbers way too often offensively. Aaron Glenn’s defense should be able to handle that.
  • The Chargers pass defense is really bad overall. They’re really good at two things: pressuring the quarterback and creating takeaways. Actual coverage and tackling? Not so much. They’re bottom-tier in yards per pass attempt (30th), passing yards per game (32nd), net yards per attempt (28th), 3rd down conversion rate via pass (30th), and opposing QB Rating (25th). As long as Jared Goff avoids mistakes–which he’s done very well all season–and the healthy OL gives him a little time, it could be a very big game for the Lions passing offense.

What worries me about the Chargers

  • The Chargers are very good at converting red zone possessions into points. The L.A. defense is middle-of-the-pack in the red zone, but Detroit’s offense (somehow) ranks near the bottom in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That could be a real problem if the game evolves into a shootout.
  • That Chargers defensive front/pass rush is as good as any the Lions will see all year. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack get the attention, but L.A. is a lot more than just those two All-Pros. EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu is a front-runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year, leading all rookies in sacks, QB pressures and penalties drawn. Morgan Fox might be the most anonymous player in the league with five sacks. They also blitz LB Kenneth Murray quite effectively. The Chargers are 3rd in TFLs on first-down run plays, too. Even against a great Lions OL, they’re capable of ruining the day.
  • Los Angeles leads the NFL in turnover margin, including the dumb luck of recovering a league-high nine fumbles on defense and special teams. They’ve given the ball up just six times in eight games. I believe in two things here: regression to the mean is coming, but the positive inertia of good luck is a fickle mistress to tangle with.
  • At some point, they have to stop underachieving relative to high-end talent. Right? Right?! There is some existential dread that coach Brandon Staley figures out how to stop “Chargering” and does it against Detroit.

Final score prediction

This is a tough one. On paper, the Chargers should be a very difficult matchup for Detroit. Los Angeles probably should expect to win this game at home. I don’t fault anyone for thinking (or betting) that the Chargers will win.

There are many scenarios in the bottom of my coffee mug where the Lions lose this one. But I topped off the java and feel good about the Lions not losing. Emphasis on “not losing” more than winning. The Chargers need to force mistakes on both sides of the ball to beat a team. I trust Dan Campbell’s Lions to not make those costly mistakes. I expect a sharp Lions team that is looking to make a statement coming out of the bye, too.

Lions 27, Chargers 20

Watch: Lions vs. Chargers Preview with Bish and Brown

Previewing the Lions vs Chargers with Russell Brown and Scott Bischoff of the Detroit Lions Podcast

On another episode of Bish and Brown for the Detroit Lions Podcast, the boys are back with a preview for the Lions week 10 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Here’s everything the guys discuss in this episode:

  • Props to Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs
  • Landscape of the NFC North at the halfway mark
  • Lions/Chargers Preview

What’s your score prediction for this week Lions fans? Drop your predictions in the comments and be sure to rate, review and subscribe to the show! Also, you can follow the guys on X @RussNFLDraft and @Bischoff_Scott!

Detroit Lions Podcast: Bish & Brown preview Lions vs. Raiders on Monday Night Football

Scott Bischoff & Russell Brown preview Lions vs. Raiders on Monday Night Football

In addition to my content here on the Lions Wire, I’ve also been fortunate enough to team up with my friend and colleague Scott Bischoff. We’ll be teaming up and producing a weekly show for our friends over at the Detroit Lions Podcast network.

On this show, we’ll obviously talk about the Lions. However, we’ll also discuss their weekly opponent, how we expect the game to go and at some point, we’ll start adding some NFL Draft content into the mix.

In this episode of Bish & Brown, we discuss the following:

  • What went wrong with the Detroit Lions after their loss to the Baltimore Ravens (including Jared Goff’s issues)?
  • Views on Jameson Williams and how people should be reacting to Jamo right now.
  • NFL Trade Deadline
  • Preview the Lions upcoming match-up against their next opponent, from the AFC, the Las Vegas Raiders.

Key matchups for the Lions against the Panthers in Week 5

Key matchups for the Detroit Lions against the visiting Carolina Panthers in Week 5

The Detroit Lions look to keep their hot start going when they travel to Carolina to face off against the Panthers. The Panthers themselves have had a rough start to the year but their top pick Bryce Young isn’t showing any signs of giving up nor are his teammates.

Could this be a trap game for the Lions? Perhaps. Could this be a good lesson for a team on a long road that they hope doesn’t end till February? Yes.

This game has some interesting matchups to look at and analyze. For the Panthers especially, their passing offense is primed for some sort of success as Young gets more NFL reps. The Lions should have the advantage in that department and others but it will come down to some critical matchups.

5 Lions who need to play well against the Seahawks

The Detroit Lions host the Seattle Seahawks at home for their Week 2 matchup. Here are 5 players who need to play well against the Seahawks

The Detroit Lions are looking to continue their momentum into Week 2 when they face off against the Seattle Seahawks, who lost their first game against the Los Angeles Rams.

The Lions made a statement in their season opener and are expected to bring the same energy to Ford Field. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are dealing with some injuries that the Lions can capitalize on to secure their second win in as many weeks. After reviewing their performance in the Kansas City game, the coaches and players have had time to prepare for the tough Seattle opponent during the mini-bye.

To secure their victory, the Lions will need to rely on the performance of several key players. Here are five Lions players who need to play well against the Seahawks.