Category: picks and predictions

2024 RSM Classic final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 RSM Classic at the Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 RSM Classic and 9 golfers are within 5 strokes of the co-leaders in the final PGA Tour event of the season. Below, we look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s PGA Tour odds for the RSM Classic entering Sunday’s final round being played in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Check back throughout next season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.

Vince Whaley and Maverick McNealy share the 54-hole lead at 14-under 198 and will take a 2-stroke into Sunday’s final round at Sea Island Golf Course Seaside Course (7,005 yards, par 70).

Pre-tournament favorite and defending champ Ludvig Aberg (+1000 to open the week) is tied for 42nd at 4-under after rounds of 73-64-71. Aberg won at 29-under 53 last year closing with a 61-61 on the weekend.

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RSM Classic – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of PGA Tour odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:55 p.m. ET.

Vince Whaley (+350)

The 29-year-old pro from Kentucky, who opened at +10000 to win, birdied the 18th hole for a 63 on Saturday after shooting 67-68 and is at 14-under. He will be playing in the final group for the first time on tour in 109 events and he looks for his first career title.

Maverick McNealy (+225)

The 29-year-old pro from California, who opened at +3500 to win, shot a third-round 66 after shooting 62-70 and shares the lead at 14-under. He’s seeking his first career title in his 141st tournament.

Daniel Berger (+750)

The 31-year-old pro from Florida, who opened at +9000 to win, shot a 63 on Saturday to move into a 4-way for third at 12-under 200. He’s seeking his fifth PGA title in 205 starts.

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RSM Classic – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 11:06 a.m. ET (1-4 p.m. ET, Golf Channel), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

MacKenzie Hughes (+700): Starts tied for third place, 2 shots back at 12-under rounds of 68-67-65. He opened at +3500.

Michael Thorbjornsen (+850): He also starts tied for third place — after rounds of 64-69-67. He opened at +8000.

Patrick Fishburn (+900): Also in third — after rounds of 67-64-69. He opened at +5500.

RSM Classic – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Ben Griffin (+550 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 25th place at 6-under with rounds of 69-72-65.

Harris English (+300 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 42nd place at 4-under with rounds of 67-72-69.

Henrik Norlander (+350 to make top 20): Starts final round tied for 12th place at 8-under with round of 71-70-63.

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UFC Fight Night 248: Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 248 odds between Song Kenan and Muslim Salikhov, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Song Kenan and Muslim Salikhov battle at UFC Fight Night 248 Saturday at Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 248: Song vs. Salikhov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 6 a.m. ET. All events can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+.

Records: Song (22-8-0) | Salikhov (20-5-0)

Song takes the walk to the octagon with a 1.5-inch reach advantage, and he’ll likely have a pro-China crowd on his side in nearby Macau, too. He holds a 4.57-to-3.32 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although the veteran Salikhov is a lot more accurate on those strikes at 52.86%. He is also better in the takedown average department, posting a 1.12 mark, to just 0.43 for Song.

Kenan has needed the judges in each of his past 3 fights, winning 2 of those outings, including a unanimous-decision win over Ricky Glenn at UFC 305. For Salikhov, he picked up a split-decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out in mid-July, halting a 2-bout skid.

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UFC Fight Night 248: Song vs. Salikhov odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated Friday at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Song +156 (bet $100 to win $156) | Salikhov -186 (bet $186 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over -164 | Under +128)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -132 | No +104)

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UFC Fight Night 248: Song vs. Salikhov picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Salikhov (-186) is just a little too expensive to play straight up. The 40-year-old veteran, a.k.a. the “King of Kung Fu,” has seen it all in his illustrious career. He won’t be fazed by what is expected to be a pro-Song crowd.

While, yes, Salikhov is 2-3 in his past 5 fights, he has fought some of the top fighters in the division, and he had a KO/TKO of Andre Fialho Nov. 2022 during the 5-bout span.

Song (+156) has ended up going the distance in each of his past 3 fights, and he hasn’t fought the same type of top-tier welterweights that Salikhov has faced, nor does he have nearly the same experience.

BACK SALIKHOV BY POINTS (+185) for the chance to nearly double up.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-164) is a little more pricey, but you couldn’t be blamed for playing it if you want a little wiggle room in the even of a late finish in Round 3.

Still, the preferred play is simply going YES: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (-132) at a much more economical price. With Song going to the judges in each of the past 3 fights, this could be the best play on the board.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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UFC Fight Night 248: Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 248 odds between Yan Xiaonan and Tabatha Ricci, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Yan Xiaonan and Tabatha Ricci battle at UFC Fight Night 248 Saturday at Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Ricci odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 6 a.m. ET. All events can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+.

Records: Yan (18-4-0) | Ricci (11-2-0)

Yan had a shot at the women’s strawweight title last time out against Zhang Weili, but she suffered a setback via unanimous decision. The 35-year-old Chinese fighter is now just 2-3 across the past 5 fights. Her last victory came via first-round KO/TKO against Jessica Andrade at UFC 288 in May 2023.

For Ricci, she won against Angela Hill via unanimous decision last time out on Aug. 24, 2024. She has won 2 in a row, and 6 of the past 7, while she has ended up going the distance in 4 straight outings. Her last finish was a second-round submission against Jessica Penne at UFC 285.

Yan holds a 2-inch reach advantage over Ricci, with a slight edge in significant strikes landed per minute and significant strike accuracy percentage, too. Ricci is much better with a 2.99 takedown average, although Yan is significantly more accurate on takedowns at 73.33%.

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UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Ricci odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated Friday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Yan -184 (bet $184 to win $100) | Ricci +154 (bet $100 to win $154)
  • Total rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over -410 | Under +290)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -350 | No +250)

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UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Ricci picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Yan (-184) is fighting in Macau, which is much closer to her native China, so the crowd will presumably be behind her.

Ricci can match Yan in the significant strikes department, but the favorite is much more accurate, and that will likely mean the difference when the judges go to the scorecards.

We’re expecting this fight to go the distance because 3 of Yan’s past 5 fights, and 9 of her 11 fights at the UFC level, have ended up going all the way.

For Ricci, she also gets the judges involved frequently, with 4 straight decisions, while going the distance in 6 of the past 7 outings.

Play YAN BY POINTS (-105) at near even-money for the best play on the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

You can’t play Over 2.5 Rounds (-410) or Yes: Will the fight go the distance? (-350), whether it’s straight up or as part of a multi-leg parlay. The risk outweighs the reward way too much.

PASS, and simply focus on the Method of Victory and winner instead.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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UFC Fight Night 248: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 248 odds between Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round bantamweight bout in the main event, Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo battle at UFC Fight Night 248 Saturday at Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Figueiredo odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 6 a.m. ET. All events can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+.

Records: Yan (17-5-0) | Figueiredo (24-3-1)

Yan, a former champ, is looking to work his way back to the top of the division. He lost his strap to Aljamain Sterling at UFC 273 in a split-decision setback April 9, 2022.

Yan also lost via split decision to Sean O’Malley at UFC 280, before a unanimous-decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili in March 2023. He finally stemmed the tide of losing with a unanimous-decision victory over Song Yadong at UFC 299. You’re probably noticing a pattern, as that’s 5 straight fights to go the distance.

Figueiredo, also a former champ, has posted 3 straight wins over quality opponents since losing his belt to Brandon Moreno at UFC 283 in the fourth fight of their rivalry. Figueiredo topped Rob Font via unanimous decision, he submitted Cody Garbrandt in Round 2 at UFC 300, and he won via unanimous decision against Marlon Vera in Aug. 2024.

Figueiredo holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Yan has a solid 5.14-to-3.01 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The difference is negligible in significant strikes accuracy percentage, with Figueiredo holding an advantage by less than 1%.

The same holds true in takedown average, with Yan leading 1.73 to 1.68, although he is much more effective at 51.02% in takedown accuracy percentage, to just 35.94% for the Brazilian. When Figueiredo gets you on the canvas, though, he is much more effective with a 1.60 submission average, to just 0.14 for Yan.

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UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Figueiredo odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated Friday at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Yan -310 (bet $310 to win $100) | Figueiredo +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
  • Total rounds: 4.5 Rounds (Over -174 | Under +138)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -172 | No +132)

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UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Figueiredo picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Call me crazy, but FIGUEIREDO (+250) looks like a live ‘dog at this price. He will help you more than double up, and really, he has been fighting better than Yan (-310) lately.

The Brazilian has 3 straight victories over Font, Garbrandt and Vera — some of the biggest names in the division — as Figueiredo looks to position himself for 1 final shot at the strap.

If he is to win this bout, he’ll need to avoid a toe-to-toe brawl with Yan, and it would behoove him to get to the canvas as early as possible. Figueiredo will win this bout with a solid showing with plenty of top position, especially since neither of these fighters has had a lot of finishes lately, and it’s all about style points.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-174) is slightly more expensive, but it gives you a little big of wiggle room in the event of a potential late finish in Round 5. Yes: Will fight go the distance (-172) is slightly cheaper, but not as good of a play.

Again, Yan has ended up going the distance in 5 consecutive fights, while Figueiredo has ended up going all the way in 3 of the previous 5 outings.

FIGUEIREDO ON POINTS (+460) is also too tempting to pass up. If you like the underdog to win, that’s certainly worth a roll of the dice.

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2024 RSM Classic prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 RSM Classic with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The last official event of the season takes place this week in St. Simons Island, Ga., at the 2024 RSM Classic. It’s once again being hosted by Sea Island Golf Club, with the first round beginning on Thursday morning.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the 2024 RSM Classic from BetMGM Sportsbook’s PGA Tour odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The No. 5 player in the world, Ludvig Aberg, is back to defend his title this week after winning the RSM Classic by 4 shots last year. He’s predictably the favorite to win again, coming in with pre-tournament odds of +1000. Davis Thompson (+2000), Seamus Power (+2800) and Si Woo Kim (+2800) are also among the favorites, as is former Open champion Brian Harman (+3000).

Sea Island Golf Club features 2 courses, both of which will be played this week. The Seaside Course is 7,005 yards and plays as a par 70, while the Plantation Course is 7,060 yards and is a par 72. Players will tee it up on each course in Rounds 1 and 2 before playing the Seaside Course on the weekend.

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RSM Classic – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of PGA Tour odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:54 p.m. ET.

Ben Griffin (+550)

Griffin enters the week in good form, finishing 22nd or better in each of his last 3 starts. Though he doesn’t have a top-5 in 2 starts in this event, he has played well here with finishes of eighth and 29th in his last 2 appearances.

Davis Thompson (+450)

Thompson’s ball-striking abilities were on display in his win at the John Deere Classic in July when he ran away from the field with a 4-shot victory. He could have a similarly impressive driving week at the RSM Classic, and his odds would be much shorter if not for Aberg being in the field.

RSM Classic – Top-10 picks

Harris English (+300)

English’s best finish in this event was a sixth-place showing in 2020, one of 4 top-30s in his last 9 starts at the RSM Classic. He already has 3 top-20 finishes in his last 3 starts this fall, including 2 top 10s.

Lucas Glover (+350)

Glover has come in the top 10 once here since 2015, a ninth-place finish that year to go along with another T-11 in 2018. He had been playing well in Bermuda last week before a final-round 6-over sunk his tournament chances, but that round was an outlier.

Justin Lower (+375)

Lower was also in the mix in Bermuda, finishing tied for fifth despite shooting 1-over on Sunday to slide down the leaderboard. He now has back-to-back top-5 finishes in his last 2 tournaments so it’s worth riding the hot hand.

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RSM Classic – Top-20 picks

Patrick Rodgers (+175)

Rodgers has 3 top-25 finishes in his last 4 starts this season, including a ninth-place in Bermuda last week. He has a good track record at Sea Island Golf Club with finishes of 10th and second since 2018.

Henrik Norlander (+350)

Norlander was the runner-up here in 2016 and also came in 5th in 2019, so his track record here has been good. He also has 2 top-30 finishes this fall, including an eighth-place finish.

RSM Classic – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Davis Thompson (+125) vs. Ludvig Aberg (-155)

Aberg wouldn’t be playing in this event if he hadn’t won it last year. It’s his first PGA Tour start since the Tour Championship so some rust is to be expected, whereas a player like Thompson just finished fifth a month ago at the Shriners Children’s Open.

RSM Classic – Top Canadian

Mackenzie Hughes (+138)

Hughes has a slight edge in this market, coming in as the favorite over Adam Svensson (+188). Hughes has played 3 events this fall and made the cut in all of them, finishing fourth and eighth in 2 of those starts.

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2024 RSM Classic odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 RSM Classic, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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The PGA Tour will wrap up the FedExCup Fall portion of the schedule this week with the 2024 RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. The first round will begin on Thursday morning where Ludvig Aberg will try to defend his title.

Below, we look at RSM Classic odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s PGA Tour odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Aberg is the headliner in the field, coming into the week with pre-tournament odds of +1000. Davis Thompson has the second-best odds (+2200), with 5 others tied at +2800 – including J.T. Poston and Seamus Power. Former Open champion Brian Harman (+3000) is also teeing it up in his home state this week.

This event will be played at 2 courses: the Seaside Course and Plantation Course. Neither is terribly long, with the Plantation Course playing at 7,060 yards and the Seaside at 7,005 yards. The Seaside Course is a links layout, while the Plantation Course is a more traditional layout with tree-lined fairways, waste areas and water hazards

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RSM Classic – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of PGA Tour odds. Lines last updated Monday at 4:04 p.m. ET.

Harris English (+3000)

English has played this tournament in each of the last 9 years, making the cut 5 times with 4 top-30 finishes. His best finish was sixth in 2020 and he comes into the week having played well this fall with finishes of T-6, T-9 and T-14 in his last 3 starts.

Ben Griffin (+2800)

Griffin hasn’t finished worse than 22nd in his last 3 starts so he enters the week in good form. He’s fresh off a solo eighth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, too, finishing only 6 shots off the champion at 19-under par. In his last 2 starts in this event, he’s come in 29th and 8th.

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RSM Classic picks – Contenders

Lucas Glover (+4500)

Glover feels like a good value at +4500. Since 2015, he has 3 top-25 finishes, including a ninth place in 2015 and 11th in 2018. Plus, he has 3 top-15 finishes in his last 6 starts this season. We might be getting a little bit of a discount, too, after he shot 6-over on Sunday in Bermuda to drop from 12-under, which would’ve been ninth, to 42nd.

Patrick Rodgers (+4000)

Rodgers shot 1-under in Sunday’s round in Bermuda to finish ninth, his second straight top-25 and third in his last 4 starts. In his last start at the RSM Classic, he finished 10th in 2022 and was the runner-up in 2018.

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RSM Classic picks – Long shots

Henrik Norlander (+10000)

Norlander has started in this event 8 times in the last 9 years with his best finish being a runner-up in 2016. He also came in fifth in 2019, so he has some experience at Sea Island Golf Club. His play has tapered off a little bit as the fall has progressed, but he did come in 8th in the Black Desert Championship and 30th in the World Wide Technology Championship.

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2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship and a dozen golfers are within 5 strokes of the co-leaders. Below, we look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s PGA Tour odds for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship entering Sunday’s final round being played in Southampton, Bermuda. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.

Rafael Campos and Andrew Novak both shot 9-under 62’s Saturday and share the lead at 16-under-par 197 and will take a 1-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Port Royal Golf Course (6,828 yards, par 71).

Pre-tournament favorite Seamus Power (+1400 to start the week) is tied for 60th place at 3-under after rounds of 72-68-70. Defending champion Camilo Villegas, who won at 24-under 260, is tied for 39th place at 7-under after shooting 72-68-66. He opened at +30000 to win.

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of PGA Tour odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:34 p.m. ET.

Rafael Campos (+333)

The 36-year-old pro from Puerto Rico, who opened at +2500 to win, shot a 9-under 62 Saturday to go with a 70-65 and is at 16-under 207. He shot a 7-under 29 on the front Saturday and will try for his first career title in his 79th tour start.

Andrew Novak (+150)

The 29-year-old pro, who opened at +3000 to win, shot 9-under 62 Saturday to go with a 67-68. He’s trying for his first career title in his 84th tour start.

Justin Lower (+300)

The 35-year-old pro, who opened at +2500 to win, shot a 3-under 68 to go with a pair of 65’s and will start 1 shot back at 15-under as he tries for first career title in his 94th tour start.

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 8:55 a.m. ET (11 a.m.-2 p.m. ET, Golf Channel), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leaders.

Wesley Bryan (+1200): He tied the course record with a 10-under 61 in round 3 and with his 67-72, he’s in third place, 3 shots back at 13-under. He opened at +5500.

Lucas Glover (+2500): He starts tied for fifth place, 4 shots back at 12-under after rounds of 68-67-66. He opened at +2800.

Sam Ryder (+4000): He tied for fifth place, 4 shots back at 12-under after rounds of 71-62-68. He opened at +9000.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Justin Lower (+450 to make top 5): Looking good as he starts final round in third place.

Nico Echavarria (+250 to make top 10): Not looking good as he starts tied for 48th place at 6-under with rounds of 69-70-68.

Vince Whaley (+200 to make top 20): Starts final round tied for 8th place at 11-under with rounds of 67-68-67. We also pegged Greyson Sigg here at +160 and he’s tied for 15th at 10-under with rounds of 67-67-69.

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UFC 309: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 309 odds between Charles Olivera vs. Michael Chandler, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight bout on the main card, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler battle at UFC 309 on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Oliveira vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Oliveira (34-10-0) | Chandler (23-8-0)

Oliveira is looking to rebound after a split-decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 in mid-April. He lost his lightweight strap to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280, and while he followed that up with a first-round KO/TKO of veteran Beneil Dariush at UFC 289, after the loss to Tsarukyan, he is currently considered the No. 2 contender.

Chandler is also looking to bounce back from a loss, as he was submitted by Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 in his most recent showing Nov. 12, 2022. He is also looking for redemption, after eating fists at UFC 262 against Oliveira in their first matchup for the title on May 15, 2021. Oliveira won that fight via KO/TKO just 19 seconds into Round 2.

The 35-year-old Brazilian Muay Thai specialist Oliveira has a 2.5-inch reach advantage over the 38-year-old American fighter. Chandler holds a 4.89-to-3.39 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Oliveira is a little more accurate at 61.97% to just 51.79% for Chandler.

On the ground, Oliveira is deadly, posting a 2.81 submission average, to just 0.87 for Chandler. Both have a 2.17 takedown average, with Oliveira slightly more accurate on takedowns at 40.0%.

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UFC 309: Oliveira vs. Chandler odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Oliveira -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Chandler +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
  • Total rounds: 1.5 Rounds (Over -112 | Under -112)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +590 | No -1100)

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UFC 309: Oliveira vs. Chandler picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Oliviera (-250) has done it before against Chandler, knocking him out in short order in the first meeting. However, both fighters are coming off a loss, and risking 2½ times the potential return is not a smart investment. Let’s get a little more specific.

OLIVEIRA BY SUBMISSION (+150) is a much more attractive play, with much less risk, too. When the Brazilian can get fighters to the ground, it usually doesn’t end well for the opposition. He uses punishing Muay Thai kicks to the calves, weakening the legs of his opponent early on, before getting them to the canvas for the finish. He has been one of the best in UFC history, and while Chandler is a tremendous wrestler, it’s hard to come back from those devastating kicks to the calves.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-112) is the best play on the board. While Oliveira will be trying to get this down to the mat early and often, Chandler is smart enough to hang around. This won’t be easy by any stretch, and it will be a lot more entertaining than that farce we saw on Netflix Friday night.

However, you can’t play the distance props as there is literally zero chance this fight goes all the way, yet you can’t play No (-1100): Will the fight go the distance, risking 11 times the potential return. That makes no sense, either.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 309 odds between Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout, Bo Nickal and Paul Craig battle at UFC 309 Saturday at Madison Square Garden on the main card. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Nickal vs. Craig odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Nickal (6-0-0) | Craig (17-8-1)

Nickal has picked up 3 wins in 3 appearances at the UFC level, and he has had finishes in each of the outings. Nickal wasted no time with a first-round submission of Jamie Pickett in his company debut at UFC 285, while making quick work of Val Woodburn in just 38 seconds with a KO/TKO at UFC 290.

Nickal had to go a little deeper against Cody Brundage last time out at UFC 300, but he ended up with the submission win in Round 2, his second victory via the method in 3 UFC battles.

Craig lost via KO/TKO to Caio Borralho last time out at UFC 301, falling in 2 rounds, and he is just 1-4 in the previous 5 fights. His lone win was a KO/TKO is Andre Muniz on July 22, 2023. He has been knocked out twice in the past 5 fights, while losing via submission once, with a unanimous decision setback, too.

The reach length for both fighters is identical at 76 inches. The southpaw Nickal has just 1.64 significant strikes landed per minute, but he is very accurate at 72.94% on those strikes. He also has a ridiculous 7.46 takedown average and submission average. Once you go to the mat with Nickal, it’s not going to end well.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 309: Nickal vs. Craig odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 2:27 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Nickal -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100) | Craig +830 (bet $100 to win $830)
  • Total rounds: 1.5 Rounds (Over +142 | Under -180)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +610 | No -1100)

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UFC 309: Nickal vs. Craig picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Nickal (-1400) will set you back 14 times your potential return. It’s not wise to bet such a strong favorite straight up. Even if it seems like a sure thing, there is just no value betting such a heavy favorite for such a small return. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, it makes no sense.

You can make money in this fight by playing a 4-leg Same Game Parlay, however, using these plays:

  • Nickal by submission: Method of victory (+200)
  • Nickal: Most significant strikes (-235)
  • Under: 1.5 total rounds (-180)
  • No: Will the fight go the distance?

If you bet this 4-LEG SAME-GAME PARLAY (+444), a $10 wager nets a profit of $44.40 with a total payout of $54.40.

Over/Under (O/U)

If you prefer not to do the SGP above, or are perhaps worried about the potential of a knockout, UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-180) is pricey, but still the best play in terms of fight length. You can’t mess with No: Will fight go the distance? (-1100) as that requires risking 11 times the return.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 309 odds between Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the main event, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic battle at UFC 309 Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on Hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Jones (27-1-0) | Miocic (20-4-0)

Jones returned to the octagon after a 3-year absence, posting a first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane to snatch the heavyweight strap at UFC 285 in his step up to the heavyweight division. The 37-year-old is making his way back from a torn pectoral muscle, which pushed this event back more than a year.

Miocic last fought at UFC 260, losing in a second-round KO/TKO against Francis Ngannou in a championship bout. The greatest heavyweight in UFC history now gets a shot at the most decorated fighter in company history in an epic showdown between 2 fighters at the tail end of their careers.

Miocic is a punching machine who will want to try and keep this an upright brawl, while Jones will want to get him down to the canvas to get all serpentine on the former champ, looking for a submission victory.

Jones has a 4.5-inch reach advantage, while the difference in significant strikes landed per minute, as well as the accuracy on those strikes, is fairly negligible.

Jones has an ever-so-slight 1.93-to-1.86 takedown average, with a 45.36% takedown accuracy percentage, to just 34.25% for Miocic. Bones has a 0.48 submission average, too, which he’d love to improve.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:24 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Jones -700 (bet $700 to win $100) | Miocic +475 (bet $100 to win $475)
  • Total rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -500)

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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Jones (-700) will cost you more 7 times your potential return, if you’re looking to back him straight up. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

As far as Miocic (+475) is concerned, the layoff has just been too much, and that makes him a super risky pick. It would be an amazing upset, and frankly, it’s stunning to see the former champ, and one of the most dominant heavyweights in UFC history, as such a heavy underdog. It’s tempting to play him straight up.

The best course of action is to take JONES BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even money. Miocic has been away a while, and it won’t end well against Jones, one of the best to ever do it.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) may be the best play on the board.

Jones has actually ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, but those distance bouts were from March 2019 to Feb. 2020. In his most recent bout in March 2023, he needed just 2:04 to submit Gane.

For Miocic, he has seen just 2 of his past 10 fights go the distance, and 5 of those fights didn’t make it out of the first round. It would be stunning to see this one last into the night.

As far as No (-500): Will fight go the distance?, that’s just way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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