Category: picks and betting tips

UFC on ESPN 51: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 51 odds and lines between Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout in the main event, Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Luque (21-9-1) | dos Anjos (32-14-0)

Luque heads to the octagon with back-to-back setbacks, suffering a KO/TKO in the 3rd round against Geoff Neal last time out in Aug. 2022 and losing via unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad in April 2022. His most recent victory was a 1st-round submission against Michael Chiesa back on Aug. 7, 2021.

Dos Anjos submitted Bryan Barberena last time out in early December as he bounced back from a KO/TKO loss to Rafael Fiziev in July 2022. He has picked up 3 wins in the past 4 bouts after a pair of unanimous-decision setbacks to Chiesa and Leon Edwards. He has gone the distance in 9 of his last 13 bouts dating back to Nov. 2016.

Luque boasts an impressive 5 1/2-inch reach advantage, and that should serve him well in keeping dos Anjos at a distance, picking and choosing his spots for the big blow. The 31-year-old Brazilian also holds a solid 5.49-to-3.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

If dos Anjos is to make any noise, he’ll want to get Luque to the canvas. RDA sports a solid 2.05 takedown average, while Luque has just a 0.51 takedown average. The underdog Luque is a little more accurate on takedowns, too, posting a 50.0% mark, while dos Anjos has managed a 35.87% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:49 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Luque +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | dos Anjos -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)

UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LUQUE (+100) is a solid value straight up on the 2-way line as a short ‘dog at even money.

I believe Luque will use his immense reach advantage to his advantage, dictating the pace of the fight. He’ll be able to pick and choose his spots to go in for the big shot while holding dos Anjos at a distance.

However, I don’t feel as if Luque is going to be able to score the finish. METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) is super attractive for an opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 5 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+120): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look at plus money, if you don’t want to declare a winner, yet want a little action in this fight. OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-125) isn’t priced out of line, if you want a little wiggle room in the event of a potential late-round stoppage.

And I think Luque will be able to land more significant strikes than dos Anjos, so go OVER (-110) ON LUQUE – TOTAL SIGNIFICANT STRIKES.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Cub Swanson vs. Hakeen Dawodu odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 51 odds and lines between Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Swanson (28-13-0) | Dawodu (13-3-1)

Swanson has alternated losses and wins across his past 4 fights. He suffered a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss against Jonathan Martinez last time out in mid-Octobert, and all 4 of the aforementioned fights have resulted in knockouts. His last fight to go the distance was against Kron Gracie on Oct. 12, 2019.

Dawodu has also alternated losses and wins across the past 4 outings, with 3 straight unanimous decisions. The Canadian fighter has involved the judges in 5 straight outings, with his last finish coming in a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Yoshinori Horie on July 27, 2019.

Dawodu holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage and a 5.33-to-4.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The veteran Swanson has an ever-so-slight 54.81%-to-53.94% significant strikes accuracy percentage advantage. Swanson can do work on the canvas if needed, but that’s not Dawodu’s game and he hasn’t recorded a takedown at the UFC level.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:31 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Swanson +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Dawodu -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -105 | No -130)

UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Dawodu (-225) has a big reach advantage, and I expect him to be able to draw the veteran in and out when he chooses. Swanson (+185) will likely try to get the Canadian fighter in the clinch, looking to score points with the judges, but Dawodu is likely to be able to keep him at a distance.

However, you cannot risk more than 2 times your potential return on the favorite. Instead, I really like METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: DAWODU BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+200) for a chance to double up. I don’t think he can knock out Swanson, who is too savvy of a veteran, but I do think he will do more to wow the judges.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-250) is just too steep of a price tag, costing more than 2 1/2 times your potential return.

Instead, look to YES (-105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for a much better value. Dawodu has gone the distance in 5 consecutive bouts and has needed the judges to decide a victor in 7 of his previous 8 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Chris Daukaus odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 51 odds and lines between Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Chris Daukaus with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Khalil Rountree Jr. and Chris Daukaus meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Rountree Jr. (12-5-0) | Daukaus (12-6-0)

Rountree Jr. takes the walk with a 3-fight win streak in tow. He picked up a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby last time out in late October on the heels of a pair of 2nd-round KO/TKO wins against Karl Roberson (March 2022) and Modestas Bukauskas (Sept. 2021).

The southpaw Rountree Jr. has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage. That’s about the only category in his favor though, as he has just 3.67 significant strikes landed per minute to 6.41 for Daukaus and lands just 41.99% of those strikes while Daukaus connects with a 52.20% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

Daukaus enters on a 3-bout losing skid, having been knocked out in each of his bouts against Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Dec. 2022), Curtis Blaydes (March 2022) and Derrick Lewis (Dec. 2021). Win or lose, he makes it exciting. All 7 of Daukaus’ fights at the UFC level have resulted in knockouts, with 4 going in his favor — including 3 in the 1st round. He has also never been past the 1:23 mark of the 2nd round in his 7 UFC bouts.

As far as KRJ is concerned, he has gone the distance in just 3 of his past 8 bouts, with 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 KO/TKO losses. Don’t blink when this fight comes on or you might miss it.

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UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rountree Jr. -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Daukaus +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +135 | Under -175)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +375 | No -650)

UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rountree Jr. (-185) enters the octagon with momentum, winning the past 3 fights, but facing DAUKAUS (+150) is a big step up in competition. Daukaus has faced down the top fighters in the division, and won’t be fazed against “The War Horse”.

Daukaus is a whirling dervish who throws all kinds of punches, and he lands his significant strikes more frequently than his counterpart. In addition, he doesn’t go long, and win or lose, this fight will end in a knockout. I like the underdog straight up, but METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: DAUKAUS BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+250) is pretty tasty, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) comes with a pretty steep price tag, but it’s worth a look. Daukaus has never been past the midway point of Round 2 in 7 career UFC bouts.

Rountree Jr. went the distance last time out, and he has ended up past the middle of the 2nd round in 3 of his past 4 outings. However, he is going to face a storm earlier than usual as Daukaus will make him eat plenty of punches early and often.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 50: Cory Sandhagen vs. Rob Font odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 50 odds and lines between Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a catchweight bout on the main card, Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 50 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 50: Sandhagen vs. Font odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Sandhagen (16-4-0) | Font (20-6-0)

Sandhagen was originally expected to face Umar Nurmagomedov, but the latter was forced out with a shoulder ailment. Font stepped in on short notice, and this main event fight will be a 140-pound catchweight bout instead.

Sandhagen lost in a title shot against Petr Yan at UFC 267 in Oct. 2021 and is trying to work his way back into a championship shot. He snuck past Marlon Vera via split decision last time out in March and picked up a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage victory over Song Yadong in a main event fight in mid-September of last year. This will be his 3rd straight main event fight, and 4th in the past 5 outings.

Font dropped Adrian Yanez in a 1st-round KO/TKO at UFC 287 last time out in April as he bounced back from pair of unanimous-decision losses to Vera and Jose Aldo. He has gone the distance in 3 of the past 4 fights, and 6 of the previous 8 bouts.

Font holds a slight 1.5-inch reach advantage while posting 6.46 significant strikes landed per minute to 5.98 for Sandhagen. He also has a slight takedown average advantage of 1.01-to-0.89, while Sandhagen is slightly better in the significant strikes accuracy percentage department at 48.90% to 48.04%.

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UFC on ESPN 50: Sandhagen vs. Font odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Sandhagen -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Font +275 (bet $100 to win $275)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

UFC on ESPN 50: Sandhagen vs. Font picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Backing Sandhagen (-350) on the 2-way line will cost you 3 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive and not nearly enough value. PASS, and let’s get a little more creative.

Instead, look to SANDHAGEN BY DECISION (+150) for a chance to multiply your initial investment by 1 1/2 times. The favorite has gone the distance in 3 of the past 4 fights, and the Song fight was likely going there too before the doctor’s stoppage.

Font has gone the distance in 3 of the past 4 fights and has needed the judges to declare a winner in 6 of his previous 8 bouts.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-150) is moderately priced, but gives you plenty of wiggle room in the event of a late stoppage in the 4th round or one in the 5th.

However, YES (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is perfectly fine at even money if you’re a little less conservative. Again, Sandhagen and Font have both involved the judges quite frequently lately.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 50: Dustin Jacoby vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 50 odds and lines between Dustin Jacoby and Kennedy Nzechukwu with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Dustin Jacoby and Kennedy Nzechukwu meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 50 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 50: Jacoby vs. Nzechukwu odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Jacoby (18-7-1) | Nzechukwu (12-3-0)

Jacoby is looking to turn things around after suffering a split-decision loss to Azamat Murzakov in mid-April and a unanimous-decision loss to Khalil Rountree Jr. in Oct. 2022. Jacoby had been 6-0-1 in his UFC career prior to dropping those 2 bouts. The American fighter has gone the distance on 4 occasions in his last 5 fights with a lone 1st Round KO/TKO over Da Woon Jung in July 2022 as his only finish.

Nzechukwu has posted 3 straight victories heading into this fight, including a pair of KO/TKO wins and a submission victory over Devin Clark last time in the octagon in early May. He has gone the distance just once in the previous 7 bouts.

Nzechukwu, a.k.a. “The African Savage”, takes the walk with an impressive 7-inch reach advantage. The southpaw also has a slight 0.69-to-0.40 takedown advantage and a 50.0% takedown accuracy percentage. Jacoby has a slight 5.44-to-4.89 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while managing a 49.87% accuracy percentage in that category.

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UFC on ESPN 50: Jacoby vs. Nzechukwu odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Jacoby +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Nzechukwu -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -140 | Under +110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -120)

UFC on ESPN 50: Jacoby vs. Nzechukwu picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The favorite NZECHUKWU (-165) has an astonishing 7-inch reach advantage, and he’ll use that to keep Jacoby at a distance until he decides otherwise. Jacoby simply won’t be able to get next to him, and the Nigerian-born fighter will dictate the tempo and pace of the fight.

In addition, METHOD OF VICTORY 5-WAY: NZECHUKWU BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+175) is a strong value. He has 3 straight finishes, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where Jacoby is able to get into Nzechukwu’s kitchen to start cooking.

If you want to take Nzechukwu by KO/TKO or DQ (+200) on the 7-way line, that pays slightly better, but it’s nice to have a little insurance in case he can tap Jacoby, and it isn’t that much more expensive.

I also like KO/TKO/DQ (+100) for the generic fight finish at even money, and you needn’t declare a winner on that prop.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+110) is a strong play at plus money. If this one ends as I think, and Nzechukwu gets it done with a stoppage, it will be well before the midway point of Round 3.

In addition, NO (-120): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is slightly more expensive but it’s also a good play if you’re a little more conservative.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 50: Aleksa Camur vs. Tanner Boser odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 50 odds and lines between Aleksa Camur and Tanner Boser with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Aleksa Camur and Tanner Boser meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 50 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 50: Camur vs. Boser odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Camur (6-2-0) | Boser (20-10-1)

Camur is looking to turn things around. The fighter from Bosnia-Herzegovina has dropped a pair of bouts via decision to William Knight and Nicolae Negumereanu after a successful debut at UFC 246 in a unanimous-decision win over Justin Ledet. This will be Camur’s first UFC fight since losing to Negumereanu in June 2021.

The veteran Boser is also on a 2-bout skid and is just 1-4 across his last 5 fights. His losses are a little more impressive, coming against fellow veterans Andrei Arlovski, Ion Cutelaba and Ilir Latifi, with a win by KO/TKO against Ovince Saint Preux. That schedule is quite the gauntlet, and the losses aren’t really much to be ashamed of for the Canadian heavyweight.

Boser, a.k.a. “The Bulldozer”, has never lost 3 straight fights at any point of his career. He takes the walk with 4.17 significant strikes landed per minute, landing 58.45% of those punches. If Camur has an advantage, it’s in the takedown game, where he has a 0.59 takedown average, while Boser is zeroed out.

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UFC on ESPN 50: Camur vs. Boser odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:57 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Camur +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Boser -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -125 | No -110)

UFC on ESPN 50: Camur vs. Boser picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The veteran BOSER (-160) still has plenty left in the tank at 32 years old, and he’ll ease by Camur using his veteran savvy and punching power. The Canadian has fought some of the best in the division and is much more battle-tested than the Bosnian fighter. Camur’s day is coming, but that day will not be Saturday.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-160) isn’t a bad wager, and is not priced out of line. Boster has gone the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights, while all 3 of Camur’s bouts at the UFC level have needed the judges to decide a victor.

In addition, YES (-125): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is an even better play based on the facts above. Neither of these fighters has been getting finishes lately.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 291: Alex Pereira vs. Jan Blachowicz odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 291 odds and lines between Alex Pereira vs. Jan Blachowicz with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Pereira vs. Blachowicz odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Pereira (7-2-0) | Blachowicz (29-9-1)

Pereira suffered a loss in the 2nd round against Israel Adesanya in a title fight at UFC 287 last time out in April. It was his 1st setback in 5 fights at the UFC level as he gave back the strap he took from “The Last Stylebender” in November 2022. Only 1 of Pereira’s 5 fights at the UFC level has gone the distance, and 3 of his 5 fights haven’t made it out of the 2nd round.

Blachowicz was involved in a draw at UFC 282 in a title bout with Magomed Ankalaev. He’ll have to bide his time for another title shot, after losing his belt to Glover Teixeira back at UFC 267 in October 2021. Just 2 of the past 6 fights for the Polish-born fighter have gone the distance.

Pereira holds a 1-inch advantage over the 40-year-old Blachowicz and has a 5.23-to-3.41 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He lands 66.12% of those strikes, to 57.70% for Pereira.

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UFC 291: Pereira vs. Blachowicz odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:32 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Blachowicz -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +200 | No -275)

UFC 291: Pereira vs. Blachowicz picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

PEREIRA (-110) has been dominant since joining the company, winning 4 of his 5 fights with 3 victories via KO/TKO.

Blachowicz has also been a title holder but the 40-year-old is just 1-1-1 across his last 3 fights. Since Feb. 2019, he’s had a loss via submission to Teixeira in a title fight and a KO/TKO setback to Thiago Santos.

Over/Under (O/U)

While Pereira has had plenty of finishes, he’ll get all he can handle from Blachowicz. Do not expect a quick finish. Take OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-150), as that should be a rather safe play.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but still want some action on the fight finish, roll with KO/TKO/DQ (-160) as the method of victory, regardless of the winner.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 291 odds and lines between Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout in the main event, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Poirier (29-7-0) | Gaethje (24-4-0)

Poirier posted a 3rd-round submission victory over Michael Chandler last time out in November at UFC 281 as he bounced back from a submission loss to Charles Oliveira in a title fight at UFC 269 in December 2021. He has had 4 consecutive finishes since last going the distance against Dan Hooker in June 2020.

Gaethje has alternated wins and losses in his past 5 fights. He lost a title bout to Oliveira at UFC 274 before bouncing back with a majority-decision win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286 in March. He has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts. However, those are the only 2 times he has gone the distance in his 10 fights at the UFC level.

These 2 fighters met in the main event in a UFC Fight Night in mid-April 2018, with Poirier picking up the KO/TKO win in the 4th round.

Poirier holds a 2-inch reach advantage but Gaethje has a 7.38-to-5.51 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Gaethje is also slightly more accurate with his strikes, landing 60.57% to 54.94% for Poirier. However, Poirier has an edge with a 1.39-to-0.13 takedown average advantage and he has a 1.24 submission average, too.

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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Poirier -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Gaethje +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The play is POIRIER (-150) straight up as the moderate favorite. While he has 2 losses in the past 6 fights those setbacks are both in title fights against Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, neither of whom are slouches.

The former champ has shown he can do it a number of ways, winning twice via KO/TKO, once by way of submission and another by unanimous decision across the past 5 fights. His versatility will help him in this rematch.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play as Gaethje has gone the distance in 2 of his last 3 outings. While I don’t think he gets the job done, I think he will make Poirier work very hard for the victory.

I believe this will be Poirier’s first fight to go the distance since he got by Hooker at UFC Fight Night in June 2020. I believe YES (+180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a huge value.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 291: Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 291 odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Lewis (26-11-0) | Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1)

Lewis takes the walk on a 3-bout losing skid. That includes a pair of 1st-round setbacks against Serghei Spivac in February and Sergei Pavlovich last July. Win or lose, “The Black Beast” has had 7 consecutive fights finish inside the distance, with 3 wins via KO/TKO, 3 losses via KO/TKO and a loss by way of submission.

Rogerio de Lima has picked up victories in each of the past 2 outings, including a unanimous-decision win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta last time out in late April. He has gone the distance in 3 of his previous 5 outings.

Lewis has a 4-inch reach advantage, but Rogerio de Lima holds a 3.62-to-2.54 significant strikes landed per minute edge and is much more accurate on those strikes at 66.78% to just 52.57% for Lewis. In addition, Rogerio de Lima has managed a 1.35 takedown average to just 0.59 for Lewis, and he has a 47.62% takedown accuracy percentage to only 28.13%.

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UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Rogerio de Lima -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +150 | Under -200)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)

UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rogerio de Lima (-225) should add to the woes of Lewis (+185), who has suffered a pair of setbacks in the 1st round while losing 3 fights in a row.

The Brazilian fighter has been much more dependable lately, picking up 4 wins in the past 5 outings. However, you can’t risk more than 2 times your potential return.

Take ROGERIO DE LIMA IN ROUND 1 (+100) at even money instead of the outright play on him to just record the victory. You can also play ROGERIO DE LIMA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (+125) for a little more value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Under 1.5 Rounds (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive, and you can’t play No (-700): Fight to go the distance, as that’s way more costly.

AVOID, and simply focus on the round betting and method instead.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Nathaniel Wood and Andre Fili meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at O2 Arena in London, England. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Wood vs. Fili odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at noon ET and the main card is on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Wood (19-5-0) | Fili (22-9-0)

Wood takes the walk looking for a 3rd consecutive victory. He has topped Charles Jourdain and Charles Rosa in the past 2 fights, both via unanimous decision. Each of his last 4 outings has gone the distance, and he is 3-1 via unanimous decision during the span.

Wood’s last stoppage came in a 3rd round KO/TKO loss to John Dodson in February 2020. His last win inside the distance was a submission victory over Jose Quinonez in March 2019.

Fili bounced back with a split-decision victory over Bill Alego in September after suffering a 41-second knockout loss to Joanderson Brito in April 2022. He has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 bouts and 10 of the previous 13 outings.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Wood vs. Fili odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:56 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Wood -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Fili +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +145)

UFC Fight Night 224: Wood vs. Fili picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

This is a solid venue for the Englishman Wood (-225) as he fights on his home soil. However, it isn’t a great idea to lay more than 2 times your potential return. In addition, Fili (+175) is quite dangerous, as he holds a 5-inch reach advantage and will be able to keep Wood at a distance while picking and choosing his spots to get close to the Briton.

I still expect Wood to win, but look for METHOD OF VICTORY 7-WAY: WOOD BY DECISION (+100) at even money to be the best play on the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is just a little too expensive for my liking as you have to lay twice your potential return, and that’s just too much risk and not enough reward, even if both of these fights have a penchant for having their bouts decided by the judges more often than not.

AVOID, and focus on the method of victory instead.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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