Winners and losers from Patriots’ gusty win over the Bills in Week 16

Tom Brady finally started to get some momentum in the passing game.

Here are the winners and losers from the New England Patriots’ 24-17 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 at Gillette Stadium on Saturday.

The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, and will spend Week 17 attempting to hold off the Miami Dolphins, so that New England can retain their No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.

Winner: Tom Brady, QB

Brady led a 17-play, 81-yard drive, which spanned over 8 minutes and 58 seconds. The drive started on that 1-yard line. While the drive concluded with a field goal, it was representative of Brady’s best self in 2019. He spread the ball around, but favored Julian Edelman. The quarterback’s patience and accuracy were New England’s biggest asset. The offense was a flashback to what they did best in the early 2000s: death with a thousand incisions — which requires great precision.

That hasn’t come together in previous games — it did on Saturday night. Brady finished 26 of 33 for 271 yards and one touchdown.

Loser (until he proved a winner): Rex Burkhead, RB

His fumble on the Patriots’ opening drive felt like a significant swing in points. The Bills turned around and scored on a field goal. But New England was moving the ball well, and looked poised to score at least three points. The turnover was a momentum changer.

Then the script flipped completely on Burkhead.

He was reliable after that, with five carries for 20 yards and a touchdown with four catches for 77 yards on the game. He and the Patriots offensive line did well running screen passes, which helped him finish with the most receiving yards for New England. But Burkhead’s most impressive play of the game came on 1-yarder. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander hammered Burkhead, who somehow stayed upright and managed to make his way into the end zone.

3 keys for the Patriots to beat the Bills in Week 16

Unleash Rex Burkhead.

The New England Patriots (11-3) find themselves in an important battle with the Buffalo Bills (10-4), in which a New England win would clinch an 11th consecutive AFC East title on Saturday. Here are three keys for a Patriots victory.

1. Unleash Rex Burkhead

Although he’s been kept on the bench for various streaks over his three-year tenure with the Patriots, Rex Bulkhead is often utilized in the biggest of games, even if it’s sparingly, for strategic reasons.

Burkhead totaled 64 yards on just three touches in Super Bowl LII and scored twice on 12 carries in last year’s AFC Championship Game win in Kansas City.

With the obviousness of how New England utilizes Sony Michel and James White, it may be time for the Patriots to turn to Burkhead as its feature back on Saturday.

Running Burkhead out of ’11’ personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) would be beneficial if New England decides to run a hurry-up offense, because Burkhead can easily split out wide in a shotgun spread formation, as well as playing scatback next to Tom Brady in additional shotgun personnel.

2. Take advantage of any red zone trips

By now, we know what this Patriots offense is. Considering the Bills’ defense is one of the the league’s premier units, the Patriots will again have trouble moving the ball.

But when Brady does lead the Patriots offense into the red zone — or when the defense or special teams gets them there — New England will have to capitalize on the few (probably) times they make it that far into Buffalo territory.

This is where they should continue to utilize first-round rookie N’Keal Harry, and his 6-foot-4 frame, to box out defenders.

3. Keep up defensive excellence

The Bills offense has improved since New England’s Week 4 win in Buffalo, and barring a repeat of events, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen should finish the game.

But the Patriots should be able to contain the Bills’ offensive attack with controlled aggression and relentlessness. The home crowd will help, too.

Still, this will be tougher with slot cornerback Jonathan Jones unavailable to check Bills slot receiver — and once offseason target acquisition by the Patriots — Cole Beasley.

But Bill Belichick will scheme something up. He always does.

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5 takeaways from Patriots’ bounce-back victory against Bengals

Here are five takeaways from the Patriots’ 34-13 victory against the Bengals.

The New England Patriots got a much-needed victory in Week 15 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

There are still glaring vulnerabilities throughout the unit, but they’ve done enough to clinch the playoffs and enter the final weeks of the season with an 11-3 record. New England’s scary-good secondary showed why they’re among the best in the league, and the offense did just enough against the Bengals to get the job done — this has been the recurring theme all season.

Needless to say, the Bengals are now 1-13 and this isn’t a victory to boast about. The Patriots will see the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 and the Miami Dolphins during the final week of the season. They’ll have to play much better than they have in the past few weeks, but this game against the Bengals was a solid start.

Here are five takeaways from the game.

Stephon Gilmore is New England’s MVP this season

The Patriots have a league-high 25 interceptions this season and Stephon Gilmore is responsible for six of them.

He is undoubtedly the NFL’s best cornerback right now and he continues to make a case for Defensive Player of the Year. He added on to that case against the Bengals after recording two interceptions — one resulting in a pick-six. Gilmore told reporters after the game that he should’ve had three, maybe four interceptions.

Gilmore leads New England’s secondary and he’s the reason that they feel so comfortable playing man defense. He has changed the dynamic of this team, and the Patriots will need his continued excellence if they want to make a deep playoff run.

Winners and losers from Patriots’ game vs. Bengals in Week 15

The Patriots’ defense makes a win happen.

Here are the winners and losers from the New England Patriots’ game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15 at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday.

Winner: Stephon Gilmore, CB

Don’t throw at Gilmore. Bad things happen for a quarterback.

The Patriots cornerback, who is securing his claim as the best in the NFL, logged two interceptions during Sunday’s win. His first came on a third down, where Gilmore looked like the intended target with an impressive back-shoulder, one-handed catch.

When Andy Dalton next targeted Gilmore, the cornerback intercepted the ball and returned it for a touchdown. That provided a priceless stat from Pro Football Focus’ George Chahrouri.

Thats a jaw-dropping figure with NFL rules favoring quarterbacks and receivers more than they ever have.

Cornerback J.C. Jackson also managed two interceptions in this game.

Loser: Tom Brady, QB

He wasn’t sharp with 15 completions on 29 attempts for 128 yards and two touchdowns. A huge portion of his struggles came under pressure. Brady was pressured on nine of his first 18 drop-backs. That’s probably why Brady resorted to targeting running backs on six of his 15 completions. He didn’t have much time and needed a target who could get open quickly.

Normally, that’s Julian Edelman, but he was clearly playing through pain after dealing with a knee and shoulder issue in practice this week.

But Brady can’t blame the lack of production on his pass-catchers. (Nor would he.) He had plenty of errors. At the end of the first half when the score was still close, Brady missed on a throw to a wide open Mohamed Sanu, who had created separation for a potential touchdown in the end zone. Brady also threw the ball at running back Sony Michel’s knees on a second-half red zone drive. Michel should have hauled it in, but if Brady had hit Michel in the chest, it would have surely been a touchdown. (Brady found N’Keal Harry for a touchdown on the following play.)

Even Brady and Edelman seemed off, with the quarterback putting the ball just beyond receiver’s catch radius. Edelman finished with five targets and two receptions for six yards.

Winner: N’Keal Harry, WR

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels kept his promise. He told reporters he wanted to get N’Keal Harry more involved in the offense. And McDaniels and Tom Brady did just that.

It wasn’t a huge day for Harry. But there were a handful of positive signs, including his touchdown catch in the second half.

It started in the first quarter, with Harry taking a jet sweep. It was an easy solution to get the rookie receiver the ball in his hands. Maybe he’s struggling with his route assignments — this helps solve that problem. (He’s not even running a route.) But when Harry was working downfield, he looked improved. He made an outrageously impressive diving catch on a play which was whistled dead because of an offsides penalty. It didn’t count, but perhaps it counted to Brady, who then targeted Harry for a first down on the following play.

Harry finished with two receptions for 15 yards and a touchdown with two carries for 22 yards. Maybe it’s rough that it’s considered a good game for a first-rounder. But it is an improvement. If he continues to develop, he could prove a tremendous asset in the postseason.

Loser: Jonathan Jones, CB

In yet another week, the Patriots’ opponent has elected to go after Jones. At least in the first quarter, he didn’t give them a reason not to. The Bengals targeted Cethan Carter in the red zone, and he ran easily past Jones, who badly missed the tackle in the open field. Touchdown.

He later left the game with an injury. Even when he’s getting targeted, he’s a crucial member of their defense. He would be a big loss.

Winner: Danny Shelton, DT

The Patriots defense needed to reset the tone. Their couldn’t defend the run. They couldn’t defend the pass. And they looked sleepy heading into their Week 15 matchup in Cincy.

Defensive tackle Danny Shelton gave the Patriots defense some momentum, however. During the second quarter, the Bengals tried and failed to convert a 4th-and-inches when Shelton pummeled guard Michael Jordan, and the defensive tackle penetrated the backfield to stuff Joe Mixon for a loss.

Loser: Jessie Bates III, S, Bengals

He’s the guy that Rex Burkhead juked to Jupiter on this 33-yard touchdown run. Burkhead delivered a beautiful shake — and bake. The offensive line set up the run to perfection. It may be Belichick’s favorite offensive play of the game– the execution was ideal.

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Patriots vs. Bengals: Betting odds, analysis and prediction

The slumping New England Patriots get a break in their schedule on Sunday when facing the worst team in football in the Cincinnati Bengals.

The New England Patriots face one of their final “get right” opponents of the season on Sunday when traveling to Ohio for a head-to-head meeting with the Cincinnati Bengals.

Hope is hanging by a thread as the struggling Patriots offense prepares to step onto the field against the worst team in football. One can only imagine the levels of frustration that would overcome quarterback Tom Brady if the team still can’t move the ball against the Bengals.

He might put a down payment on a house in Los Angeles or Nashville first thing on Monday morning.

There is a bit of drama leading into this game with the Patriots’ camera crew being caught filming the Bengals’ sideline during their road game against the Cleveland Browns last week.

According to the Patriots, the camera crew unknowingly broke league rules while filming a team scout for a “Do Your Job” video segment that was being put up on the team’s official website. The NFL is investigating the matter even though it was reported that they are likely to believe the Patriots after watching the video tape. It only makes sense that Spygate allegations would pop up when the Patriots were on to Cincinnati.

It’s like the team has stepped into a time machine to reimagine their worst nightmares. The Patriots will enter Sunday’s game as -9.5 favorites with the under/over being 40.5 points.

Why the Patriots will win

This will be the week when the Patriots unleash rookie receiver N’Keal Harry. Do they really have any other choice?

Brady is a Julian Edelman injury away from one of the Patriots’ ball boys being promoted to the active roster. Owner Robert Kraft has seemingly dug in on his decision not to attempt to bring back all-world receiver Antonio Brown, even if it means sitting and watching the 2019 season go up in flames. So Brady and Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have to buy into Harry whether they’re ready to or not.

They won’t find a better test subject than the Bengals’ anemic defense that ranks second-worst in the NFL in yards per game (399.5). Perhaps even running back Sony Michel can find his way out of the doghouse with the Bengals allowing an average 156.7 rushing yards to opposing offenses. It doesn’t get any easier than this for Brady and company.

There is also the mere thought of Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton going against that vaunted Patriots defense. Joe Mixon is experiencing somewhat of a resurgence at running back, but there’s no chance I’d trust Dalton throwing into the teeth of the best secondary in the league. The veteran quarterback has thrown nearly as many interceptions as he has touchdowns this season.

Why the Bengals will win

A dead clock is right twice in a day.

That alone means there’s hope for the Bengals against the slumping Patriots. It doesn’t have to look pretty offensively for Dalton as long as the Bengals defense does its part in slowing down Brady. There have been enough games in the season to see that the Patriots aren’t a great team offensively.

The offensive line has been too inconsistent, and the team can’t run the ball as effectively as they were late in 2018. Brady had more rushing yards than Michel did against the Chiefs.

There are also the issues with receivers struggling to create separation and running the expected routes. Brady is essentially down to Edelman and running back James White as his only trustworthy receivers.

That dumbs things down significantly for Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. As long as Edelman is doubled and White is taken into consideration, the Patriots are going to continue to have trouble moving the ball. It hasn’t all been sugar and rainbows for Dalton, but he deserves better than being treated like the red-headed stepchild. It isn’t his fault the Bengals have been living proof of incompetency over the years.

Trends

Via Covers.com

  • Patriots are 47-23 ATS in their last 70 games overall.
  • Patriots are 47-22-1 ATS in their last 70 games following a straight up loss.
  • Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.

Prediction

The smart pick is the Chiefs and the under on Sunday.

The Bengals were able to pile up 451 yards last week against the Browns, but their inability to finish drives with touchdowns cost them the game. They were 1-of-5 in redzone attempts on offense. Even with the Patriots offense struggling, opposing teams still need 20-plus points to beat them. I’m not sure the Bengals have it in them to find that sort of offensive success against coach Bill Belichick’s defense.

It doesn’t help matters that the Bengals are the third-worst team in turnover margin. Forget about The Boogeymen. The Patriots defense has enough Aladdins to be called the “Team of Thieves” with the ridiculous amount of times they’ve pickpocketed turnovers.

Yet, this game truly feels like the offensive unveiling Patriots fans have waited to see. They’ll finally be able to run the ball when facing the worst rushing defense in the league, and McDaniels’ decision to draw up more players for Harry will pay off. There will be no pats on the back for beating up on the worst team in football, but the Patriots could draw the confidence needed for another deep playoff run.

I’m laying the points on Sunday.

 

 

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4 thoughts and 4 questions on the Patriots’ videotaping scandal

Diving into what we know and what we don’t.

The New England Patriots are embroiled in a videotaping scandal — again.

Spygate 2.0 seems to have many of the same components of the first episode in 2007, with the Patriots getting accused of videotaping an opponent’s sideline. In this case, the Bengals are the accuser. (In 2007, it was the Jets.) A Cincinnati scout saw a member of the Patriots.com video team filming the Bengals’ sideline during a game against the Browns in Week 14, according to multiple reports. That Bengals staffer notified the NFL, which took the video recording and launched an investigation into the Patriots’ motives.

New England has released a statement saying it intended to use that footage as B-roll for a digital series called “Do You Job,” which documents the day-to-day work of employees in the scouting, training and dietary departments of the organization. In this case, the production team was showing the work of an advance scout, who is tasked with scouting the Patriots’ upcoming opponent, which was, in this case, the Bengals. New England has admitted to violating league rules, and will “accept full responsibility for the actions of our production crew.”

Here are some initial thoughts and lingering questions.

1. Bill Belichick is keeping himself as far from this as possible.

The Patriots coach immediately deferred responsibility to the production team. Belichick has stated and restated that he has no oversight and knowledge of the Patriots.com video team. He is disconnected from their process. It feels a little bit like when he deferred responsibility onto Tom Brady during Deflategate: “Tom’s personal preferences on his footballs are something that he can talk about in much better detail and information than I could possibly provide.” The reason is obvious: Belichick wants nothing to do with this scandal. He wears a scarlet letter for Spygate — he has no interest in muddying his legacy any further.

So if he genuinely had no involvement, he wants to make sure everyone knows. The Patriots have admitted to breaking rules, but he wants to make it clear: he didn’t break the rules.

2. Did he have knowledge of the videotaping?

It’s possible the NFL will launch a lengthy investigation into emails and texts to see if there was any dialogue between the Patriots staff and the Patriots.com staff about this video recording prior to the rule-breaking. That could help determine Belichick’s guilt or innocence.

3. The situation feels almost exactly like what happened in 2007.

Here’s a passage from an ESPN expose that dove into the Patriots’ methodology from the Spygate scandal. It discussed the process: A video team would tape the upcoming opponent’s sideline while an advance scout would make notes about hand signals. Then, director of football research Ernie Adams would break down the notes and the illegal footage. They’d use that in preparation for the game. But there’s more from ESPN:

“During games, Walsh later told investigators, the Patriots’ videographers were told to look like media members, to tape over their team logos or turn their sweatshirt inside out, to wear credentials that said Patriots TV or Kraft Productions. The videographers also were provided with excuses for what to tell NFL security if asked what they were doing: Tell them you’re filming the quarterbacks. Or the kickers. Or footage for a team show.”

This is almost exactly the alibi the Patriots are using in this situation. So while they were interviewing the advance scout before the game for their “Do Your Job” show, according to ESPN’s Dianna Russini, they also filmed the sideline. Still, this passage — written in 2015 — feels damning for New England.

4. Who are these members of the production team?

The Patriots’ statement said the team included a group of contract employees. It is feasible that those part-timers did not know the rules against taping an opponents’ sideline. With that ignorance, they could have filmed the sideline to use as B-roll to show what the advance scout is seeing. That doesn’t absolve the production team — and, by extension, the Patriots — from wrongdoing. Though, it’s possible it was an accident.

Speaking of what the advance scout is seeing…

5. Why didn’t the scout stop the recording? How did they miss this mistake?

The Patriots scouts are, without a doubt, well-versed in the NFL’s rules on video recordings. This is a franchise which has to be careful of rule-breaking, because of their legacy with Spygate and Deflategate.

How is it that the scout didn’t stop the camera crew from recording the field? A very important note: The recording is eight minutes long, according to The Athletic. (That seems like a lengthy recording for B-roll. It also seems like long enough for the scout to take notice, depending on how close they were to the production team.) It’s possible the scout was busy with his or her job. It’s possible the camera crew moved to a different part of the press box.

But, of course, even if the scout had no way of knowing the camera crew would film the sideline, it is the Patriots’ responsibility to inform that crew of what they can and cannot tape.

6. Still, the NFL is ready to give the Patriots the benefit of the doubt, per NFL Network.

It seems the NFL wants to believe New England, according to NFL Network Ian Rapoport. What’s more, the NFL is at a point where few coaches send sideline signals. Communication happens over headsets, which is why coaches are always seen putting their play sheet in front of their mouths.

7. The Patriots clearly deserve a punishment.

They broke league rules, whether intentionally or accidentally. They’ve admitted to breaking rules. The NFL will punish the Patriots for what they did.

8. But what will that punishment be?

It all depends upon our second point in this article: Did Belichick know? If he had knowledge of the process or even directed its execution, the Patriots could face a significant punishment, involving suspensions, forfeiture of draft picks and fines. Here’s a look at the past punishments.

  • For Spygate: The NFL fined Belichick $500,000. The Patriots paid $250,000 in fines. And New England lost its first-round selection in the 2008 NFL Draft.
  • For Deflategate: The NFL fined the Patriots $1 million. New England had to forfeit its first-round pick in the 2016 NFL draft as well as its fourth-round pick in the 2017 NFL draft. Tom Brady served a four-game suspension.

If the Patriots knowingly broke the rules, they are likely to face a punishment that exceeds both of those levied in prior scandals. If Belichick did not know about this — as he says — then the Patriots are likely looking at a fine.

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AFC playoff picture: How Patriots’ loss to Chiefs impacts seeding in Week 14

The Chiefs are now nipping at the Patriots’ heels in the playoff standings.

The New England Patriots may have hated the Baltimore Ravens for delivering a tough loss in Week 9. But they were surely grateful for what the Ravens did to the Bills on Sunday in Week 14. Baltimore beat Buffalo on the same day that New England lost to the Kansas City Chiefs. That helped the Patriots retain a one-game lead over the Bills in the playoff seeding.

When the Patriots and Bills were on the schedule in Week 16, it was not a game which many circled as having tremendous seeding implications. But the Bills could take New England’s No. 2 seed if Buffalo wins. (The Bills would also have to win the tie-breaker factors, because they’d be 1-1 against the Patriots.) Even if the Patriots don’t lose the tiebreaker to the Bills, they could get overtaken by the Chiefs, who could earn a first-round bye with a Patriots’ loss and an undefeated finish.

Here’s a look at the seeding after 14 weeks.

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
4.
Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Buffalo 
Bills (9-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

New England still controls where it will finish in the standings. If they win @ Cincinnati, vs. the Bills and vs. the Dolphins, then the Patriots will finish the season as the No. 2 seed with a first-round bye. But a win against Buffalo — and perhaps even Miami — looks much more challenging than originally estimated. With New England’s offense struggling, it desperately needs a rebound game against an unimpressive Bengals team. Past that, the Patriots’ supposedly easy path to a top playoff seed seems like a false narrative.

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5 takeaways from the Patriots’ crushing loss to the Chiefs

The New England Patriots lost a consecutive game in controversial fashion to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

An opportunity to upend the Kansas City Chiefs and hold off a 2019 obituary eluded the New England Patriots on Sunday. Foxborough served as the backdrop for the Patriots’ second consecutive loss in a game that pretty much assured the road to the Super Bowl will be going through Baltimore.

Sound the death knell as every talking head in America writes off the Patriots’ chances in the playoffs.

But don’t expect a Bill Belichick-coached team to get wrapped up in the sensationalism that is to come. It’s on to Cincinnati for the Patriots. Here are five takeaways from their 23-16 loss to the Chiefs.

Officiating was god-awful

Jerome Boger’s officiating crew won’t be invited to any Boston cookouts in the near future.

You hate to put the blame on the referees for the outcome of a game, but Boger’s crew has to wear the clown mask after Sunday’s circus. There were too many blatantly blown calls that robbed the Patriots of at least two touchdowns.

The first was on a potential scoop and score from Patriots All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore off a fumble from Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Instead of allowing the play to finish, the officials blew the play dead and ruled Kelce down by contact, forcing Belichick to throw out a challenge flag to get the call overturned.

Not only did Belichick lose a challenge, but the Patriots also lost a touchdown.

Then there was the touchdown by Patriots receiver N’Keal Harry that was ultimately called back because an official believed he stepped out of bounds. Even Joe Blow in the nosebleed section with binoculars could clearly see Harry stayed in-bounds on the play.

Of course, the Patriots ran out of challenges trying to correct previous mistakes made by the officiating crew—the Kelce fumble and a blown ball placement that helped the Chiefs convert a first down.

It was easily one of the worst officiated games of the season. ESPN’s Mike Reiss had a pool report of Boger’s explanation on how his crew viewed the Harry play.

Boger missed on the explanation as bad as the referees missed on the no-touchdown call. It’s no excuse in that play not being reviewed, especially after the Patriots were hosed on their challenges from previous poor calls.

There was also the obvious pass interference that ruined a pivotal drive and took away what would have been Phillip Dorsett’s only catch of the game. It was simply a bad night all-around.

Winners and losers from Patriots’ heart-breaking loss to Chiefs in Week 14

Tom Brady and Julian Edelman couldn’t pull off the comeback.

Here are the winners and losers from the New England Patriots’ tough 23-16 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium on Sunday in Week 14. New England managed one final drive into the red zone with a minute left in the game. But the effort to tie the game came up short on the 4-yard line with quarterback Tom Brady throwing incomplete to Julian Edelman on fourth down. The misfire essentially ended the game.

Winner: Julian Edelman, WR

On an ugly offensive night, Edelman was consistent, fiery and productive. Basically, he was everything that the rest of his skill players weren’t. While the rest of the pass-catchers not named James White or Edelman managed 82 yards, Edelman had eight catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. By the end of the first half, he had four catches for 70 yards.

The one downside for Edelman’s night was that he couldn’t haul in his final target of the game on a fourth-and-goal, which would have tied the score in the fourth quarter. Instead, the Bashaud Breeland reached over for a pass breakup, and essentially ended the game.

Loser: Tom Brady, QB

It was another mixed performance for Brady. Again, he had moments of brilliance that went with obvious errors. The most glaring issue, his interception, came on a first-and-10 on the 25-yard line. It was the first play of the team’s drive, and set a poor tone that would carry through the next two quarters.

Brady didn’t anticipate cornerback Bashaud Breeland cheating off coverage of receiver Julian Edelman. So when Brady saw tight end Matt LaCosse with significant separation, the quarterback zipped the ball in that direction. But Breeland closed on the ball and managed a takeaway.

Brady put together a solid fourth quarter, and nearly tied the game. But his struggles were a large reason why New England fell into a quick hole. The Patriots quarterback isn’t to blame for all of the offense’s problems. His supporting cast, past Edelman, has yet to step up. This has been the story for weeks. In a sense, that’s also why Brady is a “loser.” His supporting personnel hasn’t been good enough. His final is a good example. He needed better protection, so he could step into his throw and get it over Breeland. But Brady lacked the arm strength, in part due to his poor protection.

Patriots vs. Chiefs: Betting odds, analysis and prediction

An opportunity to bury the doubt is on the line for the New England Patriots in Sunday’s heavyweight showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Patrick Mahomes Show comes rolling into town at a time when the rest of the world is ready to write the obituary of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. A heavyweight showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday represents a chance to put all of the doom and gloom talk to rest.

It’s a chance for the Patriots to shift the raging locomotive into the highest gear and speed down the tracks into the playoffs.

The vaunted defense had no answers for the Houston Texans and quarterback Deshaun Watson a week ago. Things will get infinitely more difficult when attempting to ground the high-flying Chiefs offense led by one of the greatest young quarterbacks in NFL history.

Not to mention the inevitable Yoda vs. Yoda coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Andy Reid.

The Chiefs have won their last two consecutive games, including a blistering 40-9 victory over the Oakland Raiders. Watson earned his first win over Brady last week. Will it be Mahomes’ turn on Sunday? The Patriots will enter the game at -3 favorites with the over/under being 49 points.

Why you should pick the Patriots

I’ve seen this story before.

The superhuman Patriots are suddenly reduced to vulnerable and breakable the week after a loss. They’re the Elijah Price team of the NFL. Of course, the story usually ends with them blowing out a really good team and putting the rest of the league on notice.

Many of the issues for the Patriots offense have been mostly based on poor technique and timing. Receivers aren’t running good routes, and Brady is stuck playing developmental coach at a time when he’s supposed to be competing. It’s after Thanksgiving and real football has started.

Even Phillip Dorsett, a veteran receiver in his third season with the Patriots, seemed as lost as rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers last week.

But there is hope for the team to hit its stride late in 2019.

Meyers would have neared 100 receiving yards and probably caught a touchdown pass against the Texans if penalties and a bad route didn’t get in the way. Harry will be on the field for his fourth game with the team, and Dorsett has obviously been around long enough to know what he needs to clean up in Week 14. Don’t sleep on the positives in the maelstrom of negativity.

The offensive line showing some fight last week means Brady should have time to throw against a vulnerable Chiefs defense he managed to carve up on two separate occasions last season.

On the other side of the ball, Belichick was able to slow down Mahomes in the first-half of the AFC Championship. You can rest assured he’ll enter Sunday’s game with some unique wrinkle to throw the young quarterback off guard. The Patriots have the personnel to match-up on the backend of their defense. Without question, this will be the best secondary the Chiefs have faced all season.

Why you should pick the Chiefs

We’re in Week 14 and talking about receivers not being on the same page with the quarterback. That would signal the death knell for any other team in the league but the Patriots. Yet, there’s always the tendency to give them the benefit of the doubt with Brady behind center and Belichick on the sideline.

But these aren’t the same Patriots anymore.

Brady appears to be frustrated with more than just football at this point, and he has arguably his worst cast of receiving talent in his professional career. If the Chiefs can take away Patriots receiver Julian Edelman and running back James White in the passing game, it will likely be another long afternoon for Brady and company.

Seeing the ease at which Watson was able to counter the Patriots beloved zero blitz is also a bad sign heading into a game against Mahomes and the Chiefs’ speedy receivers. Not even Belichick has the courage to bring the house with the human blur, Tyreek Hill, flanked out wide.

The Patriots defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season, and no one is better than dialing up big plays from defensive breakdowns than Mahomes. He’s always a threat to make a play regardless of the down and distance.

Trends

Via Covers.com:

  • Chiefs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games against teams in the AFC.
  • Chiefs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team with a winning record at home.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in the month of December.

Prediction

The smart pick is the Chiefs and the over on Sunday.

Rob Gronkowski will be calling the game as a Fox Sports analyst, and Antonio Brown will be somewhere tweeting about it. Help isn’t coming for Brady and the offense.

They’ll need plenty of help when attempting to keep pace with a Chiefs offense that can pile up points at the snap of a finger. It would take a virtuoso performance the likes of what we saw from the Patriots defense at Super Bowl LIII to stop Mahomes. Reid’s play-calling is too good, and Mahomes is too dangerous with the myriad of offensive weapons at his disposal.

If the Patriots offense couldn’t answer the bell against the depleted Texans defense, it’s hard to envision them hitting the switch against a Chiefs unit that seems to be ascending at the right time. It will be more of the same on Sunday. The running game will hardly be a factor, and a screaming Brady will continue to sink when the Chiefs defense set their sights on Edelman and White.

I’m taking the Chiefs and the points.

 

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