Category: NFL Coaching Change with fantasy football impact

2021 NFL coaching changes: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles bring in Nick Sirianni as the new head coach

The Eagles parted ways with head coach Doug Pederson after five seasons that saw him win the 2018  Super Bowl and then lose in the playoffs the next two years with 9-7 records. For 2020, it all imploded with the Eagles ending 4-11-1. Pederson was initially expected back but after a discussion with owner Jeffrey Lurie, the Eagles threw in the towel on his ability to fix the offense that tumbled to only 26th in scoring and 28th in passing yards.

Lurie interviewed ten different men for the head coach opening and opted for the 39-year-old offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni from the Colts. His NFL career started in 2009 with the Chiefs, where he held numerous jobs for four seasons and then went to the Chargers for seven years coaching quarterbacks and wide receivers. For the last three, he’s been the offensive coordinator for the Colts and Frank Reich. This is his first time as a head coach on any level.

Sirianni lands in Philadelphia where he’ll install his offense with the help of new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. The ex-Chargers offensive coordinator of the last two seasons spent all but one NFL season with the Bolts  and is only 35-years-old. He worked alongside with Sirianni for four seasons in San Diego/Los Angeles. This will be Sirianni’s offense.

Jonathan Gannon lands as the new defensive coordinator having last coached cornerbacks for the Colts for the last three seasons. Gannon served as a position coach on the defense with the Falcons (2007), Titans (2012-2013), and Vikings (2014-2017). He also spent two years as a college scout. This is a young, vibrant cast of coaches that already have ties with Sirianni when he was with either the Colts or the Chargers.

The new regime got off to an… awkward… start when Sirianni gave his first press conference. That could have gone better. He was obviously nervous, rambled at times and occasionally seemed to randomly attach strings of football buzzwords. After he wins a couple of games, that media stumble will be little remembered.

Sirianni inherits a team with a quarterback “situation”, an offensive line crushed by injuries last year and an offense that became dysfunctional and ineffective. He’s there to bring the team back together and get them to care about each other again. The youthful and energetic coaching staff should help to get the team feeling connected and unified again. He’ll run the offense and call the plays in addition to his head coaching duties.

Coaching tendencies

Head coach Nick Sirianni – The positive for fantasy football is that Sirianni, and  OC Shane Steichen, will seek to maximize their players’ strengths and talents rather than force them to fit a particular system. Sirianni was a hot head coaching candidate because of his intelligence, motivation skills, and agility to adapt the scheme to the players. That was evident when his last three seasons in Indianapolis saw him with three different starting quarterbacks – Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, and Philip Rivers.

In each of the two seasons, his offense ranked No. 4 in rushing attempts. They only completed 70 passes to running backs in 2019 with Brissett needing blocking help but then completed 114 to the position last year for the No. 3 rank in the NFL. The addition of Jonathan Taylor created the No. 6 fantasy back but his offenses will produce solid fantasy points from the backfield in whatever way that has to happen.

The success of the passing game varied in his three seasons with three different quarterbacks. With Luck under center, the Colts threw 643 passes (No. 2) and he notched 39 touchdowns (No. 2) in 2018. The stats dropped in 2019 when Luck retired and Brissett took over. Then Rivers delivered mostly average production in 2020. All three had different ratios of run-to-pass, length-of-completion, and every other quarterback measurable.

Again – this is ideal for fantasy football because the best players get the ball. There’s far less head-scratching coaching decisions involving play calling and player usage. 

Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon – This is the first time as a defensive coordinator though Sirianni is comfortable with that given that the offense remains under the direction of the head coach. But what Gannon brings to the defense is hard to forecast since he’s never schemed for an entire defense before and spent most his career with defensive backs while playing under DC Jim Rhodes in Indy and George Edwards at the Vikings.

Gannon helped to develop Xavier Rhodes remain one of the premier cornerbacks when he was at  the Vikings and later revived his career at the Colts. The expectation is that Gannon primarily imports the Schwartz defense from the Colts, but will have a free hand to shape and mold it as he sees fit. That means a 4-3 base and a varying coverage between man and zone depending on the opponent. That means the defense will evolve as they match personnel and Gannon gains experience.

The concern is that Gannon hasn’t done this before and Sirianni has the entire team on his plate while also running the offense. Gannon is considered very intelligent and was one of the desirable candidates for defensive coordinator in the NFL this offseason. There’s just little to go on with the young, inexperienced coordinator. Given the youthful and less-experienced state of the coaching staff, that points to a total rebuild and a move meant to address the long-term over just this season.

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Personnel changes

It is somewhat ironic that the Eagles new head coach and defensive coordinator come from the Colts, since that’s where they sent Carson Wentz.  Jalen Hurts is the unquestioned starting quarterback. The coaching change is favorable for Hurts since Sirianni has always adjusted the offense to the talent under center. Hurts will continue to offer a dual threat for the Eagles as a passer and rusher but the offense will be new and there should be new players to involve as well.

Miles Sanders returns for his third season and still has yet to break 867 rushing yards but he’s easily the best back of the bunch. Zach Ertz enters the final year of his contract but may be traded or just released. He fell off the map during the Eagle’s dramatic decline in 2020. Dallas Goedert handle the primary receiving role with Ertz gone.

DeSean Jackson was released and Alshon Jeffery is expected to join him. First-round pick Jalen Reagor made little mark with only 396  yards on 31 catches and one score. Greg Ward actually led the wideouts with 40 catches so the receiving corps has to be a priority. The passing production fell off with Carson Wentz in decline but improved a bit with the abbreviated play from Hurts.

Going into the draft, the Eagles own the 1.06, 2.05, 3.06, and 3.20 over the first two days. That first-round pick could grab a top wideout or cornerback, depending on where the rebuild starts.

The Eagles will add receiving help in the draft at the least, and that will be for a player with year-one expectations of contributing.

Fantasy football takeaway

This is another team that will be installing all-new schemes on offense and defense, using a very young set of coaches. Add in Jalen Hurts getting his first full season as a starter and the Eagles offense will be inconsistent at best. The offensive line should recover from their massive issues last year and that will help Hurts passing.

Miles Sanders should remain a solid fantasy choice, particularly if the offensive line can return to their previous strength. Sirianni turned to the rookie Jonathan Taylor later in the year as a workhorse back. Sanders already has two seasons under his belt and should see an increase in work. He’s the only Eagle’s ball handler that is a lock for a better season.

If Ertz leaves, Goedert becomes a very strong fantasy option at tight end.  Given the less experienced and productive wideouts, his role should remain at least as busy as his 46 catches for 524 yards last season and likely more.

Jalen Reagor is the wideout to watch in the hopes that his sophomore season can deliver on his potential. If the Eagles spend their 1.06 on a wideout, he’ll be worthwhile in a fantasy draft even as a rookie. If they hold off until later rounds, the Eagles may not provide any notable fantasy receivers outside of Goedert same as last season.

The team is playing the long game with their selection of coaches, so 2021 will be a rebuilding year that will see the new offense evolve. That leaves Sanders, Hurts and Goedert as the only locks for fantasy relevance.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Canada takes over as the offensive coordinator of a Steelers team that could look way different in 2021.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks coach Matt Canada was promoted to offensive coordinator, replacing Randy Fichtner after a three-year run.

Canada, eh?

For as tempting as it may be to fill the rest of this space with jokes about maple syrup and other fun references to north of the border, consider yourself spared from this point forward.

The 49-year-old has extensive history calling plays at the collegiate level, dating back to 1997 at Butler. He has coached running backs (Northern Illinois (1998-2000) and was even the interim head coach for Maryland in 2018. Predominantly, Canada coached quarterbacks and was an OC at eight schools.

The 2021 Steelers will look much different than last year’s version. In all likelihood, though, the offensive system may not be radically changed. Canada was the 2020 quarterbacks coach, which was his only season in the NFL as a coach.

Coaching tendencies

Canada is known for his creativity and radical presnap shifts. Another aspect of his play designs and calling is masking the same play with multiple looks. For example, he may see a matchup to exploit, such as a wide receiver screen, and dress up the presnap look multiple ways to attack the same weakness from very different formations.

The Steelers will work on emphasizing the running game in 2021 after a disastrous effort last season. Running back Anthony McFarland Jr. played under Canada at Maryland, and with impending free agents likely to exit, there’s an interesting opportunity for the 2020 rookie.

There will be certain aspects of Canada’s pro-style spread preferences that won’t apply to Ben Roethlisberger, assuming the quarterback returns for the 2021 season. General manager Kevin Colbert indirectly addressed this situation, transcribed via SteelersDepot.com:

“Coach and I talked about that, because I’ve asked coach Tomlin, with Matt taking over, will we be looking at different players differently? Coach is always going to talk about what we have and how we can adapt what they do to what we currently have.

Maybe as we move into the future, further down the road, and we’re deciding on a wide receiver type or a running back type or a quarterback type or an offensive lineman type, we may shift as we evolve and learn what coach Canada’s offense is about,” Colbert said.

Being flexible and adaptive right out of the gates will be what fantasy footballers observe from Canada’s offense, regardless of what happens at quarterback. In college, Canada coached a spread system with QB Chandler Harnish, went on to Wisconsin to implement a power-running system, and then tutored Jacoby Brissett into a quality spread quarterback.

The gist of Canada’s system — whenever we see it in full view — is to play fast and prevent players from having to think too much on the fly. Overcomplicating things isn’t his style, even though the presnap movement looks ridiculous at times. There’s a method to the madness, and it’s to tip off the quarterback about the defensive scheme, as well as make the opponent constantly guess.

Expect something that sort of resembles Sean McVay’s system after the snap with all of the jet sweeps and misdirections to get a defense to mentally lean toward a certain outcome.

Prior to the hiking the ball, Canada and McVay’s offenses are much different. McVay runs the same formation multiple times and forces defenders to guess which play comes next out of a look he has shown them several times.

The concept remains the same: constant manipulation of the defense’s attention,  ultimately in order to attack with fundamental plays at their core.

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Personnel changes

First of all, Big Ben’s contract is an issue. He’s willing to restructure and has said money is not an object to him. This situation is extremely fluid and could change by the time this sentence is finished being typed.

The Steelers will investigate all options, but financially, restructuring Roethlisberger and adding one year to his existing deal is the smartest approach for handling the salary cap (the reduced figure this year hamstrings Pittsburgh). Cutting Roethlisberger will save $19 million in cap space but also eat up $22.25 mill in dead money.

James Conner — a Canada running back at Pitt — is set to hit the open market. There’s little chance at this point he returns, but never say never. Look for the tandem of McFarland and Snell to shoulder the load.

At receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster is a free agent in March, and there’s almost no chance he renews with the Steelers. The offense found a gem in rookie Chase Claypool last year, and Diontae Johnson could be poised for another step forward in his game.

Starters left guard Matt Feiler and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva are free agents, too, and it remains unclear if either will be back. Center Maurkice Pouncey retired following the 2020 season, and that’s probably not a bad thing given his slumping play.

Pittsburgh is currently $6 million over a projected $185 million cap.

Fantasy football takeaway

Everything hinges on Big Ben’s situation. The Steelers have Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins behind him on contract. Rudolph is a mildly better fit for the offense than a 39-year-old Roethlisberger, but Haskins doesn’t mesh.

McFarland’s utilization and corresponding fantasy worth will be hyped throughout the offseason. Keep tabs on news surrounding his expected touch share and how he fares in eventual on-field practices, COVID-19 willing. He could emerge in this offense as a regular fantasy contributor.

Both Johnson and Claypool will be surefire fantasy starters if Big Ben returns. In the event Rudolph or another guy is starting, each receiver’s ceiling is rather limited.

Tight ends were a staple of Canada’s system in college, and Eric Ebron could be a focal point of this offense in 2021. Multiple tight ends are common in Canada’s designs. Another boost for Ebron is longtime NFL tight end and mentor Alfredo Roberts was recently tabbed as the new tight ends coach. While Ebron’s durability limitations make him a risky fantasy option, there’s considerable potential here to find a value buy late in drafts.

A bunch of things will change as the coming months unfold, of course. The Steelers had a quality teacher in Fichtner who struggled as a designer and in-game playcaller (rewatch the first half of the playoff loss to Cleveland). Canada’s history shows he’s an exceptional architect of plays … we’ll see how he fares with when to call what in his first year as an NFL OC.

2021 NFL coaching changes: New York Jets

The Jets move ojto head coach Robert Saleh

Two years with Adam Gase as head coach and play-caller, and the Jets nosedived to the bottom of the standings and rankings. Despite having the 1.03 pick in 2018 with Sam Darnell, the Jets finished No. 32 in quarterback fantasy points on a team that lost 14 games and always had to throw. Despite spending the big bucks on acquiring Le’Veon Bell two years ago, they ended up dumping him during the season and ranked No. 31 in running back fantasy points.  They ranked No. 30 in tight end fantasy points though they’ve been there for many years.

They even held a firm grasp on the No. 1 overall pick this year but ruined that with a late-season win. The beleaguered franchise hasn’t had a winning record in five years and ranked near the worst in all offensive categories almost every season.

Gase and his crew were sent packing, finally, in January and they tabbed one of the hotter coaching candidates for the new head coach gig – Robert Saleh. He comes fresh from four years as the 49ers defensive coordinator, and the entirety of his 15 years coaching the NFL came from the defensive side of the ball. He inherits a team with a far better defense than offense. The Jets ranked roughly average in most defensive categories and was Top-10 against the run.

By contrast, the 49ers played through a nightmare season thanks to injuries and COVD-19 and yet his defense still ranked near the top in all categories and ended No. 1 in rushing touchdowns allowed (12), passing yards allowed (3,514) and overall yardage allowed (5.211).

Saleh brought the 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur along with him to run the Jets’ offense. Saleh’s forte has always been defense, so LaFleur will have considerable imprint on the offensive scheme. Like Salaeh, LaFleur spent his last four years with the 49ers under offensive-minded Kyle Shanahan. LaFleur is 33 years old and has coached in the NFL only since 2014. This will be his first time as an offensive coordinator in the league, though he filled the role back during his three years at Saint Joseph’s. LaFleur is the little brother of the Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.

Jeff Ulbrich fills in as the defensive coordinator and had a ten-year career as a linebacker for the 49ers. After spending a few seasons coaching special teams in Seattle, and then linebackers /special teams at UCLA, he’s been in Atlanta where he coached linebackers and then served as the defensive coordinator starting mid-season during their coaching shake-up.

Coaching tendencies

Head coach Robert Saleh – The Jets reverse course from their last foray into a hunt for a new head coach. Adam Gase brought in offensive credentials and the all-too-brief specter of a productive and innovative offense. Saleh is a player-friendly and intense coach that coached alongside the offenses of the Seahawks and 49ers. He’s considered a prime catch for the Jets and someone who should be better up to the task of returning the franchise back  into respectability. Considering that he ran the defense in San Francisco for four years and brought along Mike LaFleur from there, the Jets will attempt to import the 49ers style and scheme on both sides of the ball.

Given that the 49ers did as well despite dealing with rampant injuries last year bodes well for the Jets and their  lackluster roster. And Saleh and both of his coordinators are in their first NFL season in their roles. Couple that with a roster in transition and a rebuild won’t happen over night. Then again, the Jets were 2-14 last year so the bar is not that high to consider his first season as a success.

Saleh will have a hand in the defense but he’s there to create a winning culture and get the franchise back on track. One of the criticisms of Adam Gase was that he was too involved with the offense to the detriment of running an entire team.

He’ll install that aggressive, “All Gas, No Brakes” defensive scheme but allow Jeff Ulbrich to direct the defensive plays. Saleh’s job is to motivate and coach up players on both sides of the ball and to import the 49ers-style culture. The Jets ranked No. 30 in penalty yards last season and that’s also a  focus for the team.

Saleh will run the same 4-3 that he had with the 49ers and the Jets already used that scheme last year, though officially they were a 3-4. The transition shouldn’t be a problem.

Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur – LaFleur spent the last three seasons as the passing game coordinator with the 49ers and they tied an NFL record with 13 different players catching a touchdown in 2019. He brings in a scheme that uses all receivers including tight ends. George Kittle’s breakout came with LaFleur handling the passing. The offense will always seek to establish the run first to set up the pass.

This is a complicated and diverse attack that will take time to install. The 49ers ranked in the Top 6 for each of the last three years and yet never featured a running back with more than 153 carries in a season. Injuries had an obvious impact, but this is not the sort of offense that relies on one primary back to any large extent. The backfield totaled in the Top-5 in fantasy points for the last two years and yet never featured any back.

Under LaFleur, the passing offense was average at best thanks mostly to Jimmy Garoppolo’s inability to stay healthy. And while the 49ers spent high draft picks on wide receivers for the last two seasons, they haven’t produced any wideout with more than 802 yards in the last three years. Again – most of them were injured at some point each year.

The offensive scheme that LaFleur will import will employ a committee backfield. The offensive line isn’t nearly as good as he had in San Francisco, so the results are not likely to produce any top running back at least initially. But this is a scheme that threw 80 to 90 completions to running backs.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich – With only six years experience as a linebackers coach, Ulbrich helps to install and run the defense for Saleh. He’ll bring an energetic presence to accompany his experience with both coaching and playing. Ulbrich played with Saleh for one year in Seattle when he was a special teams assistant back in 2011.

Ulbrich is in a great situation being given the rebuilding job with the Jets defense while working under Saleh’s direction. He’ll call the defensive plays and is another high-energy, player-friendly coach looking to install a better culture.

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Personnel changes

There could be significant and wide-ranging player moves for 2021, while installing new offensive and defensive schemes. First and foremost, there’s no certainty who the quarterback will be. Sam Darnell hasn’t remotely lived up to his 1.03 draft selection though there’s diversity in how the blame gets assigned.  The Jets appeared to be a lock to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes but then fell to 1.02 with a late-season win.  There’s plenty of speculation as to what happens with Darnell, but the Jets are playing it very close to the vest and there may not be any clarity until that 1.02 pick is announced.

The Jets backfield has no primary back with Le’Veon Bell gone during last season and Frank Gore becoming a free agent yet again. The Jets have to acquire new blood to carry the ball.

The receivers are a marginal grouping of Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman (free agent), and Denzel Mims. Chris Herndon is the top tight end but only managed 31 catches in 2020. The shelves are pretty bare for the offense but a total rebuild is on the way.

The Jets have $71 million in cap space, so they can jump into the free agent arena armed with cash. The also own the 1.02, 1.23, 2.02, 3.02, and 3.23 picks in the draft over the first two days. That’s three of the top 34 players and all should be year-one contributors. This is likely to be the most changed roster in all of the NFL in terms of offensive skill players.

Fantasy football takeaway

The Jets lacked fantasy-relevant players under Adam Gase. And he left behind arguably less than when he took over in 2019 despite higher draft picks and trades. The defense was already better than most but has been saddled with an ineffective offense that did them no favors.

The reality is that the Jets do not look to be dramatically better for fantasy football for at least this initial season under Saleh. There’s an unsettled quarterback situation that is likely to end up relying on a rookie learning a new scheme along with the rest of the offense.

There are currently no running backs with any fantasy value and even after they add one or more backs to upgrade, the scheme is not one that will just hand the ball off to the same guy 24 times every week. It will be a committee backfield with rushers, third-down backs and receiving backs.

The passing scheme under LaFleur is likely to be just as diverse as the 9ers used. That means the mediocre crew of wideouts are even less likely to see one player step up and dominate short of drafting a first-round wideout. Even then – the passing game will be a work in progress.

There’s value in a dynasty vein this year, but the league’s worst offense on 2020 doesn’t project to make much progress in their first season.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Miami Dolphins

Dolphins turn to dual offensive coordinators.

The Dolphins enter their third season with head coach Brian Flores but the offensive coordinator position has been constantly churned with a different one for each of the last five seasons. That’s not exactly a model of consistency.

Flores’ first year tabbed Chad O’Shea to run the offense since both were fresh from stints with the Patriots. The Fins went 5-11 that first year and the offense gave up 56 sacks while featuring the NFL’s worst rushing attack. O’Shea was released after just one season.

For the second year with Flores, he went back into the past to lure Chan Gailey out of retirement. He had last ran the  Jets offense (2015-2016) and his lengthy resume included two head coaching stints and numerous other offensive coordinator jobs in the league. He helped turn around the franchise that ended with a 10-6 season. Gailey had a history with Ryan Fitzpatrick and helped the mid-season transition to 1.05 pick Tua Tagovailoa. Gailey resigned at the end of the season.

All of Flores’ previous coaching jobs had been on the defensive side of the ball, so he relies more on the offensive coordinator than many other NFL teams where the head coach may call plays and has a more direct hand in the offensive scheme and personnel. Flores went with an unusual approach for 2021. Not only do the Fins have a different offensive coordinator for the fifth-straight season, they actually have two.

Flores promoted up Eric Studesville and George Godsey to become co-coordinators. It’s highly unusual to give both the same title.

Coaching tendencies

Offensive Coordinator (Run Game) Eric Studesville  – Starting in  1997, Studesville started coaching the running backs in the NFL for the Bears (1997-2000), Giants (2001-2003). Bills (2004-2009), Broncos (2010-2017), and finally the Dolphins (2018-).  Studesville was also the assistant head coach for the Broncos (2017). That’s 23 years of coaching running backs, and he’s also been the run game coordinator for the Fins for the last three seasons.

The Dolphins’ backfield has been one of the least productive for the last three years though that’s hard to pin on Studesville. There hasn’t been a top back in Miami in many years, and the last two with Flores had the lead backs of Myles Gaskin and Patrick Laird. There’s been little to work with and the offense has tended towards passing more often in the last few years if only due to trailing in games.

While the play-calling duties are still not certain, both coordinators will be involved and the offensive scheme is not expected to change much from what Gailey has left behind.  While the Dolphins ranked only No. 28 in rushing yards by running backs (1,380) last year, they completed 104 passes for 849 yards to the position, ranking Top-5 for each.

The Fins have been in a full rebuild for the last two years, and the improvement in the backfield should be seen this year with a better offensive line and a likely upgrade in personnel.

Offensive Coordinator (Pass Game) George Godsey – The Dolphins promoted Godsey into the co-coordinator role after two years as their tight ends coach. He spent time with the Patriots, Texans, and Lions over the previous nine seasons and was the offensive coordinator in Houston (2015-2016).

Like Studesville with his backfield the last two years, when Godsey ran the offense in Houston, he had little to work with as well. The starting quarterbacks were Brian Hoyer (2015) and Brock Osweiler (2016). The Texans drafted Deshaun Watson the year after Godsey left.

Godsey had experience with Ryan Fitzpatrick and then helped to transition Tagovailoa into the offense. The Fins are all-in with their second-year quarterback and Fitzpatrick may not resign. While Fitzpatrick was more of a pocket passer, Tagovailoa brings more mobility to the position with three to six rushes per game last season.

As with Studesville, any deviation from the offensive scheme of last year is difficult to forecast.  They should see higher rushing numbers but that depends more on adding new personnel.

The offensive scheme should be an evolving one with input from two different coordinators. Since both were there last year under Gailey, there shouldn’t be much difference at least in the earlier part of the season.

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Personnel changes

This is the season that the Fins under Flores should take shape. They are armed with four picks in the first two rounds – 1.03, 1.18, 2.04, and 2.18. With a solid defense, there’s a good chance that at least three of those first four could go to the offense – wideout, running back and offensive line. All three could be Week 1 starters.

Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed will return as the top two backs from last year’s roster. Gaskin turned in several solid games in the second half of 2020 but only totaled 142 runs for 584 yards on the season. The Dolphins need an upgrade for their backfield that hasn’t seen a top rusher in many years. Studesville helped squeeze that they could from the mishmash of players these last two seasons, but the team needs a true No. 1 back and has the draft capital to make that happen.

Tagovailoa returns for his first full season. There was speculation that the Fins could end up trading for Deshaun Watson, but that appears to be just offseason chatter.

Devante Parker enjoyed a breakout season in 2019 (72-1202-9) when he feasted on the prevent defense in a throwaway season. He dropped back to only 63 receptions for 793 yards and four scores last year while helping to break in the rookie quarterback. He still managed two 100-yard efforts with Tagovailoa.

Preston Williams Is a 6-4, third-year player that has flashes of talent and twice was lost for the year in Week 9 each season. He tore his ACL and then injured his foot. The Dolphins are expected to use one of their first four picks on a wideout and may even consider burning their 1.04 on a top wideout in the draft to give Tagovailoa three solid wideouts, at least until Williams leaves again in Week 9 this year.

Mike Gesicki returns for his fourth-year after a breakout 2020 campaign that saw him with 53 catches for 703 yards and six scores, four of which came from Tagovailoa in the second half of the season.

Fantasy football takeaway

How the dual coordinators work out remains to be seen and it will likely evolve as the season progresses. Keeping continuity by promoting two position coaches  will help Tagovailoa’s development continue, as will spending an early pick (or getting a top free agent) on wideout.

There is no consensus early on as to whether the Fins buy an early wideout or running back in the draft, but both should be addressed. The Dolphins already showed improvement last year though mostly on defense. While the passing effort naturally declined with the rookie, there’s every reason to expect at least incremental improvement from Tagovailoa with a chance for fantasy relevance if they upgrade the offensive line and skill players around him.

Parker and Gesicki are the only offensive players that are locked into being fantasy starters.  But any early pick on a running back could turn into a fantasy star in this improving offense. The dual coordinators will be worth watching during the season since it is a new flavor to offensive schemes.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle turns over the offense to a Sean McVay disciple with hopes of toppling its divisional foe.

The Seattle Seahawks jumped out to a torrid start in 2020, only to look lethargic on offense in a system that had become quite predictable. The stale nature and first-round exit from the playoffs as the third seed forced head coach Pete Carroll to effectively fire offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

It took some time, and the input from quarterback Russell Wilson, but Carroll found his replacement playcaller from the coaching staff of the team that bounced him from the playoffs. Los Angeles Rams passing game coordinator Shane Waldron was hired for the job after seven seasons as an NFL assistant without actually calling plays in the NFL’s regular season.

Waldron entered the league in 2002 as an operations intern under Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots. The stay lasted until the end of the 2004 season, and Waldron left with the title of special teams quality control coach. The next three years would find Waldron at Notre Dame as a graduate assistant under Charlie Weis before a 2008 return to the Patriots as an offensive quality control coach. The Pats would make him tight ends coach in 2009, and Benjamin Watson paced his positional mates with 29-404-5 — the third-most yards and second-most touchdowns by any New England pass catcher that year.

A one-year stay in 2010 as wide receivers coach of the Hartford Colonials of the United Football League would be followed by a single season as the offensive coordinator for the Cambridge, Mass.-based Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School. The 2012-13 seasons witnessed Waldron coach tight ends for UMass, and he would transition in 2014 to the offensive line coaching gig.

All of that culminated in a return to the NFL in 2016 as an offensive quality control coach for Washington, which put Waldron on the same coaching staff as Sean McVay. When McVay went to Los Angeles in 2017, Waldron followed and was named tight ends coach for that season. In 2018, LA tabbed him its passing game coordinator, which is a key role in this dynamic system. He added quarterbacks coach in 2019 but relinquished the title a year later

Coaching tendencies

“He’s a phenomenal coach,” McVay said of Waldron in 2018, according to The Detroit News via ESPN.com. “He’s a great communicator. He’s got a rare ability to authentically and genuinely connect with not only coaches but the players and be able to correct in a manner that doesn’t make guys’ guards come up. It’s all about problem-solving and doing it together. He’s obviously done a phenomenal job, really mainly as a leader for our offense, not exclusively to just being a pass game coordinator.”

The Rams featured a balanced offense in the last four years, ranking in the top 10 for passing and rushing three times apiece. The interesting aspect of this marriage with Carroll will be how much of Waldron’s own offense will he be allowed to install.

For example, when Schottenheimer took over the job in 2018, he was given only about 30 percent of the offense to make his own after the remainder was carried over from the Darrell Bevell’s system. That’s a rather unusual situation, but it stands to reason we could see it again. Seattle set team highs in points scored last year, and Carroll has gone on the record saying he wants the offense to be more committed to a successful ground game.

Having background of playing tight end in college and coaching the position, as well as guiding offensive lines, Waldron probably is given ability this offseason to implement a new rushing system but little more. This team needs a fresh coat of paint, not a complete rebuild from the ground up.

Los Angeles has consistently been among the best teams at utilizing play-action passing under McVay and Waldron. In order to establish a believable play fake, the defense must be worried about the run. This is one area where things could get dicey in the offseason.

Creativity will play a factor, too. McVay, like Andy Reid, has done a tremendous job of masking his intentions by designing multiple attacks from the same-look personnel groupings presnap, often incorporating motions to further get the defense guessing.

Expect more freedom for Wilson calling plays at the line of scrimmage if he sees something he doesn’t like from the defense. Seattle also should emphasize more zone blocking.

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Personnel changes

Starting with running backs, 2020’s top rushers, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are set to become unrestricted free agents in March. Carson is the focus and will have a market, if he so chooses to explore it, after surpassing all expectations as a seventh-round pick in 2017. It’s unlikely the Seahawks will come close to his market value in a long-term deal, but there’s always the chance he could receive a tag.

Carson had a dozen 100-yard games in 2018 and 2019 combined but failed to top 80 yards in any of his 12 appearances in 2020. He still rushed for a career-high 4.8 yards per carry, and even though Carson scored only once in the final six games, including the postseason, he still totaled nine offensive scores for the third consecutive season — and on far fewer touches.

In 2018, Seattle spent a first-round pick on running back Rashaad Penny. He has battled injuries and ineffectiveness since coming into the league. There’s a decent chance he enters the offseason as Seattle’s top back, but DeeJay Dallas will want to make his mark, too.

The Seahawks currently sit almost $14.45 million under the cap, which is subject to change due to the coronavirus pandemic. This placement has Seattle ranked 17th in most cap space among its top 51 players.

Possible veteran replacements include free agents James Conner, Le’Veon Bell, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Kenyan Drake, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, Mike Davis, Leonard Fournette, Malcolm Brown and Adrian Peterson, or the team may turn to the NFL draft yet again for a late-round addition.

There’s obvious connections to Waldron with Gurley and Brown, but neither back will be asked to shoulder the load in a just world. Seattle could opt for a committee approach with players on the team already, or we could see the likes of role players, such as Matt Breida, Brian Hill, Jerick McKinnon, Jamaal Williams and Tevin Coleman, getting a shot in a true committee.

Offensive line woes continue to plague Seattle, but according to Pro Football Focus, the 16th-ranked 2020 version of this fivesome is the highest grade earned since Wilson become the team’s quarterback nine years ago. Starting left guard Mike Iupati and center Ethan Pocic are unrestricted free agents in March.

Iupati is 34 years old for the 2021 season and doesn’t have many options. It looked like retirement should be in the conversation he has with himself this spring.

Pocic moved back to his natural position for 2020, starting 14 games and playing well enough that he warrants a look, if the money makes sense. Pocic, 26, struggled late in the year, which will be fresh in the old memory banks. Pocic is far better suited for a zone-blocking system, which is likely to come over to some degree with Waldron from LA in contrast to offensive line coach Mike Solari’s preference for power blocking. This area will require a deeper look over the summer.

Seattle also faces free agency at fullback (Nick Bellore) and from No. 3 receiver David Moore, who proved to be a clutch asset in 2020 with defenses focusing on the two big guns ahead of him.

Tight end should be addressed in a more meaningful way than Seattle attempted with Greg Olsen in the 2020 offseason. He has since retired, and Will Dissly has been a major injury liability when given more playing time.

Fantasy football takeaway

The weapons in the passing game are present for Wilson to cook all day and night, but the words out of Carroll’s mouth paint a picture of Russ tending a microwave and not a fiery grill.

The ideal balance is run more successfully than last year — a season in which Seattle rushed the 14th fewest times — and parlay that into play-action passing down the field. The vertical gains will make up for the lessened volume, suggesting Wilson remains among the elite fantasy options at the position.

The backfield is still in too much flux to make any strong predictions, but there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic for the lead ball carrier. Penny could emerge as a fantasy favorite in draft season, provided the offseason works in his favor. Stay tuned.

Expect markedly fewer receptions for Tyler Lockett than his career-high 100 from a season ago, while DK Metcalf actually stands to benefit from healthy play-action system. The latter has more upside simply because he’s a generational talent. Lockett is a better WR2 than a No. 1.

Should the offense decide to rely more on the run, there will be fewer targets to go around, particularly for running backs, the tertiary wideout, and the tight end position, indicating we’re looking at spot plays from any of these players.

We’ll revisit this situation once the backfield shakes out with more clarity.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings turn to a familiar face following offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s second retirement.

Long-time NFL coach Gary Kubiak, 59, recently retired for the second time, leading Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer in the hunt for his third offensive coordinator in as many offseasons.

There was more or less no change from Kevin Stefanski in 2019 calling plays to Kubiak last year. The latter was on the staff as an advisor to Stefanski in ’19, and the 2020 Cleveland Browns success illustrates Stefanski learned a thing or two. The system built by Kubiak throughout the years has been prolific for fantasy purposes, especially at the running back position. Therefore, it should come as no surprise Zimmer wanted to keep things as close to unchanged as possible, which is what helped lead to the hiring of Klint Kubiak, Gary’s 33-year-old son, as the natural replacement at offensive coordinator.

The younger Kubiak was hired by Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier in 2013 after he spent three seasons at Texas A&M as the offensive quality control coach (2010-11) and inside receivers coach (2012) as a graduate assistant. Kubiak was the assistant wide receivers and offensive quality control coach for two seasons before returning to college in 2015 as Kansas’ wide receivers coach.

The 2016 season saw him join his father coaching the Denver Broncos, where Klint would spend three years as an offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach. Zimmer hired both Kubiaks in 2019, and Klint served as Kirk Cousins’ positional coach the past two years.

Coaching tendencies

Since we have zero to go on as far as Klint Kubiak’s style as a playcaller, the best we have to with which to work is his experience learning from his father. Klint grew up in this offense, being immersed in the details of a successful run-driven, West Coast system from the time he was a kid.

The past five seasons have positioned him well to learn on the job within his father’s system. Therefore, we’ll rehash what was covered in the 2020 preview of Gary Kubiak assuming the playcalling role in the Twin Cities:

A quick refresher on Kubiak’s history reminds us of his love for running the football. Due, in part, to past health issues, he sat out of coaching in 2017 and ’18, instead holding a consultation role with the Denver Broncos. Granted, much has changed across the NFL from 1995 to present day, yet we have seen Kub produce top rushing and passing offenses, depending upon the personnel. While he mostly found success with average quarterback talent and a fading superstar in his last hurrah, it’s not like too many of Kubiak’s running backs were elite, either.
Offense
Rushing Off
Passing Off
Year
Tm
Role
Yds
Pts
TO
Att
Yds
TD
Y/A
FL
Att
Yds
TD
Int
1995
DEN
OC
3
9
14
16
5
13
2
22
7
7
8
8
1996
DEN
OC
1
4
17
2
1
2
4
25
16
13
5
12
1997
DEN
OC
1
1
6
6
4
5
2
7
20
9
4
6
1998
DEN
OC
3
2
3
2
2
1
2
3
21
7
5
8
1999
DEN
OC
14
18
10
9
12
10
14
8
10
15
26
16
2000
DEN
OC
2
2
7
4
3
3
6
17
9
3
6
5
2001
DEN
OC
22
10
9
6
10
30
19
3
20
25
8
18
2002
DEN
OC
3
7
11
11
5
5
3
4
14
8
18
23
2003
DEN
OC
7
10
7
2
2
3
4
2
26
22
16
18
2004
DEN
OC
5
9
18
2
4
15
8
5
16
6
8
25
2005
DEN
OC
5
7
1
2
2
3
4
5
25
18
20
2
2006
HOU
HC
28
28
11
21
21
14
20
16
23
27
28
8
2007
HOU
HC
14
12
31
22
22
16
24
27
19
11
12
28
2008
HOU
HC
3
17
30
16
13
11
13
20
7
4
13
29
2009
HOU
HC
4
10
16
20
30
18
31
17
4
1
5
17
2010
HOU
HC
3
9
4
19
7
1
3
2
10
4
17
7
2011
HOU
HC
13
10
6
1
2
3
8
22
30
18
18
3
2012
HOU
HC
7
8
6
4
8
4
16
1
18
11
18
10
2013
HOU
HC
11
31
26
22
20
28
15
9
6
15
25
28
2014
BAL
OC
12
8
6
11
8
5
7
9
17
13
12
8
2015
DEN
HC
16
19
29
17
17
12
13
7
13
14
28
32
2016
DEN
HC
27
22
21
15
27
20
28
30
17
21
21
12
2020
MIN
OC
4
11
23
8
5
8
4
17
27
14
6
20

Kubiak didn’t call the plays himself in each of those seasons. However, including them is a must, since he didn’t take his finger off of the heartbeat of his teams’ systems. Whether it be handpicking the playcaller, constructing a game plan, and/or interjecting with a specific call during a game, Kubiak never let the offensive designs truly go out of his control. He also had a large role in molding the Stefanski system of 2019, as mentioned.

Zone blocking is a staple of a Kubiak offense, and the outside stretch run is one of his favorite plays. The offense loves to deceive defenses through play-action passing, rollouts, bootlegs, misdirections and a plethora of personnel groupings. Being a West Coast system, running backs are expected to catch, and tight ends are just as important as route runners as blockers. Receivers are asked to block as much as on any team. They operate with short-area routes and clearouts to keep defenses scrambling to cover the proper level.

Also working Klint’s favor is long-time colleagues of his father — offensive line coach Rick Dennison and tight ends coach Brad Pariani — continue on with the coaching staff in 2021.

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Personnel changes

Minnesota has no primary starters on offense ready to hit the free-agent market in March. The Vikings currently sit roughly $8.54 million over the salary cap, but the catch here is we don’t yet know the actual 2021 cap figure from the league. It is believed to go down, possibly into the $175-185 million range after being $198.2 million in 2020.

There are many ways to get below the cap without a wholesale roster purge, and $8.54 million is hardly problematic when looking around the league. For perspective, New Orleans is in the worst shape at $70,796,484 in the hole.

According to Spotrac.com, Cousins carries a team-high $31 million cap charge. He could be restructured via extension as he faces a $45 million cap hit in 2022.

The third-highest 2021 cap hit is left tackle Riley Reiff at $16.45 million. He is coming off of arguably his best year but would save the team $11.75 million if he’s released.

Minnesota will pocket $5.1 million in savings if (when) tight end Kyle Rudolph gets the ax, and a decision will be forced on what to do with safety Harrison Smith’s deal. He enters the final year of his contract and would save the Vikes $10.25 million should he be shown the door.

Fantasy football takeaway

Expect much of the same from this offense in terms of its design and implementation. We cannot possibly know whether Kubiak’s tempo will be different, or if he’s inclined to play it safe in risky situations. Either way, look for Dalvin Cook to remain a workhorse, and the team will work in play-action passing to exploit defenses choking up to the line. This offense ranked sixth in rushing attempt percentage (47.6), toting the rock 29 times, on average. Cook is entrenched as one of the top five fantasy backs, especially in PPR.

Wideouts Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are two of the better fantasy football commodities at the position, and the latter’s breakthrough rookie season could have him poised to once again displace Thielen in 2021 as Cousins’ primary target. Thielen will be 31 before the season begins, and his 2020 value was overly dependent upon finding the end zone (14 TDs in 15 games), whereas Jefferson outpaced him in targets, receptions and yardage as a rook.

As for Cousins himself, he’s safely drafted as a matchup play for most settings after an 11th-place finish among his positional peers in 2020, although there is merit in choosing him as a late-round starter. The veteran finished ’20 on a heater, tossing three touchdowns in five of his last seven games and six of the final nine.

The tight end position is expected to feature third-year man Irv Smith Jr. with Rudolph’s likely release. Smith has flashed more than once in his career and should be viewed as one to watch leading up to draft season. A low-volume passing attack with two prominent receivers and a pass-catching running back in Cook makes it tough to bank on Smith being a weekly contributor, however.

All things considered, Kubiak’s system should keep Minnesota’s core playmakers in position to be quality fantasy options, especially if the defense continues to take its lumps.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Atlanta Falcons

Falcons turn to ex-Titan coaches to lead the team.

Dan Quinn was into his sixth season as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons when he was fired in Week 5 of last season. Quinn advanced to the Super bowl in 2016 that he lost in overtime to the Patriots. They reached the Divisional Round in 2017 but then turned in seasons of 7-9, 7-9, and 4-12 last year. The Falcons were 0-5 when team owner Arthur Blank fired Quinn.

Ex-Tennessee Titans’  Arthur Smith became one of the first new head coaches hired in January. He’s spent the last decade on the offensive side as the quality control coach, offensive line coach, tight ends coach, and then their offensive coordinator for the last two seasons before being hired by the Falcons. He’s the son of Fed-Ex founder and CEO Fred Smith.

Smith was a much-desired head coaching candidate, and his Titan’s offense reinvigorated Ryan Tannehill’s career. It also allowed Derrick Henry to explode from being a lesser-used back to leading the league in rushing for two straight seasons. He also improved the offensive line to be one of the top units. Under Marcus Mariota in 2018, the Titans only passed for 15 touchdowns. Two seasons with Smith and Tannehill working together and they totaled 29 and 33 passing scores.

Derrick Henry was a workhorse in college but far less so for his first three NFL seasons. That changed when Smith fed him over 300 carries each year and witnessed him rush for 2,027 yards last season.

Dave Ragone was hired as the offensive coordinator after his five seasons with the Bears as the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator. Ragone worked alongside Smith when both were with the Titans in 2011-2012. The offensive scheme belongs to Smith, with Ragone there to help install it. Ragone has already gone on record as the play caller for at least this season.

To run the defense, Smith didn’t look far. He brought in 71-year old Dean Pees as the defensive coordinator in the same role that he had in Tennessee from 2018-2019. Pees spent time in the college ranks before leaping to the NFL in 2004 when he joined the Patriots for six years, then the Ravens for eight years helping run their defenses. Pees ran the Titans defense for two years and then retired. Smith brought him back into the NFL for one more time.

Pees is one of only a handful of defensive coordinators to coach two different  teams in the Super Bowl. Since 2008, his defenses always sent one or more players to the Pro Bowl. Pees retired in 2019 but said that he “really missed it”. He said he wasn’t going to look for a job but his friend and fellow coach on the Titans came to him.

Coaching tendencies

Head Coach Arthur Smith –  Smith oversaw one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history with Derrick Henry becoming the eighth player to rush for over 2,000 yards. His offense set a team record with 168.1 rushing yards per game and while it is easy enough to point at Derrick Henry as the real reason, Henry had never rushed for more than 1,059 yards in his first three seasons without Smith running the offense. Henry scored 23 touchdowns over his first three years and then 35 in just the last two seasons.

And it is not enough to expect that Smith is all about the rushing game. He’s given Ryan Tannehill a second chance in the league that resulted in career years in most passing metrics for the one-time Dolphins quarterback. Some of his success was giving up on Marcus Mariota. He also helped second-round pick A.J. Brown to break 1,000-yards receiving in his first two seasons. He helped Corey Davis to finally play like a first-round pick when his fourth season ended with a career-high 984 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

The Titans under Smith had one of the highest rates of rushing the ball in neutral game scripts (when they neither trailed nor led significantly) but that was reflective of what he had to use and how well it worked. They often relied on the shotgun formation, but the passing attack was never that diverse. Aside from Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, no other wide receivers caught more than 23 passes last year. Adam Humphries managed 37 receptions in 2019, but the passing scheme is heavily weighted towards the two starting wideouts.

Smith has also employed tight ends as receivers and ranked in the Top-10 for tight end receiving yardage both years that he led the offense. Last season, the team tight ends produced 12 scores to rank No. 3 among all NFL teams and No. 4 in overall fantasy points generated by the position. That was split up almost evenly between Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser, so he relied on  more than one individual tight end.

Smith prefers a more balanced offense than what we’ve seen in Atlanta the past few seasons where the rushing effort remained below average and Matt Ryan was Top-5 in the number of passes thrown. Smith has been described as an old-school coach with a gift for innovation and motivation.

Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees  – The Falcons went with one of the most experienced – and successful – defensive minds in the NFL. He’s tasked with rebuilding one of the worst defenses in the league. The Falcons ranked dead last against the pass last year – No. 32 versus quarterbacks and wide receivers and No. 30 against tight ends.

His defenses are marked as opportunistic. Both the Patriots and Ravens excelled in defensive scoring under him and his final two years at the Titans saw their unit ranked No. 3 and No. 12 in the metric.

When he was asked if his defense was a 3-4 or a 4-3, he replied. “Yeah, that’s what we are.” His defenses are complex and always hard to read. Given the state of the Falcons secondary, the need for someone like Pees is dire.

Pee’s defenses are notoriously hard to decipher for opposing quarterbacks and he calls a very aggressive game that usually features a high volume of blitzes. The Falcons already have one of the better trios at linebacker that shows up in their No. 8 ranking versus running backs last year. The Falcons have to address the defense first and foremost in the offseason with a better safety and more edge rushers as the primary need. The Falcons cannot hope to turn it all around in one year from being the leakiest secondary in the league, but better pass rushing helps cover the defense while they install a new scheme and incorporate new and younger players.

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Personnel changes

The needs are bigger than the dollars to spend, so the Falcons have to be judicious addressing the rebuild. The only notable offensive player that becomes a free agent is Todd Gurley who stated that he wants to return. But his first season in Atlanta resulted in a career-low 195 rushes for 678 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He ran in nine touchdowns but did little else. The 26-year-old was a beast for the first four seasons in the NFL and then on rapid descent for two years due to his chronic knee problems.

Brian Hill is also a free agent while Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison were  nonfactors. The Falcons have to acquire or draft a new running back with both youth and a working set of knees. Smith just spent the last two seasons directing the best rusher in the NFL and he lands on a team with basically no No. 1 running back. There will be a new running back in Atlanta. There has to be.

Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley return so there’s no personnel changes to the passing game. With so many other needs, particularly on defense, there’s no sense in spending any draft picks on a wideout.

Other than running back, the notable changes need to be in the secondary with a new safety and improved corners. Center Alex Mack also becomes a free agent but the Falcons may not resign him. There’s speculation that Mack may retire as well.

Fantasy football takeaway

Arthur Smith and Dave Ragone will install a new offense that will bring more balance. The weak Atlanta defense of the last two years prompted Matt Ryan to throw over 600 passes in each while the Titans offense ranked No. 30 and No. 31 over the last two seasons in pass attempts (484 and 446). If the defense improves quickly enough, there will be less need to throw so often and that almost certainly lowers the passing production.

To their benefit, Smith’s scheme focused on only three players when they pass – both starting wideouts and the tight end. No one else had any fantasy relevancy. That won’t bode well for No. 3 types like Russell Gage or Olamide Zaccheaus. But Ridley and Cooper should both remain solid fantasy options since they will remain the primary targets and likely take an even bigger percentage of the throws.

Hayden Hurst’s first year as a Falcon produced a career-best 56 catches for 571 yards and six touchdowns. The Titans tight ends turned in nearly double that much in 2020 under Smith, but that was with a near split between two different tight ends. Hurst’s stock may rise incrementally since the new offense will rely on their tight ends as receivers.

The most interesting and fantasy-relevant change revolves around the primary running back. There is a chance that they bring Gurley back but there’s no reason to expect him to improve even with Smith there. His health likely sees him move onto another team. Free agency and the draft will be considered to upgrade the position. The new offense will take time to install and the offensive line was already below average even with C Alex Mack and LT Jake Matthews. It will take a running back time to reach their potential in the offense, and more so if they rely on a rookie rusher.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Indianapolis Colts

The 2021 Colts may look much different on offense, despite an internal coordinator promotion.

Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni spent two years on the job before recently becoming Philadelphia’s head coach. The move resulted in Indy’s top man, Frank Reich, promoting quarterbacks coach Marcus Brady to the OC position.

Brady, a three-year veteran NFL teaching, was hired by Reich in 2018 as the assistant QBs before his 2019 promotion to the full positional mentor. He cut his teeth in the Canadian Football League as a quarterback for several teams in the 2000s prior to becoming a wide receivers coach for the Montreal Allouettes from 2009-11. Brady was then hired by the Toronto Argonauts in 2013 as their offensive coordinator, a role he held until Reich came calling.

Coaching tendencies

The CFL game hasn’t an apple-to-apple comparable for the NFL’s version of the game, but some concepts remain consistent. In his first year running Toronto’s offense, Brady’s team posted the second-most points per game in the league, and the Argonauts finished third in offensive yards. No team threw for more yards that year. Conversely, it helped create the worst rushing attack in the CFL.

Team ranks under Brady as OC (2013-17)

Year
 Team
Pts/G
Pass Att/G
Pass yds/G
Pass TD
Rush Att/G
Rush yds/G
Rush TD
2013*
 Toronto Argonauts
2
2
1
1
8
8
5
2014
 Toronto Argonauts
3
2
1
1
8
7
9
2015
 Toronto Argonauts
2
3
5
1
9
9
9
2016
 Toronto Argonauts
4
7
8
6
6
6
9
2017
 Toronto Argonauts
6
1
2
4
8
7
9

* The CFL expanded to nine teams after the 2013 season

The CFL differences that impact the game the most for this representation: 1) the field is longer and wider (110×65 yards), 2) teams have 12 players on the field at once, and 3) there’s no fourth down. Those elements dramatically influence playcalling, which typically skews heavily in favor of passing. In other words, Brady will fit right in with the current NFL!

He has been away from those rules for three seasons, but having been a former collegiate QB at Cal State Northridge and a San Diego native, Brady is obviously well-versed in the NFL format.

Brady learned under a former NFL playcaller in Marc Trestman, and at one point in time, the latter was in demand in the states. Trestman, once Chicago’s head coach, was a successful offensive coordinator in multiple stops. His roots are in the West Coast system, with an emphasis on teaching quarterbacks — just like Brady has demonstrated.

Former Colts quarterback Andrew Luck praised Brady’s understanding of the game during their time together, and the 41-year-old coach is known for his unflappable demeanor. Consider that to be among the top intangibles for a first-year offensive coordinator to possess.

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Personnel changes

In the upcoming offseason, Indianapolis will be in the market for a starting quarterback after the retirement of Philip Rivers. Indy’s 2019 starter, Jacoby Brissett, is set to hit unrestricted free agency in March, but there may not be much of a market for him outside of the Colts.

In some regards, returning to Indianapolis makes ample sense for both sides. Even if Brissett were to come back on a one-year deal as a stop-gap, he brings familiarity and a relationship with Brady that would help ease the transition. With that in mind, the Colts also have been linked to trading for Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz.

Then there’s the prospect of what to do with a soon-to-be 32-year-old T.Y. Hilton. He has battled diminished play and injuries over the past few years, but the veteran turned it on in the second half of 2020. Hilton told NFL insider Josina Anderson that he’d be interested in returning to the team if things work out for both parties, though he’s focused 100 percent on free agency.

Running back Marlon Mack (Achilles) is a free agent, too, but he probably wasn’t going to return after drafting Jonathan Taylor last spring. Tight end Trey Burton played a useful role at times in 2020. He also will be a UFA in March.

The core of the offense otherwise is poised to return. Indianapolis has major question marks to answer at wide receiver. Indianapolis has a pair of second-round picks invested in the position in the last two drafts, and so far the results have been middling. Michael Pittman Jr. brings considerable promise as he enters Year 2, yet 2019 rookie burner Parris Campbell has been an all too frequent visitor to the blue medical tent. Behind those guys, Zach Pascal is the only receiver with any notable experience.

On the plus side, this is one of the deepest free-agent classes at wide receiver in recent memory. Indy ranks third in most cap space available ($69.56M), and only Jacksonville has more to spend after the top 51 rostered players are accounted for on the books.

Fantasy football takeaway

With a dominant offensive line and a prized running back in Taylor, Brady may be forced to rely on the ground game more than he prefers. There’s not a lot to delve into here without knowing the quarterback, and the answer to that puzzle will play a role in what happens with Hilton, too.

For now, hang your hat on Taylor being the only beacon of hope in this offense. There’s little reason to doubt him as a low-end RB1 target on volume alone. The defensive fronts he faces most often will be determined by the quarterback under center.

Pittman is the only current receiver gamers should be intent on drafting, and his utility is far more secure in PPR settings.

Brady’s offense may struggle in 2021 through no fault of his own if the front office doesn’t shore up the quarterback spot and improve the cast of players in the passing game.

With all of that cap space, a strong line, and a winnable division, Indy will be an attractive spot for free agents. Check back with us as 2021 NFL rosters begin to take form for an update of all things Colts.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars turn to a new coaching staff for turnaround

The Jacksonville Jaguars move on after four years with head coach Doug Marrone logging a 10-6 record that won the AFC South in 2017. They advanced to the Conference Championship that year but the wheels quickly came off. The Jaguars went 5-11, 6-10, and then finally 1-15 last season. While this will be the first new head coach since 2017, it will also be a different offensive coordinator for the fourth straight season.

The Jaguars lured Urban Meyer into the NFL after he was the head coach at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, and Ohio State over 17 years. Meyer totaled up a 187-32 record at those colleges that included most recently 83-9 at Ohio State (2012-2018). He is one of the most successful coaches in college football history and he goes to a rock-bottom 1-15 Jaguars franchise.

That NFL-worst record in 2020 was a part of why Meyer agreed to head up the team. The Jaguars hold that No. 1 overall draft pick that Meyer can use to build the exact sort of team that he wants. He spent the last year studying the NFL and spoke with former players about the differences between college and the pros. Unlike most coaches that jump from one fire to another, Meyer did not coach last year and used the time to study the NFL and how to optimize a team there.

There’s a monumental difference in the NFL in how players are obtained, taught and motivated than in college. At Ohio State, Meyer could rely on attracting the highest caliber players from across the country. In the pros, he’ll have to wait his turn though he holds that No. 1 pick. The Jaguars also own several chances to rebuild quickly through the NFL draft holding the 1.01, 1.25, 2.01, 2.14, and 3.01 over the first two days.

He’ll need the help. The franchise is on a three-year stretch of losing records and contains no star power. They ranked no better than average in all offensive categories and featured no wide receiver with more than 706 receiving yards. They have ranked in the Bottom-5 in rushing attempts and touchdowns for the last three years.

Coaching tendencies

Head Coach Urban Meyer – The feeling is that this is either going to work very well with a quick turnaround, or it will be yet another instance of a successful college coach unable to adjust to the complexities and challenges of the NFL. Meyer built an identity of excellence in college that culminated in  Championship teams for both Florida and Ohio State. Meyer never lost more than two games in any of his seven seasons with the Buckeyes.

Meyer is a perfectionist and demands excellence. He will bring in a culture of accountability. It is easier to reap a fresh crop of outstanding players each year and then tell them that excellence and buying into the program is the only way to play. It is another to inherit a 1-15 team stocked with mostly mediocrity. But to his credit, he’s spent time figuring out how the transition from college to the pros differs and what he needs to do to succeed.

Meyer’s teams at Ohio State were noted for being relentless and tough. He recruited the speediest players possible and said he intends to do the same thing with the Jaguars since he wants the fastest team in the NFL. If he hits well on those four picks in the first two rounds of the draft, Meyer can turn this franchise around but he’s starting out with a roster full of mediocrity – something that he’s never willing to accept.

Defensive Coordinator Joe Cullen  – The Jaguars hand the defense off to Joe Cullen who was an NFL defensive line coach for fourteen years. He coached the Lions (2006-2008), Jaguars (2010-2012), Browns (2013), Buccaneers (2014-2015), and most recently the Ravens (2016-2020).

This is the second stint with the Jaguars for Cullen. He inherits one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. The Jaguars were below average against all fantasy positions and ranked in the Bottom-5 versus quarterbacks (No. 28) and  running backs (No. 30).

Cullen has been lauded for his work with defensive lines and that is a weakness for the Jaguars. His five seasons with the Ravens produced stellar units but this will be the first time that he’s called the plays for a defense. He’s been a high-energy, “in your face” coach that succeeded in developing players and his ascension into being a coordinator was praised by both ex-players and fellow coaches.

There’s little to go on regarding what his defense will look like as a first-time defensive coordinator, but he’ll be groomed by Urban Meyer and will have a positive impact on the previously anemic pass rush in Jacksonville.  The biggest success factor will be drafting or signing better talent. Urban Meyers said his primary job on both sides of the ball is finding a scheme that fits his players and using coordinators with extensive NFL experience.

Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell –  Early expectations were that Scott Linehan would be hired but Darrell Bevell was selected after 15 years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL. He coached the Vikings (2006-2010), Seahawks (2011-2017), and Lions (2019-2020). He served as the interim head coach for the Lions last year after Matt Patricia was fired.

Bevell was the Seahawk’s offensive coordinator through two Super Bowls with Russell Wilson. He was brought onto the Lions for the last two years in the hopes that he could revamp a mediocre rushing attack but the Barry Sanders curse remains in place for the Lions, despite spending the 2.03 pick on D’Andre Swift. He was saddled with a team that couldn’t stop most opponents, so the rushing effort too rarely was an option.

The Lions did cobble together three running backs to total 17 rushing scores, and they maintained a Top-10 passing attack despite constant injuries over the last two seasons.

Bevell oversaw the passing game while in Seattle while Tom Cable was the offensive line coach and run-game coordinator. He was eventually fired in Seattle for an offense that started slowly with Russell Wilson at the helm. The Jaguars also hired Brian Schottenheimer as their pass-game coordinator who was the offensive coordinator that replaced Bevell in Seattle. This offense will lean more towards the pass than the run as have the offenses by both Bevell and Schottenheimer. The lack of balance with the run was a reason why Pete Carroll fired both of them.

Bevell is in line with Meyer’s plan to hire coordinators with extensive NFL experience and then adopt the offensive scheme to the players. There’s plenty to fix in all facets of this team, but the one unquestioned move is drafting Trevor Lawrence and installing a fast, high-powered passing game.

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Personnel changes

There is enough salary cap space to make free agent moves and use five draft selections in the first 65 picks to restock the team. Trevor Lawrence is expected to be the Week 1 starter so his learning curve is paramount to team success. He’s expected to be an elite if not generational-level player with both the athletic skills and intelligence to make the transition into the NFL.

James Robinson earned his spot as the starting running back and there’s little reason to expect him to share more this season. There’s no one else on the roster that merits much playing time and far too many other needs to worry about a No. 2 running back.

Bevell has to sort through a menagerie of potentially talented players. There’s a good chance he adds another wideout to the mix and he’ll be looking for a speedster when he does.

Fantasy football takeaway

The first season for any rookie quarterback is usually a disappointment in fantasy terms. Justin Herbert exceeded expectations to be sure, but he also had Keenan Allen. The only players with locked-down roles are the rookie Lawrence, D.J. Chark and James Robinson.

Chark broke out in 2019 with 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns but then suffered a down 2020 along with the rest of the offense. He fits into the style of receiver that Meyer used in Ohio State and ran a 4.34/40 in the NFL combine. An upgrade at quarterback should get him back into the fantasy starter picture.

Laviska Shenault led the receivers with 58 catches last year but only gained 600 yards for an anemic 11.2 yards per catch. His draft stock dropped him into the second round last year after running a 4.58/40 at the combine. That may not fit into the fast team that Meyer wants. Keelan  Cole is another slower player that only managed a 4.59/40 at his college Pro Day.

Collin Johnson started coming on later last year, but the ex-Longhorn only ran a 4.58/40 and used his 6-6 frame to make a difference. Free agency and the NFL draft are likely to add to the receivers since other than Chark, the rest of the productive wideouts all rate as slow in NFL terms and Meyer wants the fastest crew in the league.

2021 NFL coaching changes: Tennessee Titans

The Titans have new but familiar faces at offensive and defensive coordinator entering the 2021 season.

Following a 2,000-yard rushing effort from Tennessee Titans star Derrick Henry, second-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was hired by the Atlanta Falcons as their new head coach, leaving a void in Nashville, Tenn.

The vacancy led Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel to go back to the well once more. When Smith was promoted to the job in 2019, he replaced then-OC Matt LaFleur by promoting the tight ends coach, Smith, to the role. It worked out nicely for the Titans, so why not rinse and repeat?

Smith’s replacement is another internal choice, and one with the same title as his predecessor. This time, veteran NFL coach Todd Downing was named the offensive coordinator.

On the opposite side of the ball, Vrabel formally announced the 2020 unofficial defensive coordinator Shane Bowen will be given the title for the upcoming season — something that hasn’t sat well with plenty of Titans fans.

Coaching tendencies

Shane Bowen

We won’t invest much time here, mostly because fantasy defenses are a dime a dozen, and this one isn’t worth a nickel. The Titans generated the third-fewest sacks last year (19) but mustered 23 takeaways. Only one of those plays went the other direction, taking this defense from what would have been the sixth-worst unit to the ninth-weakest fantasy commodity in 2020. Bowen called the plays and scripted the plans for a defense that saw its two best players regress from the prior season.

One can argue there wasn’t enough talent, and that’s not an unfounded claim, though it is difficult to see a path for a major turnaround for fantasy purposes. What’s the argument then for why the best players regressed in their respective prime? Generally, it is schematic in nature.

Even if the Titans doubled their 2020 sack total to 38, we’re looking at what would be the 15th-best group in that department. Even Arizona’s 48 sacks didn’t help the defense finish higher than 16th in fantasy points.

Todd Downing

When an offense has fantasy weapons in the caliber of Henry, quarterback Ryan Tannehill and wide receiver A.J. Brown, a new playcaller is bound to get some attention in fantasy circles.

As mentioned, Downing was the tight ends coach for the past two years, but his NFL experience goes back to 2005 as an offensive quality control coach for the Minnesota Vikings under head man Mike Tice. The firing of Tice sent Downing to the St. Louis Rams as a defensive quality control coach and special teams assistant from 2006-07. He dropped the latter title for the 2008 season. Downing moved to Detroit in 2009 after Scott Linehan was fired by St. Louis early in the ’08 season.

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From 2009-13, Downing would move back to the offensive side and coach quarterbacks as well as returning to the quality control position. He briefly stopped in Buffalo (2014) before a successful two-year stint with the Oakland Raiders as the QBs coach that he parlayed into a dismal one-and-done 2017 showing as the team’s offensive coordinator — the first time in his career he was a playcaller. A return to where it all began for him in Minnesota for the 2018 campaign led to Downing coaching tight ends for the first time.

For the sake of using tangible data, we’ll look a little deeper into his lone year calling plays for the Raiders. The offense had been No. 6 overall in the 2016 season when Downing was the QBs coach and Bill Musgrave was the coordinator. Derek Carr enjoyed two of his finest seasons with Downing as his positional coach as the Raiders were built to maul on the ground and take deep shots, which sounds familiar. The line was hefty and was at its best using a power-blocking style as the primary scheme.

In Downing’s 2017 stint as OC, the offense took a visible step backward. He presided over the 17th-best offense in the league, and the big-armed Carr was relegated to a life of dinking and dunking. The overall playcalling volume shrank by nearly 10 percent. The average yards per attempted went from 7.0 to 6.5, while the average number of completions per touchdown pass rose from 13.1 to 15.1.

Carr’s interception percentage went from 1.1 to 2.5. The running game regressed as well, but not quite as steeply. The percentage of drives that ended in a score tumbled from 38.7 to 29.2 as Carr’s quarterback rating fell 10 points year over year.

Downing’s playcalling (with a similarly ranked defense, mind you) saw the 2016 Raiders go from rushing for the sixth-most yards on the 11th-most attempts as a team to 2017 ranks of 30th and 25th, respectively.

It wasn’t all bad, but we’re admittedly grabbing at straws here. The red-zone efficiency and third-down conversion rate both slightly improved under Downing. He also cannot be blamed for Amari Cooper dropping everything in sight that season. Nor can he be at fault for the Raiders starting a 31-year-old running back in Marshawn Lynch for 15 games — the hometown replacement for Latavius Murray wasn’t quite Beast Mode at that point in his career.

Also going for Downing is the emergence of tight end Jonnu Smith in this Tennessee offense. Just a few years ago, Smith was looking like a long shot in fantasy.

In Oakland, though, Downing’s offense was predictable and lacked any sense of exoticism. Say what you will about that fitting into what Tennessee likes to do, but at least Smith’s system took shots down the field. Tannehill averaged nearly 1.5 yards per attempt greater than Carr did under Downing, and Smith’s offense ranked ninth in explosive plays last year, whereas Downing’s 2017 Raiders ranked ninth from the bottom.

Finally, Tennessee ranked third in the NFL last year in offensive balance, only one of three teams to rush more than pass. Downing’s system in Oakland was fifth worst in balance and threw 21 percent more than it passed. While one may say, “So, today’s NFL is pass-happy?”, it doesn’t fit the Vrabel style of smash-mouth football that takes smart chances.

Now that we’re caught up on his vast experience spread over multiple cities and under several different styles of coaching, what should fantasy gamers expect from this offense in 2021?

Much of that comes down to the team’s moves in free agency….

Personnel changes

Fresh off of a breakout year, former first-round pick Corey Davis hits the receiving market ahead of his age-26 season. He certainly could opt to return, but after the Titans declined his fifth-year option for 2021, Davis may have no interest in coming back to the team, especially at what is bound to be a reduced offer given the Titans’ limited wiggle room with the salary cap.

A bevy of free-agent receivers set to hit the open market make Davis expendable. Wideouts Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Nelson Agholor, T.Y. Hilton, Marvin Jones, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, A.J Green, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Breshad Perriman all have a chance to sign with the Titans.

With a possible 2021 savings of $4.47 million, it won’t come as a surprise to see slot receiver Adam Humphries get the boot. It would save a few bucks over the next two seasons following a pair of injury-shortened years with the Titans.

As mentioned, Jonnu Smith blossomed under Downing’s guidance, and he’s set to test the market looking for his first big contract. The list of available tight ends isn’t quite as impressive, although the likes of Hunter Henry, Jared Cook, Dan Arnold, Gerald Everett and Jordan Reed could be on the short list if Tennessee is unable to retain Smith.

Otherwise, the core of the offense, including a fairly high-priced front five, should return in 2021, despite some chatter about left tackle Taylor Lewan (knee) possibly being a cap casualty after his replacement acquitted himself nicely. (Who knows what will happen with 2020 first-round pick OT Isaiah Wilson’s off-the-field issues.)

On Bowen’s defensive side, DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney, DT DaQuan Jones, CB Desmond King and LB Jayon Brown all are impending free agents. The latter three will be missed a great deal should they defect.

Fantasy football takeaway

This one really could go either way. There was a ton of skepticism by yours truly over Smith taking over in 2019, but there’s a similar path to Downing being crowned OC, and Vrabel’s desire to pound the ball will be the X-factor here. Does he mandate Downing rushes it to the extreme volume we saw from Smith? Does Downing have the in-game selection and flow kinks worked out that plagued him in 2017? Does having “been there, done that” warrant the benefit of the doubt? One would like to think Downing has grown from the disaster in Oakland.

All great questions that will make or break Downing in 2021 … As long as he mostly adheres a “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it” mentality and relies on his workhorse while incorporating extensive play-action passing, all should be fine in Nashville. After all, no one racked up more yards from play-action last year than Tannehill, and no running back accumulated more rushing gains than King Henry. The sooner Downing realizes and adapts to these realities, the more seamless the transition will become.

Tannehill could be a fringe QB1 but a far safer backup with matchup value. The potential holes to fill at wide receiver and tight end will largely dictate his overall fantasy worth.

Barring an injury, Henry is a lock in the first round for fantasy backs. He has workload concerns, sure, but if anyone is built to withstand that kind of beating, one has to believe he’s the dude.

At receiver, Brown has enjoyed two strong years and is on the verge of greatness. He will bounce between WR1 and No. 2 stock as the draft season plays out, but the third-year pro’s worth will fluctuate based on how the team addresses the Davis situation.

Tennessee’s fantasy defense under Bowen should not be considered as more than a fringe matchup play against the weakest of offenses.

We will revisit any of the key moves as they happen over the coming months.