NFL Coaching Change with fantasy football impact – Page 2

2022 NFL coaching changes: Houston Texans

Mike McDaniel leaves the 49ers offense to become the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

Last season, the Texans hired the Ravens pass game coordinator David Culley to become the new head coach, and he retained Tim Kelly as their offensive coordinator for the previous two seasons. The lack of talent further lessened with the Deshaun Watson situation, meant that the bar was low after head coach Bill O’Brien was fired during the 2020 season from a team that would end 4-12 with little more than Watson for an offensive weapon.

Most expected Culler to struggle with a weak roster and missing draft picks that could help with much-needed upgrades. Culler would end with a 4-13 record, and he never had Watson to use, unlike O’Brien the previous season.

But Culler never saw a second season. After discussions with general manager Nick Caserio and other Texans’ front office personnel, the team opted to part ways. There were conflicts in how to rebuild the No. 32 offense and issues regarding in-game management and player discipline. It was chalked up to philosophical differences.

After interviewing several candidates, the Texans opted to just promote Lovie Smith from defensive coordinator to head coach. He’s relying on offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton to make the Texans competitive again after serving as the Texans’ quarterback coach. So much the same coaches remain from last year, they’ve just swapped positions. For a team that seems stripped of talent and chock full of previous dysfunction, it’s a bit of a surprise that instead of sweeping out the current coaching regime, they opted to just scrape off the top layer of coaches and promote others up.

Lovie Smith has long been involved on the defensive side of the ball. He became a head coach for the Chicago Bears (2004-2012), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2014-2015), and then for Illinois (2016-2020). Last year, he joined the Texans as the associate head coach and defensive coordinator. He’ll rely heavily on Hamilton to take care of the offense.

Hamilton’s coaching resume stretches back to 1997 and contains a total of 15 career moves between college and the pros, mostly as a quarterback or wide receiver coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts (2013-2015), and a head coach in the XFL. He served as the Bears QB coach under Smith in 2007 to 2009 and this reunites the pair.

Coaching tendencies

There’s not a lot to go on as to any change in the direction of the offense. Hamilton was considered a key piece by Smith when he assembled his staff, in part because of the relationship he had already forged with rookie quarterback Davis Mills. He’s already spoken to his expectations for the offense with Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan.

Hamilton’s only stint as an NFL offensive coordinator was in 2013-2015 during the middle of Andrew Luck’s career and was there in 2014 when Luck threw for a personal best 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns.

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Hamilton had elements of the West Coast offense, with a scheme that spreads the passing among the wideouts, tight end and running backs. All three years in Indy saw a committee backfield that mixed Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown, and Frank Gore without any providing more than marginal fantasy points. No back had more than 157 carries in his first two seasons, though Gore ran 260 times for 967 yards in 2015 with a paltry 3.7-yard average.

Despite playing with Andrew Luck, the only notable receivers were a young T.Y. Hilton and a fading Reggie Wayne. Hamilton generates excitement that he can help rebuild the offense as he did with the Colts when he took an offense that was only average and saw them rank as high as No. 3 in offensive yardage.

Hamilton did rely more heavily on Frank Gore for the one season, so there’s no guarantee that the Texans extend their mind-numbing committee approach with aging and mediocre runners like last year.

Personnel changes

The Texans own the 1.03 pick in the draft, along with the 2.05 and two picks in the third round. The problem is that there are needs at almost every position and the expectation is that the first one goes to defense. What they do in free agency will be just as important as how they spend their picks, but this is a team with few difference makers and nearly no depth anywhere.

Deshaun Watson is still expected to be traded, and the bevy of picks that likely nets are much needed. Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor will battle for the starting spot only because Lovie Smith said no one walks into a starting role, but all expectations are that Mills spends his second season as a full-time starter.

The Texans’ backfield ranked dead-last in rushing yards (1,193 ) and rushing touchdowns (5) and used seven different running backs along the way. Rex Burkhead was the most productive with only 122 runs for 427 yards. David Johnson and Royce Freeman are free agents. Only Rex Burkhead is signed for this year. The Texans will be acquiring either free agents or rookies or both.

Brandin Cooks was the lone bright spot among the 2021 receivers and he’s signed through this season. Beyond him, there was little last year. The rookie Nico Collins was next best with 33 catches but only one score. Like the backfield, the Texans opted for quantity over quality again. The entire set of wideouts is forgettable after Cooks and maybe Collins.

The rookie tight end Brevin Jordan sparked optimism in the second half of the 2021 season but still only ended with only 20 catches. But the Texans were happy enough that this won’t be considered a need.

Fantasy football takeaway

The Texans ranked at the bottom of virtually all fantasy metrics last year. The offensive line rates as one of the worst for the last several seasons. The trade for left tackle Larry Tunsil stripped the franchise of two No. 1 picks at the time but only meant that there was one good blocker amid all the others. At least they have a first-round pick this year.

There are still holes from when Bill O’Brien wrecked the roster and David Culley inherited the problems plus lost Deshaun Watson. The probable fantasy upgrade will be with running backs, but limit expectations until their offensive line finally shows improvement.

Davis Mills could be a surprise this year. New OC Pep Hamilton was the QB coach last year and the rookie threw four 300-yard games over twelve starts and totaled eight touchdowns over the final four games. And he did that with little more than Brandin Cooks for a weapon.

Barring a surprise drafting of an early wideout, Cooks holds almost all the fantasy outlook for the receivers. There are so many needs it all depends on how the Texans approach the draft and free agency. Sadly, it is not considered a strong year for rookie running backs anyway, and Hamilton is okay with a committee of mediocre rushers if he can ignite the passing instead.

2022 NFL coaching changes: Buffalo Bills

Will Buffalo’s offense miss a beat with a new coordinator in Ken Dorsey?

Long-time NFL offensive coordinator Brian Daboll finally earned his shot at being a head coach when the New York Giants came calling, paving the way for the Buffalo Bills to look internally for his replacement. Quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey was promoted to the OC job, which will be his first experience as a pro play-caller.

Despite being a noob in this area, the former NFL QB has been in the league as a coach for eight seasons as a quarterbacks coach. Dorsey also served as a pro scout for the Carolina Panthers and an assistant athletic director for Florida International University. Joe Brady will replace him as the positional coach.

Dorsey has been instrumental in quarterback Josh Allen‘s development, and while the new OC came up under Mike Shula’s tutelage in Carolina, don’t expect this offense to stray a great deal from what has worked so well the last two years in Buffalo.

Dorsey helped put his stamp on 2021’s most prolific offense as he tacked on “passing game coordinator” to his duties. The key for Buffalo will be trying to keep continuity in place through the coaching change.

Coaching tendencies

It’s always tough to say with ironclad confidence just how much variance we’ll see out of Dorsey in relation to Daboll, but the degree of change shouldn’t be overly noticeable. What’s more difficult to predict is his in-game play-calling habits. Some coaches are great at scheming and drawing up plays but ultimately struggle to actually call the right plays in the heat of the moment. That’s not to say he will have a rough go of it, but it’s plenty fair to posit how long it will take to become a well-oiled offense.

A quick look at Daboll’s system should help give us some idea of what to expect from an overarching view. In the past two years, which are a better representation of his four seasons in Buffalo thanks to Allen having mastered the offense, the Bills ranked 11th in passing attempts in 2020 and fifth in ’21. As a result, we’re looking at the third-most yards and TD passes two years ago and the ninth-highest yardage output to go along with the seventh-most aerial strikes in 2021.

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The rushing attack produced the sixth-most yards and ranked No. 7 in scores in a year ago. In 2020, Buffalo’s ground game was less prominently featured, generating the 20th-most yards on the 17th-most attempts. Fourteen teams produced more touchdowns from the backfield. But, even with all of the passing success, Daboll’s offense at its core loves to run the ball. The same can be said for Shula, Dorsey’s mentor. In the two years before Allen ascended to an elite level, the Bills ran the sixth-most times in consecutive seasons, and in Daboll’s nine seasons as an OC, his teams ranked sixth or better in attempts six times. The rankings of pass-to-run ratios the past three years in Buffalo: 10th (2021), 12th (2020) and 26th (2019).

The 40-year-old Dorsey is rooted in a run-based system. Some of it has been out of necessity, because NFL-caliber QBs aren’t exactly easy to come by, but Shula did have Cam Newton in his prime.

Below is a breakdown of Shula’s seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator. Take it with a grain of salt, since Dorsey is his own man and has a Ferrari at quarterback with a run-of-the-mill coupe in the backfield. Similarities in having mobile quarterbacks with defensive-minded bosses can be found.

Play-calling tendencies also greatly rely on the efficacy of a defense, and that shouldn’t be an issue in Buffalo.

Category	TB (1996-99)	CAR (2013-16	NYG (2018-19)	Total
Yards	27	18	19	22
Points	25	13	14	18
TO margin	19	13	15	17
Rushing attempts	7	5	12	10
Rushing yards	13	7	11	12
YPC	18	14	12	14
Rushing TD	18	10	13	15
Passing attempts	28	25	20	23
Passing yards	29	24	21	24
Passing TD	19	14	14	16

What should be gleaned from this table? Dorsey, even with his background as a quarterback and QBs coach, cut his teeth in a run-heavy system during modern-era football and also went on to see the same situation play out in Buffalo as the team’s quarterback became more capable. Remaining balanced is in his coaching DNA, and if he gets away from it, don’t count on him lasting long in Western New York.

Personnel changes

The Bills currently sit nearly $3 million in the hole, but there won’t be much trouble restructuring a few deals to get under the salary cap and still have room to sign rookies.

As for free agents, veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders is set to become available, but there’s no urgency to re-sign him ahead of his age-35 season. Backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, RB Matt Breida, special teamer Taiwan Jones also are scheduled to hit the market. Left guard Ike Boettger will join them, and given Jon Feliciano‘s durability issues, re-signing the veteran reserve or adding more depth will be key to maintaining the positional strength.

Seven defenders are schedule for free agency, and six of them are along the defensive line. Buffalo should restock depth up front, but they could make a serious bid to renew Harrison Phillips if the money lines up. Expect cornerback Levi Wallace to be a coin flip for returning as his contract demands may exceed what the Bills can devote. All told, this team should return nearly intact on both sides of the ball with a hint of cap creativity.

Fantasy football takeaway

Allen should reprise his role as one of the three-best fantasy quarterbacks. His legs really make a difference, and that says something when talking about a guy who as at least 36 TD passes in consecutive seasons.

The backfield will be interesting to watch with a free-agent market that has some intriguing options to pair with 2021 breakthrough-lite Devin Singletary. After back-to-back years of mediocrity, he strung together seven straight games with 14.9-plus PPR points to close out the season. The Florida Atlantic product scored nine of his 11 TDs in that time (includes postseason). Singletary has season-long RB2 potential but likely shakes out as a third back in most formats.

Zack Moss was in and out of the gameday lineup as a healthy scratch, so his 2022 outlook is thick as mud for the time being. Moss is purely a flier for now.

Stefon Diggs figures to be a top-flight PPR receiver once again, and he’s safely placed among the five most important players at his position. Gabriel Davis is the real wild card among the fantasy prospects. He exploded in the AFC Divisional Round to the tune of four TDs but scored five times in the prior six contests after a forgettable opening three months to the campaign. If Buffalo doesn’t address this position with a clear-cut favorite, Davis will be a popular breakout candidate for more than a third of the season at a time. Cole Beasley‘s contract is in its final year, and he’s a favorite of Allen, so it will be a surprise if he’s not extended or restructured with a dummy year rather than being released.

Tight end Dawson Knox was one of fantasy’s most pleasant breakthroughs in 2021, and barring an injury derailing him, there’s no reason to expect a serious step backward. That said, he’s touchdown-dependent by nature, and the idea of him taking yet another step forward warrants healthy skepticism if one expects the first three receivers will excel. Either way, he’s still usually capped at being the third target-getter over the long run of 2022.

Expect little to change on the surface, and Dorsey’s comfort with Allen is the driving force behind it.

2022 NFL coaching changes: Miami Dolphins

Mike McDaniel leaves the 49ers offense to become the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

The Brian Flores era lasted three seasons in Miami, not counting ongoing litigation. His teams finished 5-11, 10-6, and 9-8 while just missing the playoffs the last two seasons. In 2021, the Fins were 1-7 before finishing 8-1. Notably, the Dolphins lost to the Jaguars to end their 20-game losing streak, but back-to-back winning seasons were believed to keep Flores on the job, particularly considering the quality of the roster and impact of injuries that indicated that Flores had done an admirable job with what he had to work with at the time.

But Flores was released with the official statement of “…I determined that key dynamics of our football organization weren’t functioning at a level I wanted it to be…”

That was speculated to mean that Flores and general manager Chris Grier had a power struggle and that Grier won. Regardless, the Dolphins moved on to new head coach Mike McDaniel who acted as a position coach for the offense in stints with the Washington Redskins (2013), Cleveland Browns (2014), Atlanta Falcons (2015-2016), and then was the run game coordinator for the 49ers (2017-2020) and then the offensive coordinator last season.

McDaniel played under head coach Kyle Shanahan whose lengthy NFL resume was entirely on the offensive side of the ball, and he’s always had a heavy hand in the play calling for the 49ers. McDaniel tagged along at every stop for Shanahan since 2006, and the new head coach will call plays for the Dolphins after working under Shanahan who he described as “one of the best aspects the San Francisco 49ers have going is we have one of the best play-callers to have done it,” about his old boss.

McDaniel will throw some nuances onto the offense, along with Frank Smith, but this will be a 49ers scheme that employs a complicated and diverse offense.

Coaching tendencies

McDaniel will call plays. He did not do that for the 49ers, but the influence is clear. The offense seeks to optimize all players, and to rely on a committee backfield, a strong tight end, and a diverse passing scheme that spreads the ball among all receivers. It is interesting that the only season as the offensive coordinator in San Francisco is the one that developed Deebo Samuel into a hybrid weapon that no longer neatly fits any offensive position.

Last year, the 49ers’ offense ranked right around average in all the fantasy positions. They ended No. 12 in pass yards (4,413), No. 14 in passing touchdowns (25), and No. 14 in overall quarterback fantasy points. And that was up from the previous three seasons where the position only ended around No. 20 in fantasy points each year.

The 49ers had long relied on a committee approach with running backs but last year – the only one with McDaniel as offensive coordinator – surprised when they relied heavily on just one running back. Elijah Mitchell had injury issues, but when he was healthy, he became a workhorse and logged over 20 carries in each of his last five games played.

The stats fell for tight ends last year when George Kittle struggled with injuries. He had been Top-5 when healthy over the previous three years. Kittle was often the primary receiver in past seasons.

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The scheme spreads the passes around to the wideouts, tight end, and running backs. That’s left wide receivers to rarely offer more than average stats and fantasy points. Deebo Samuel became mostly a running back in the second half of last year, but the 49ers ranked no better than average considering the receptions by the position.

Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel combined for ten games with six or more receptions. And that was influenced by the down year by George Kittle. The changes to the 49ers offense last year was finally relying on a workhorse back and the creative use of Samuel. How much of that was a function of McDaniel and not just Shanahan responding to situations will be seen this year in Miami.

Personnel changes

The Dolphins rated average in passing and receiving last year but were one of the worse teams rushing the ball. That’s a function of the offensive line and the lack of quality in running back. Overall, no team threw more passes (174) and completions (122) to their tight end. At 1,271 yards for the position, the Fins were No. 3. Mike Gesicki caught 73 passes but the others combined for 59 receptions. While they only rated around average in wideout categories, the great chunks came from Jalen Waddle.

The Dolphins’ hire of McDaniel was made partly with Tua Tagovailoa in mind. He enters his third NFL season and this is his first as the unquestioned starter. He dealt with Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2020 and then played last season with the specter of Deshaun Watson being acquired. The commitment is there for Tagovailoa who should benefit.

The offensive line needs improvement and was one of the worst units in 2021. They allowed the most quarterback pressures (235) and the Fins rushed for the second-fewest yards per carry (3.5). They brought in Boston College’s Matt Applebaum as the offensive line coach to implement a zone-blocking scheme that will benefit the run game in particular, but the Fins have to refresh at least some of the linemen if appreciable improvement is to happen.

The backfield ended with Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson as the most productive, but it was a glaring weakness and further impaired by the poor blocking. This is an area that the Fins can upgrade easily and see at least some improvement. McDaniel was there for the 49ers’ first workhorse back in Elijah Mitchell but the Dolphins have no one remotely capable of that level of production, let alone the blocking that the 49ers enjoy.

Mike Gesicki is a free agent but could be a franchise tag. It would make sense and he would be a nice fit for the scheme that will rely on a tight end more than most.

Jaylen Waddle was a great pick last year, even though he cost the Fins a first-round pick to acquire. DeVante Parker is signed through 2023 and returns but Will Fuller is a free agent after being a colossal bust in his only season with the team.

Fantasy football takeaway

This is a new offense and benefits won’t happen overnight, particularly if McDaniel mirrors the complex scheme of the 49ers. But Tua Tagovailoa gets a bump with the commitment they have in him. He gets a confidence boost and hopefully an upgrade to their offensive line that did him no favors for the last two years.

The area to watch is the backfield and how the new regime handles acquiring new running backs. This could remain a committee approach and certainly doesn’t merit any change with the below-average set of rushers currently on the team. The benefits of changes to the offensive line and backfield won’t be completely apparent until 2023, but it would be encouraging and worth noting if they elect to bring in a capable veteran or use an earlier draft pick on a running back. Myles Gaskin never proved to be worthy of a primary role, and it would be a shock if they didn’t make significant moves for the position.

Mike Gesicki won’t want to be a franchise tag, but that’s likely the best outcome in fantasy terms. Tua Tagovailoa relied on his tight ends last year more than any other team, so Gesicki remains a lock for a Top-10 fantasy season and potentially a career-best.

The outlook for DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle remains unchanged. Waddle’s 104 catches as a rookie cement him as a fantasy starter and Parker hangs on as the No. 2 that offers only marginal fantasy value, and that’s only if he can remain healthy after missing six games in 2021.

Like most teams turning the soil on coaching, there are reasons for optimism in the first year of HC Mike McDaniel and OC Frank Smith. But it is unlikely any of the fantasy prospects will see any significant leap in fantasy points.

2022 NFL coaching changes: Carolina Panthers

Can a once laughingstock reshape the Carolina offense in 2022?

Once tabbed as a budding offensive mastermind, former New York Giants head coach Ben McAdoo’s star burned out nearly as fast as his meteoric ascent.

In 2022, after spending the past two years as in Jacksonville and Dallas, respectively, McAdoo was hired by the Carolina Panthers to serve as offensive coordinator. He will replace Joe Brady and his interim replacement, Jeff Nixon, after Brady was surprisingly fired during the season.

A brief history trip to refresh how we ended up here … McAdoo was a promising OC under Tom Coughlin and ultimately replaced him as head coach in 2016. The first-year leader would see his team finish 11-5 and get bumped by the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round. His sophomore season really couldn’t have gone any worse. The Giants would start 0-5 in a chaos-marred campaign that culminated with McAdoo’s dismissal after a 2-12 record following a game in which he snapped Eli Manning’s 210-game consecutive-start streak by a benching in favor of Geno Smith.

It was so bad that McAdoo didn’t coach at all in 2018 or ’19. He reemerged in Jacksonville as a quarterbacks coach in 2020 and spent the 2021 season as an offensive consultant in Dallas under his former coach Mike McCarthy.

Coaching tendencies

McAdoo’s system is a West Coast offense at its core, and his teeth were cut in that same offensive design while coaching on Jim Haslett’s staff in 2004. That year, the offensive coordinator was none other than McCarthy, whom he followed to San Francisco and again to Green Bay.

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His positional coaching has primarily involved tight ends and quarterbacks, which cannot be overlooked as aspects that helped Matt Rhule hire McAdoo. Not only are those two exceedingly important positions in a West Coast system, getting this quarterback situation righted in a hurry is paramount if Rhule wants to coach the Panthers beyond 2022.

Staples of McAdoo’s system include passing to running backs, involving tight ends who can challenge down the field, and racking up yards after the catch from the wideouts.

We all know Christian McCaffrey is among the best pass-catching backs in the league. Tight end/H-back Tommy Tremble offers plenty to work with as receiving outlet, and D.J. Moore’s ability after the catch is arguably his strongest trait. Veteran tight end Ian Thomas renewed with Carolina, securing a position of uncertainty within this offense.

The most dangerous of West Coast offenses have incorporated a reliable vertical threat and a dynamic chain-mover — both can be found Carolina wideouts Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall Jr., respectively. Not too many teams are three deep with such clear distribution of attributes.

In 2014, calling plays for the Giants, McAdoo’s offense finished 18th in pass-run ratio, throwing 57.5 percent of the time. The following season, the result was 11th with 60.7 percent of the snaps being passing attempts. Expect a balanced approach in an ideal situation.

Personnel changes

The Panthers enter the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine week sitting 16th in salary cap space, or $10.1 million under the limit. Restructuring a few contracts should permit some wiggle room in free agency, but we’re looking at a team that feels it’s closer to a retooling than full rebuild. Following several quality draft additions in the last few years, this is the fourth-youngest roster in the NFL, and a huge portion of Carolina’s success will be tied to how much McAdoo can coax out of them.

Rumblings have suggested McCaffrey could be traded. Until something happens, presume there won’t be any serious offseason moves from this backfield.

The offensive line will need to be addressed. Center Matt Paradis and a pair of guards, John Miller and Trenton Scott, are set to become free agents. QB Cam Newton is unrestricted but could return to compete for a starting job. He’s not a great system fit, though. The defense is in a much different situation with several key players, especially in the secondary, scheduled to hit free agency.

Fantasy football takeaway

It all comes down to Sam Darnold at quarterback. He’s in the fifth year of his rookie deal, which guarantees him more than $18 million — actually a bargain if he can be coached into a starting-caliber passer. To date, we’ve seen hardly anything from him to be confident in suggesting Darnold will take a significant step forward. This is a poor rookie QB class, and the free-agent market won’t be much better. Could Carolina swing a deal for someone currently under contract, such as Jimmy Garoppolo, and upgrade the position? Perhaps. It will be tough based on the salary cap situation, so safe money says the Panthers open with Darnold as the Week 1 starter. His fantasy worth is basically locked in undraftable territory.

McCaffrey has become a major injury liability, which dramatically alters his fantasy football value. Will his stock tumble out of Round 1? Probably not. The veteran is a difference-maker when healthy, so gamer will have to take a leap of faith when investing. If he’s on the field, CMC is an RB1.

Moore stands to be the most impactful receiver of the lot. While a notable second-year leap from Marshall may be in store, it would likely require an injury of lengthy duration to Moore before that were to happen to the extent of being a breakout. Anderson is a capable deep threat and has offered little more, outside of one year in his career. Moore is a fringe WR1 or ideal No. 2 in PPR, whereas the other two are late-round roster-fillers in conventional formats.

At tight end, Thomas returning on a new deal likely entrenches him as the starter. He has yet to live up to the hype surrounding his physical traits. Tremble should be granted every opportunity to show during the offseason program he can be the guy, but it’s probable the veteran Thomas will stand in the way of an expanded role. Neither is more than a flier candidate.

Overall, the addition of McAdoo may not be the splash move fantasy footballers had hoped for at OC. He is, however, a veteran coach from a proven system who has at least shown capable of commanding a quality offense. Some coaches are just terrible at being “the guy” but thrive as a coordinator, and that’s shaping up to be McAdoo’s character arc.

2022 NFL coaching changes: Las Vegas Raiders

Can Josh McDaniels import the Patriot Way to the Raiders’ offense?

Well. That was quite the year.

The Raiders reached the NFL playoffs as the No. 8 seed against all odds. The Jon Gruden situation became the talk of the league after private emails were found to contain troubling language and content, and led to his release. That alone would have been enough to send any NFL team reeling but it was followed by the tragedy surrounding Henry Ruggs 156 mph drunken crash that took the life of an innocent woman.

Mix in losing the highest-paid No. 2 back of Kenyan Drake and Darren Waller switching from elite, unstoppable tight end to mostly injured and all but forgotten. The Raiders were playing uphill after the initial month of the season. They now turn to Josh McDaniels as the new head coach, luring him from his nine-year stretch as the Patriots offensive coordinator. He, in turn, tabbed the New England Wide Receiver Coach of Mick Lombardi to become the offensive coordinator. Make no mistake – this is McDaniel’s offense, and he brings one of the lengthiest resumes in the NFL as an offensive coordinator.

McDaniels was a position coach with the Patriots from 2001 to 2005 and then spent three years as their offensive coordinator. He left to become the head coach at the Broncos for two years but then was fired and became the Rams offensive coordinator for 2011 before jumping back to the Patriots, where he’s directed the offensive for the last ten years. That’s a total of 14 years as an offensive coordinator – he’ll have a controlling hand in the offense.

The move to Las Vegas comes as a minor surprise. The assumption was that when McDaniels accepted the head coach job at the Colts in 2018 and then withdrew the acceptance, that it was about him remaining in New England to eventually replace Bill Belichick as the head coach. This is the first time that the Patriots haven’t had Tom Brady or Josh McDaniels in 22 years.

Coaching tendencies

McDaniels served as the offensive coordinator for three Super Bowl championships. But he was a previous head coach for the Broncos and that didn’t even last two full years before he was fired. He arrived in 2009 and went 8-8 with quarterback Kyle Orton, running backs Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, and wideout Brandon Marshall as the lone offensive star.

In 2010, Marshall left and McDaniels was dismissed after the Broncos fell to 3-9, on the way to a 4-12 finish. He later said that while he knew football, he wasn’t as versed in people and controlling an organization. The Broncos opened 6-0 in 2009 but ended 2-8. That poor showing continued in 2010 and McDaniels was involved in another “spygate” situation when the Broncos were caught filming a 49ers practice in London. McDaniels and the Broncos were both fined $50,000 and he was fired a month later.

He knows offense. While his tenure at the Patriots relied onTom Brady for all but two seasons, he adapted to both a running quarterback in 2020 and then a rookie pocket passer last season. McDaniels rarely used any elite receivers other than Rob Gronkowski (2012-2018) and Randy Moss (2007-2008). Even with Brady, his offenses usually ended up around No. 10 to No. 15 in passing yards in most years. That fell apart in 2020 when Cam Newton and company only threw for 3043 yards (No. 31) but the rookie Mac Jones brought them back up to No. 14 with 4,028 pass yards.

McDaniels has long relied on a sound-rushing offense. In almost every year, the Pats would turn in Top-5 stats in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns. But invariably, it came from a committee approach. McDaniels carried that over to the Broncos with Moreno and Buckhalter. They did ride the hot hand in many cases, but the Patriots offense is complicated and involves all of the offense without relying on a single player other than the quarterback.

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Last season was a case in point. Damien Williams (202-929-15) was the primary, but Brandon Bolden and Rhamondre Stevenson were both constantly involved even after James White was lost. Even though the quarterback was a rookie, Mac Jones spread the ball around to his wideouts with Jakobi Meyers as the primary with 83 catches for 866 yards but Kendrick Bourne also caught 55 passes for 800 yards and five scores. Hunter Henry also was second only to Meyers with 75 targets, and he led the team with nine touchdowns.

McDaniels prefers an accurate, smart quarterback, a committee backfield with a pass-catching third-down back, reliance on a tight end at least for red-zone receptions if not more, and a diverse set of receivers mixed and matched according to game situation. He’s been very consistent and it continues to work because it is so diverse and complicated – so many players are involved and it adjusts to the situation so it is harder to prepare to defend.

This will be the Patriots/McDaniels scheme. New England wide receivers coach Mick Lombardi follows him to become the new offensive coordinator. Carmen Bricillo also transfers over to remain an offensive line coach.

This effective and well-tested scheme now is applied to a passing attack that bounced around between No. 13 and No. 24 in quarterback fantasy points for all four years of Jon Gruden’s tenure. The Raiders were Top-5 in 2019 and 2020 in rushing attempts before plummeting last year and were usually Top-10 throwing to running backs, including No. 1 just last year with 118 completions to the position.

McDaniels arrives to a roster that has a strong tight end and a similar set of average wideouts.

Personnel changes

McDaniels did a great job last year adjusting the passing scheme to a rookie pocket passer, and he inherits a capable Derek Carr who comes off a career-best 4,804 passing yards with 23 touchdowns. Carr was on fire to start 2021 before Gruden left and Ruggs literally crashed. He’s in the final year of his current contract so how well he meshes with the new offensive scheme will be critical to him being extended or allowed to hit free agency in 2023.

Josh Jacobs is also in the final year of his rookie contract, and he fits nicely into the primary ball carrier role that always exists in McDaniel’s scheme though he’s less likely to crack the Top-10 for fantasy running backs in a committee backfield that will likely use someone else for the bulk of receptions. Kenyan Drake was signed to a shockingly lucrative contract last year as the No. 2 back, but he was lost to injury in Week 12 and had only a marginal impact. He’s expected to either restructure his deal or be released as his salary jumps from $3 million to $8.25 million this year which would make him among the top ten highest-paid backs in the league. He could fit in as the No. 2 back and the scheme certainly calls for one (or two).

There is also speculation that James White could show up, especially if Drake is released.

Darren Waller fits into the scheme well, though he comes off a surprisingly down year. He was the No. 2 fantasy tight end for 2019 and 2020. His stock remains high in the new offense.

The expectation is that the Raiders use one of their early picks on a speedy wideout to replace Henry Ruggs, and that could end up as their current No. 22 pick in the first round. Hunter Renfrow evolved into the primary receiver last year and his slot role is very popular in McDaniels’ offense, so he should remain a strong fantasy play. None of the rest of the wideouts broke 50 catches or 600 yards, so there could be other movements in the draft or free agency to upgrade an otherwise mediocre set of wideouts. Then again, that’s what McDaniels was given in most years running the Pats offense.

Fantasy football takeaway

The fantasy fortunes of the Raiders’ offense won’t likely see a leap, at least not in the first year of the installation of McDaniel’s scheme. Derek Carr is a capable quarterback and very much in the mold of a smart pocket passer that thrives in the scheme. This is a contract year for him as well, so he’ll need to give confidence that he’s the guy for McDaniel.

The backfield won’t change too much. Josh Jacobs is also in a contract year and has plenty of motivation to do well, but he’s more likely to see fewer receptions after jumping from 33 to 54 last year. That also reflected the loss of Kenyan Drake in the latter half of the season. Drake could return to that receiving role as the change-of-pace back, but he’ll need to take a hefty pay cut to remain. And McDaniels could end up bringing on James White or some other back as well. He won’t be happy with just one active back. He usually relies on at least two if not three in every game, so the fantasy prospects are not encouraging here, but Jacobs should hold onto his Top-15 level or a bit better.

Darren Walls was shockingly ineffective in many games for 2021 after being elite for two straight seasons. His stock should remain high and any concerns about him are more regarding the decline last year than what his role would be in the new scheme. Walls is well suited for a “Gronkowski” role.

Installing a new offense usually takes more time with the wide receivers, though Carr is capable veteran and the current receivers have chemistry with him. Hunter Renfrow’s dramatic improvement in the second half of the 2021 season is more likely to continue than to decline. Chances are best that he’ll be the clear No. 1 wideout and that the rest of the receivers remain mediocre. If they draft a speedster in an early round, he’ll play an immediate role but will be very unlikely to produce consistent, notable fantasy stats every week.

2022 NFL coaching changes: Detroit Lions

Will Detroit’s third new offensive coordinator in as many years be the lucky charm?

Following an 0-8-1 start to the 2021 NFL season in Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell‘s first year as the team’s leader, offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn was relieved of his duties. Campbell took over the play-calling chores the rest of the way, but he found help in tight ends coach Ben Johnson receiving an expanded role that included being the passing game coordinator.

After Week 18, Campbell officially parted ways with Lynn and ultimately promoted Johnson to offensive coordinator. The 35-year-old Johnson worked closely with Campbell in the second half of last season, which helped make this a natural transition, especially considering Campbell’s background as an NFL tight end and positional coach. The duo also worked together in Miami from 2012-15.

Coaching tendencies

Well, that’s going to be tough to nail down since Johnson has yet to call plays. First of all, Campbell has yet to publicly state whether he or Johnson will call plays in 2022.

So what can we safely surmise?

Given Johnson’s extensive history as a tight ends coach, it’s not a huge jump in logical procession to presume we will continue to see a heavy dose of T.J. Hockenson. Given the raw talent of running back D’Andre Swift, count on his role remaining mostly stable as long as he remains healthy. Johnson also has history coaching wide receivers, and he assisted Campbell in designing plays as the season went along. It helped translate to improved offensive play — relatively speaking — to close out the year.

Another aspect we can count on is commitment to running the ball and being a tough team. There’s no chance someone as dedicated to these tenets as Campbell would hire anyone to the contrary. This won’t be a team that throws 40 to 50 times a game with consistency, provided the defense takes steps forward. Last year, the Lions ranked 13th in pass-run ratio, throwing 593 times at a rate of 58.1 percent of the offensive snaps, or 34.9 times per outing. When you lose all but three games, that sort of thing is going to happen, and it’s not even as lopsided as it could have been.

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Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown gushed about Johnson’s abilities and football IQ during an interview with the Detroit Free Press last month:

“His attention to detail when he was installing these plays in the red zone,” St. Brown said. “He presents really well. He’s super confident up there. He knows what he’s talking about. You can just hear it in his voice. So, I just remember him going up there, I think it was early in the year, installing red-zone plays, and right from then on, I knew he was a smart, special dude.”

Of St. Brown’s Lions rookie record 90 grabs, 63 came while Johnson was more involved in the offense. The North Carolina alum was a walk-on quarterback from 2004-07, double-majoring in mathematics and computer science, so he’s obviously a heady guy. Hockenson praised Johnson’s ability to incorporate the opinions of players into his game plans.

Being on the younger side of things and coming up as an NFL coach in Joe Philbin’s system, which was a West Coast-based offense, look for flexible designs. Presumably, we’ll see staples of this system with a modified approach that not only fits today’s NFL but is tailored to his player’s skill sets. In that scenario, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him install something closer to a Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan offense — run-based, play-action passing with RPO elements thrown in to keep defenses guessing. The days of a prototypical West Coast offense are likely dead and gone as most teams utilize it as a foundation on which to build using modern architecture, if you will.

Personnel changes

The Lions currently have $20.1 million in cap space heading into free agency, but that number could improve through restructuring or extending some players. The team is young — like really young. Only Cincinnati (24.46) has a younger average age than Detroit’s 25.49. That means the offense doesn’t have many free agents, especially of consequence. Pass-rushing outside linebacker Charles Harris and safety Tracy Walker are the only UFAs on defense who’ll be addressed with priority.

Key areas of need include wide receiver, linebacker, safety, quarterback, and edge rusher. With a solid crop of a midrange WRs available in free agency, in addition to a few true No. 1s, the Lions have plenty of options to help build around St. Brown.

Expect the No. 2 overall pick to be spent on a pass rusher, and either the 32nd or 34th picks can be used on a receiver, if desired.

Fantasy football takeaway

Jared Goff returns as the starting quarterback for Year 2, although he could serve as a bridge if Detroit snags a replacement in this weak draft class. Even with a bolstered receiving corps and more continuity along the offensive line, Goff’s physical limitations keep him soundly locked into the lower half of fantasy backups in traditional formats.

The 2021 tandem of Swift and Jamaal Williams should return intact, but it won’t be a total shock if the Lions explore replacing the latter. His contract is fair, so both likely come back to man the backfield’s one-two punch. Swift has durability concerns but electrifying attributes and offers RB1 potential. Williams is more of an insurance policy and/or roster depth with TD-centric deployment in mind.

Unless the Lions spend huge money for someone like Davante Adams, Chris Godwin or Allen Robinson, St. Brown should be the primary target among the receivers as a chain-mover who can play all over the field and specializes in precision route running. Another year building chemistry with Goff — as the NFL slows down around the USC product — cannot hurt St. Brown’s chances of picking up where he left off. His ultimate draft stock comes down to how the team addresses the glaring positional need.

Hockenson is entrenched as the starter but needs to stay healthy and find ways to overcome extra defensive attention. If all works as planned, he should be a top-flight fantasy option in PPR scoring.

2022 NFL coaching changes: Jacksonville Jaguars

What to expect from the Jaguars under Doug Pederson.

A 2-11 stint mired in controversy led to the firing of Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer just 13 games into his NFL coaching debut. The Jags pressed the reset button and began a coaching search for his replacement. Several names swirled the rumor mill, and the decision ultimately led to former Philadelphia Eagles head man Doug Pederson returning to the sidelines for the 2022 season.

Coaching tendencies

The former NFL quarterback turned coach went 42-37-1 in 80 games with the Eagles, famously winning Super Bowl LIII in an upset over the New England Patriots. Pederson’s Eagles made the playoffs in three of his five years.

Pederson broke into professional coaching as quality control coach for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2009. He coached quarterbacks for a few years and went on to become the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs under Andy Reid.

One immediate difference between Pederson and his predecessor is demeanor. The Jaguars now have a player-friendly coach who knows how to push the right motivational buttons rather than attempt to dictate every facet to the Nth degree. On the heels of a catastrophic year, a good ole boost in team morale arrives along with Pederson.

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Pederson fully embraces his roots in a West Coast-based system but has spread elements. When it comes to actually calling plays, Pederson is unafraid to take chances (see: Philly Special) and looks to establish game plans based around exploiting matchups. He’s an aggressive yet balanced play-caller but is even better at designing the call sheet.

Absolutely every single aspect of Pederson’s system finding success in Jacksonville centers on what he can get out of Trevor Lawrence. The 2021 NFL Draft’s first overall choice started hot in his pro debut and sputtered to one of the least inspiring rookie performances among highly touted freshman passers. In Lawrence’s defense, he was surrounded by chaos and limited offensive talent.

It will be Pederson’s chief task to get Lawrence on the right footing. Being a former quarterback himself, Pederson’s experiences as a Super Bowl-winning coach, 13-year player, and developer of young quarterbacks has the Jaguars feeling like they made the best choice in what was a crowded field of viable candidates.

The coaching staff is rounding out with prominent hirings of Press Taylor to be the offensive coordinator and long-time NFL coach Mike McCoy being tabbed as Lawrence’s positional coach. According to Pederson’s introductory press conference, he’s expected to handle the play-calling duties. Taylor’s role will focus on game planning and likely serving as the passing game coordinator. He was on Indianapolis’ staff last year as a senior offensive assistant and previously was a member of Pederson’s coaching team in Philly as a QBs coach, among other roles.

In Pederson’s five years coaching Philadelphia, his offenses were mostly balanced:

Rank by highest percentage of passing attempts

2016: 17th
2017: 22nd
2018: 9th
2019: 19th
2020: 11th

The West Coast offense thrives when it can remain balanced enough to keep defenses off-guard, which creates reliable play-action passing, the ability to successfully run bootlegs, and effective zone-read options.

Play-calling tendencies are complex, so it’s not an automatic transcendence to a different year or franchise, but we have a pretty good sample size from Pederson’s time with the Eagles that didn’t feature wild swings in style. An example of what would create disparity to the extreme is a poor defense tends to produce more passing attempts than what might be desired, whereas a team that can consistently jump out to a lead usually is closer to even-keel, if not run-heavy. Considering Pederson’s teams were never more pass-happy than 9th and no worse than the 11th-lowest ratio, his consistency is evident.

Personnel changes

First and foremost, it all comes down to protecting Lawrence. The Jaguars have three 2021 starting offensive linemen scheduled to enter free agency. Look for ’21 second-rounder Walker Little to replace Cam Robinson at left tackle. Ben Bartch was rock-solid filling in for A.J. Cann, a long-term starter who played only four games last year due to injury. With Cann facing free agency, look for Bartch to enter as the starting right guard.

From the skill position side of the equation, Jacksonville has a strong running game to rely on with James Robinson and Travis Etienne (foot) expected to be in the mix to an unknown degree. The former is proven; the latter talented enough to command respect. Both can contribute on all three downs.

WR DJ Chark Jr. is set to become a free agent as he looks to rebound from a fractured ankle. His sophomore year positioned the LSU product as a potential WR1 entering Year 3, but Chark’s 21-game absence over four years has made him a liability. He also is largely a deep threat and should be a WR2. The free-agent pool at the position is quite deep, which suggests he’s on the way out the door.

Tight end is a major area of need, especially in this offensive system. Look for the Jaguars — a team with deep coffers — make a strong bid for one of the top players available on the market, such as Dalton Schultz on a long-term pact or Zach Ertz as a short-term stopgap to reunite with Pederson.

Otherwise, the Jaguars are in fantastic shape to do as they please in free agency. This is the fifth-youngest team with an average age of 25.71 and has 51 players under contract. The defense doesn’t face much in the way of worrisome personnel losses, so it will be closer to retooling than rebuilding.

Only two teams have more cap space, and Jacksonville is an increasingly attractive location as Pederson looks to bring stability to a team with one of the most promising young passers since Peyton Manning entered the league. And to sweeten the pot for perspective incoming free agents, Florida doesn’t have a state income tax.

Fantasy football takeaway

There’s not going to be a great deal of fantasy contributors to discuss until the offense fills out a little more at wideout and tight end. We need to see more playmakers in the picture before anyone can suggest Lawrence will dramatically ascend based on maturation or Pederson’s tutelage alone.

WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault had all of the chances in the world in 2021 to shine, and neither player was able to live up to even the most modest of preseason expectations. It’s not even a guarantee Jones will remain on the roster. Due to bonus structuring, he’ll cost $2.71 million in dead money to trade him post-June 1, but trading Jones after that date is nearly double. Cutting him before or after 6/1 nearly doubles the dead cap space. At 32, it’s unlikely anyone will trade for him coming off a down year.

The underacheiving Shenault remains on his rookie deal, so the likeliest scenario sees the Jags making a big-money push for a legitimate No. 1 wideout, such as Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson or possibly Davante Adams should Aaron Rodgers retire.

As mentioned, tight end remains unresolved, but the history of Pederson’s offense points to a strong fantasy contributor just waiting for a nameplate to be stitched onto a jersey.

We’ll revisit the fantasy football outlook as player movement settles after the upcoming draft.

2022 NFL coaching change tracker

Fantasy-ranked depth charts for NFL teams

Note: Red font denotes a new coaching hire.

Team	Exp	Head Coach	Exp	Offensive Coordinator	Exp	Defensive Coordinator
Arizona Cardinals	3	Kliff Kingsbury	3	Kingsbury calls plays	3	Vance Joseph
Atlanta Falcons	1	Arthur Smith	1	Smith calls plays	1	Dean Pees
Baltimore Ravens	14	John Harbaugh	3	Greg Roman	0
Buffalo Bills	5	Sean McDermott	4	Brian Daboll	4	Leslie Frazier
Carolina Panthers	2	Matt Rhule	0	Ben McAdoo (JAC QB)	2	Phil Snow
Chicago Bears	0		0		0
Cincinnati Bengals	3	Zac Taylor	3	Taylor calls plays	3	Lou Anarumo
Cleveland Browns	2	Kevin Stefanski	2	Alex Van Pelt	2	Joe Woods
Dallas Cowboys	2	Mike McCarthy	3	Kellen Moore	1	Dan Quinn
Denver Broncos	0		0		0
Detroit Lions	1	Dan Campbell	1	Anthony Lynn	1	Aaron Glenn
Green Bay Packers	3	Matt LaFleur	3	Nathaniel Hackett	1	Joe Barry
Houston Texans	0		0		0
Indianapolis Colts	4	Frank Reich	1	Marcus Brady	4	Matt Eberflus
Jacksonville Jaguars	0		0		0
Kansas City Chiefs	9	Andy Reid	4	Eric Bieniemy	3	Steve Spagnuolo
Los Angeles Chargers	1	Brandon Staley	1	Joe Lombardi	1	Renaldo Hill
Los Angeles Rams	5	Sean McVay	2	Kevin O’Connell	1	Raheem Morris
Las Vegas Raiders	0		0		0
Miami Dolphins	0		0		0
Minnesota Vikings	0		0		0
New England Patriots	22	Bill Belichick	10	Josh Daniels	3	Steve Belichick
New Orleans Saints			13	Pete Carmichael	7	Dennis Allen
New York Giants	0		0		0
New York Jets	1	Robert Saleh	1	Mike LaFleur	1	Jeff Ulbrich
Philadelphia Eagles	1	Nick Sirianni	1	Shane Steichen	1	Jonathan Gannon
Pittsburgh Steelers	15	Mike Tomlin	1	Matt Canada	6	Keith Butler
Seattle Seahawks	12	Pete Carroll	1	Shane Waldron	4	Ken Norton
San Francisco 49ers	5	Kyle Shanahan	1	Mike McDaniel	1	DeMeco Ryans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	Bruce Arians	3	Byron Leftwich	3	Todd Bowles
Tennessee Titans	4	Mike Vrabel	1	Todd Downing	1	Shane Bowen
Washington Football Team	2	Ron Rivera	2	Scott Turner	2	Jack Del Rio

2021 NFL coaching changes: Houston Texans

Veteran NFL coach David Culley is finally a head man, but will he have a quarterback?

The Houston Texans parted ways with Bill O’Brien during the 2020 season after an 0-4 start, leading to Romeo Crennel finishing the year as the interim head coach. O’Brien also served as the general manager, a position that was filled by Nick Caserio, whose most recent position was the director of player personnel for the New England Patriots.

Caserio took his time to find O’Brien’s replacement as head coach, ultimately settling on 65-year-old David Culley. This will be his first season as an NFL head honcho, and the move was a curious one. Culley chose to retain offensive coordinator Tim Kelly. Culley will turn the defense over to Lovie Smith.

From 1978 through the 1993 season, Culley coached quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers at various collegiate stops, topping out as the OC at UTEP during the 1989-90 campaigns. He made the leap to the pro ranks in 1994 and hasn’t looked back.

From ’94 through 2016, Culley predominantly coached wide receivers. The glaring coaching-tree connection during the entirety of Culley’s NFL tenure is to Andy Reid. The latter hired Culley in 1999 when Reid became Philadelphia’s head coach, and the pair stayed together through 2016 with the Kansas City Chiefs. Culley coached wide receivers the entire time, among other roles as a senior confidant and even assistant head coach.

Culley moved on to coach in Buffalo as the quarterbacks coach for the 2017 and ’18 seasons prior to a two-year stint on John Harbaugh’s staff in Baltimore (assistant head coach, wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator). Both Harbaugh and Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott served under Reid in Philadelphia.

Coaching tendencies

David Culley

Culley’s experience in a West Coast system is obviously extensive after all of the aforementioned time coaching on Reid’s staff. Culley is known for being a player’s coach but not a pushover.

Upon taking the job in Houston, he talked about emphasizing the fundamentals of ball security and discipline on offense, as well as being tenacious on defense — “make people lose their wills.”

Perhaps most important of all, he’s the “anti-O’Brien” as a leader. Don’t expect to see brash arguments with star veterans or a coach who will exhaust players with micromanaging and the like.

Love Smith

The veteran defensive schemer also has considerable experience as an NFL and collegiate head coach. Smith spent the past five years as Illinois’ top teacher, and he continues to employ the once-beloved “Tampa 2” defense.

The heart of the scheme is to keep offenses in front of you by playing a Cover 2 base 4-3 (two safeties in a deeper outside zones) with an inside linebacker covering the middle of the field and having a major role in pass coverage. It requires a heady, athletic middle ‘backer to run the show, along with the ability to pass rush with four linemen.

This system is largely outdated with the major influx in spread systems and emphasis on dynamic slot receivers that can “out-athlete” even the most impressive linebackers. Sure, the position has become faster and smaller to keep up with slot receivers, but this defense has fallen out of favor in recent years as we’ve seen a rise in “big nickel” schemes that place an athletic safety or hybrid corner on the field in the slot.

Other factors working against the Tampa 2 include the revolution of tight ends to become more involved in the passing game, and rules changes that favor aerial attacks.

The 2020 Texans defense, under DC Anthony Weaver, was nothing short of awful. The rankings (1 being better than 32) are as follows:

Points allowed: 27th
Takeaways: 32nd
Offensive yards allowed: 30th
Passing yards allowed: 24th
Rushing yards allowed: 32nd
Sacks generated: 17th

It mostly can only go up, especially when it comes to takeaways. Only nine total turnovers forced in 2020 ranks historically pathetic as the second fewest in league history over 16 games. Losing J.J. Watt probably won’t help, although the Texans managed to be as bad as they were with him last season.

Tim Kelly

Given the offensive designs will remain in the hands of Kelly, we’ll focus on his system more so than Culley’s imprints.

In 2019, Houston ran the ball 44.8 percent of the offensive snaps, tying for the ninth-highest rate. That was in an offense with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Carlos Hyde as the primary skill weapons for quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Last season, Kelly’s offense ran 38.7 percent of the time, which was tied for the fourth-lowest rate, after trading away Hopkins for running back David Johnson. Much of this can be pinned on poor defensive play.

According to Sharp Football Stats, the 2019 Texans operated out of a base three-wide offensive alignment with the 14th-highest frequency (64 percent). The team rushed the ball 37 percent of the time from this 11-personnel groupings at a success rate of 54 percent. Last year’s offense operated at the same 64 percent of snaps from three-wide sets, but the ground game’s success rate fell to 43 percent on only 29 percent of those plays being rushing attempts.

Why such obvious differences? It can’t be all personnel or on-field circumstances, right? The most pertinent reasoning is super simplistic: Kelly didn’t call a single play in 2019. He was an offensive coordinator in name-only, and O’Brien handled the in-game play-calling duties prior to 2020. Kelly had a large hand in the weekly designs and concepts during the ’19 season.

To Kelly’s credit, he learned on the job, in theory, and has an opportunity to right any play-calling wrongs from 2020. He will have a 43-year coaching veteran, and one who has been in the NFL for 27 seasons, as a sounding board in Culley. There certainly could be more elements of a classic West Coast design in store for the 2021 calls.

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Personnel changes

Impending notable free agents on offense: Wide receiver Will Fuller. He was leading the way for this hodgepodge passing game that moved on from Nuk Hopkins prior to the 2020 season. Fuller’s well-documented injury history and current suspension for PEDs (one game left) will drive his market value. Even with Houston being a modest $19.78 million under a projected $185 million cap, it appears to be highly unlikely he will return in 2021.

Some merit exists to the notion of placing the franchise tag on Fuller. It will cost $15.808 million, a roughly $5 million raise for a guy whose availability has been his biggest enemy. Factor in the next point on Deshaun Watson wanting out, and it’s unclear what value Houston has in paying up for a guy one banana peel away from another catastrophic injury.

Watson has repeatedly told the organization he has no interest in playing for this team, and his camp has asked for a trade. It seems improbable to find a willing suitor to give up the compensation necessary to not only make this viable from Houston’s end but also have the money to absorb Watson’s hefty contract.

Houston cut running back Duke Johnson to save $5 million in 2021 cap space, and it’s not out of the question David Johnson could be released or at least restructured.

WR Brandin Cooks has a $12 million cap figure and could be released or traded without financial penalty. There’s reason to restructure his deal, too, so all options, including paying him as is, remain on the table.

This team doesn’t currently have a center on the roster after releasing Nick Martin, and versatile guard Senio Kelemete also was a cap casualty.

Fantasy football takeaway

Everything hinges on what happens with Watson’s standoff. It’s hard to see him going anywhere, but there’s then the question about whether he’s willing to sit out the entire year and not collect a check to get his way. All eyes belong on the quarterback.

We’ll do a wholesale review of the offense once the major components are locked into place. Since David Johnson, Cooks and Fuller all are up in the air to some degree, this team could look radically different in just a matter of weeks.

2021 NFL coaching changes: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers replace both coordinators for 2021

Coaching changes are usually related to a bad season and a team heading “in a different direction.” Not so for the 49ers, whose success opened their coaching ranks up to be raided by other teams looking to replicate their success. While head coach Kyle Shanahan remains for his fifth season, the 49ers lost defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the Jets as their new head coach. And passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur left to join Saleh as the Jets’ new offensive coordinator.

Both changes are not likely to result in any significant changes to the offense or defense since both were promotions of position coaches already in place within the existing system.

Shanahan may be the head coach, but he installed his offense after spending ten years as an offensive coordinator for four different teams. He calls the plays and controls the offense. The 49ers were decimated by injuries last year but the same offense ranked No. 2 in points and No. 4 in yardage for 2019 when they went to the Super Bowl. No need for changes to what works well when the roster is healthy.

While Shanahan continues his firm hold on the offense, Bobby Slowick was promoted to passing game specialist after spending the last two years as the offensive assistant. Mike McDaniel was elevated from the run game coordinator to the titled offensive coordinator, though again – Shanahan calls the plays. McDaniel spent the last four seasons with the 49ers as their run game coordinator (2018-2020) and run game specialist (2017).

McDaniel spent the last 11 years in the NFL coaching running backs and wideouts before becoming the offensive assistant in Atlanta (2015-2016). He’s not there to change anything, but to learn and help Shanahan maintain one of the most diverse and productive offenses in the NFL when healthy.

The loss of Saleh has a more significant bearing. With Shanahan more involved in the offense, Saleh was in control of the defense for the last four years and was a very hot head coaching candidate. The 49ers’ defense is an elite unit when healthy and was the biggest reason why they advanced to the Super Bowl in 2019.

The 49ers promoted their inside linebackers coach up to being the offensive coordinator. DeMeco Ryans was a ten-year veteran of the NFL as a linebacker for the Texans and Eagles. Since he retired as a player in 2016, he’s been with the 49ers organization. He served as the defensive quality control coach (2017), and inside linebackers coach (2018-2020).

Ryans was a Defensive Player of the Year at Alabama and a First-Team All-SEC as a senior. He was the AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2006. He’s been successful at every level and job that he’s ever held in football. As the inside linebackers coach, he’s credited for developing Pro Bowler Fred Warner. Ryans is considered one of the sharpest minds and his quick ascension to defensive coordinator for a very talented defense shows the confidence that the 49ers have in him.

At 36 years old, Ryans is the youngest defensive coordinator in the NFL and within that, the least experienced. But he’s impressed in his four short years as a coach in his ability to development and communicate with players. With the entirety of his four years as an NFL coach being under Saleh, there’s no reason to expect any material changes to the scheme since it is the only one that he’s ever coached.

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Personnel changes

The offense struggled with injured players in 2020, so just having a healthy squad will make a tremendous difference. None of the top players are free agents this year other then LT Trent Williams, CB Richard Sherman and DE Solomon Thomas.

The 49ers own the 1.12, 2.11 and 3.39 picks over the first two days of the NFL draft. That 1.12 pick will be the key to the draft. The expectation is that they use that for either a cornerback or edge rusher to replace the potential loss of Sherman and Thomas. There is also a chance that they opt for a quarterback since they should be in striking distance of landing a Top-5 rookie in a quarterback-rich draft.

Despite rumors, the 49ers appear likely to stick with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback though he may be grooming his own replacement. The 49ers’ offensive scheme has been very diverse and involves a high number of players. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson should return as the primary running backs but the offense hasn’t produced a top back in years and that won’t change barring a surprising change.

George Kittle returns as the only lock to be a top fantasy option. The 49ers used high draft picks to select Brandon Aiyuk (2020 – 1.25) and Deebo Samuel (2019 – 2.04) but there hasn’t been any wideout to stay healthy, let alone dominate targets.

Fantasy football takeaway

The defense will miss Robert Saleh and it is surprising that the 49ers went with such a young, minimally-experienced defensive coordinator but the roster has plenty of talent and the scheme won’t change.

On offense, the plays are called by Kyle Shanahan so the same complicated and diverse scheme remains in place. Again – player health has to improve after a disaster for 2020. Kittle will continue to be the No. 2 fantasy tight end behind Travis Kelce. But the backfield will remain a mess to rely on with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Jerick McKinnon set to return and may be joined by another free agent or draft pick. The backfield will continue to produce well in total, but lack consistency and reliability from the individual backs involved.

The most interesting feature of the offense will be the progress made by Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk as the starting wideouts. Both have flashed big-time ability and yet battled injuries and inconsistent play by the quarterbacks.

The 49ers’ offense needs consistency by the quarterback. They can have that if Garoppolo stays healthy, but if they draft a quarterback early, then they are setting up for 2022 and an eventual quarterback change. The scheme remains the same and unfortunately, that’s been almost impossible to rely on individual players outside of Kittle.