Can San Diego State Be A No. 1 Seed?

What happens if the Aztecs keep on winning?

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San Diego State is a 1 seed. Can they stay there?


Contact/Follow  @aztecbreakdown & @MWCwire

Recently, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports released a new bracket projection and in it, San Diego State was the No. 1 seed in the South region. Aztec fans are not shy about telling you how good their team is, and the national media is starting to jump on the band wagon.

The first question that must be asked is, has SDSU earned a No. 1 seed at this point. I’d say they have.

They are 15-0, which isn’t easy regardless of who you play. They are ranked No. 1 in the NET, the system the committee uses to help seed teams. On top of that, SDSU is 6-0 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. The other No. 1 seeds are Duke, Butler, and Gonzaga, at 5-1, 8-1, and 3-1 in quad 1 and 2 games, respectively. The Aztec’s schedule isn’t the strongest at 103, but it is way ahead of Gonzaga’s at 213, so if you don’t complain about Gonzaga not beating anyone than you can’t complain about SDSU not beating anyone.

Could an argument be made for two other teams to jump up and take the spots of San Diego State and Gonzaga? Sure. However, that is not the same thing as saying San Diego State isn’t deserving.

Having established that San Diego State has earned a 1 seed to thins point, what do they need to do to stay there? It can be a little bit tricky. If they enter the tournament undefeated they will likely be a 1 seed.

Their record in quad 1 and quad 2 games at that point would likely be around 12-0 to 14-0 (counting the conference tournament) depending on how the rest of the conference does. That being said, KenPom has the odds of the Aztecs finishing undefeated at 6.4%. With travel and altitude being such big factors in the Mountain West, it’s tough to win on the road. In addition, this San Diego State team almost lost at home to San Jose State a few weeks ago. Anything can happen.

What if they only lose one game?

Matt Norlander said in the Eye on College Basketball podcast that he thinks if SDSU loses only one game, including the conference tournament, they will be a No. 1 seed, regardless of who the loss is to. I’m no bracketology expert, but I could see that happening. I think it would also somewhat depend on how the other teams that are high in the bracket perform. Teams like Kansas and Ohio State have more opportunities for wins against Quality opponents, so if they go on a tear and the Aztecs drop one to a Wyoming or Air Force team, I could see them falling out of that top spot.

What if they lose two games?

This is where things get interesting. Will the committee, who likely doesn’t watch much Aztec basketball due to late tip off times, put SDSU as a No. 1 seed if they’ve lost two games? Some of it would depend on who they lose to. If one of those losses is to Utah State in the conference tournament final, maybe the committee lets them keep the 1 seed. If they lose to Colorado State and UNLV at home in the same week (end of February), then it wouldn’t be hard for me to believe that the east coast bias would kick in and the committee would drop the Aztecs down the bracket.

As a point of discussion, I also wonder if SDSU should want the No. 1 seed. I know, but let me explain. Receiving a 1 seed would be an awesome accomplishment. That being said, making the first Elite 8 or even the first Final Four in school history would be a better accomplishment. As a one seed in the South region, which is where this bracket has them, SDSU would play the first two rounds in Sacramento, where some fans could travel but many wouldn’t, and then play the next weekend in Houston (assuming they make it that far). As a No. 2 seed in the West region (assuming Gonzaga remains the 1 seed) the first games would be played in St. Louis, and then the second-weekend games would be played in L.A. at the Staples Center.

The chance to play a sweet 16 game in front of a home crowd is very appealing. The argument could be made that a 1 seed would be more valuable than a home crowd, but it is something worth thinking about.

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Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind

Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of …

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Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind


Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of the DPI rankings.

It seems almost impossible that it’s already the holiday season, but here we are. There have been nearly two months of hoops already and the non-conference season is just about over.

And while we think we may have clarity now, league play is a horse of a different color. Teams that are on cloud nine right now may come crashing back to earth. Others that have been struggling might finally shake the demons free from their backs.

But as we inch ever closer to the official onset of the Mountain West season, let’s take one last look at how all the teams stack up with just a few buy-games left on the league’s non-conference docket.

As always, for a full rundown of how the Dieckhoff Power Index, or DPI, is calculated, head over to my site. And bear in mind, non-Division I games do not count toward the DPI, so all those games against Life Pacific and Portland Bible go out the window. These ratings are current through December 23.

#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE

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The Aztecs had nearly two weeks off between their nailbiter against San Jose State and their next game versus Utah. Clearly, they used this time to reflect and improve. SDSU ran the Utes out of the building just days after the former Mountain West squad beat Kentucky. The defense continues to be the star of the show, but this team can score, too.

#2 — UTAH STATE

The Aggies have been dancing on the knife’s edge over the past few weeks, but they’ve come out on the other side mostly unscathed. In their past four games, Utah State has won in overtime, won by four points, won by two points in overtime, and won by three points. But margins notwithstandings, wins over Florida and South Florida solidified their at-large case.

#3 — NEW MEXICO

Oh, no. Things were going a little too well for the Lobos, weren’t they? After an impressive start, New Mexico announced over the weekend that starters Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell would be suspended indefinitely. Paul Weir was able to corral the rest of the team together and they won again over lowly Houston Baptist, but adversity has descended upon Albuquerque.

#4 — NEVADA

The Wolf Pack are the prime candidate to take on third place in the league should the Lobos stumble during this tumultuous time. Their trio of is legitimately dangerous. They hung very tight with Saint Mary’s last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang a big win over SDSU or Utah State this season. They’ve still got a lot of room to grow, though.

#5 — COLORADO STATE

You just can’t get rid of these Rams! Though they aren’t making many waves on the national scale, give them credit for sticking around the top half of the league for this long. Nico Carvacho is Nico Carvacho, and Isaiah Stevens has been a revelation in Niko Medved’s backcourt. Fellow freshman David Roddy started his first game in CSU’s 111-104 triple OT win over Tulsa.

#6 — BOISE STATE

Boise State has given a pretty good indication of where they are right now with their performance so far, both on the season as a whole and in the Diamond Head Classic. The Broncos lost to a wayward Georgia Tech club and then pummeled an up-and-down Portland team. They got a crummy Christmas gift, drawing a good UTEP team in their final game in Hawai’i.

#7 — FRESNO STATE

Because the DPI doesn’t count non-D1 games, the Bulldogs sit at just 3-8—yet they’ve managed to stay in seventh place, thanks to a slightly above-average defense. It was another heartbreaker for Justin Hutson on Monday, with Fresno State falling to San Francisco by just two points. That’s the sixth time the Bulldogs have either lost by one possession or lost in overtime.

#8 — AIR FORCE

The Falcons continue to struggle during this disappointing year, following up a narrow win over Denver with a loss to Drake. The offense has been good, but they haven’t been able to stop opponents from scoring. They rank near the bottom of the nation both in their ability to make teams miss and in their proclivity toward forcing turnovers.

#9 — UNLV

A rocky start to the season got worse at the start of the month with the news that grad transfer Elijah Mitrou-Long would miss six to eight weeks with a thumb injury. The Rebels are 1-2 without him, with losses to BYU and Pacific buoyed only by a forgettable triumph over Robert Morris. Fans may already be counting down the days until David Jenkins debuts in Vegas.

#10 — WYOMING

More of the same from the Cowboys, as Hunter Maldonado continues to pile up mounds of individual statistics while the team flounders. They did snap a six-game skid, though. To be clear, that’s not a knock on Maldonado. He has developed into a fine player; there’s just not enough talent throughout the roster. But their defensive metrics indicate that they’re putting forth the effort.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE

Yeesh. The Spartans’ skid has extended to eight games after San Jose State fell to Santa Clara and UC Riverside last week. The shots just aren’t falling and they don’t take care of the ball. Seneca Knight is having a good year, but once again, the Spartans have separated themselves as the clear-cut lowest ranked team in the Mountain West.

That’s it for this week. Here’s wishing you all a safe and happy holiday from Mountain West Wire and the DPI.

But buckle up. Conference play starts next week.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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