This Sunday’s morning coffee brings back reflections of the last time the Lions played the Jaguars. That meeting in December of 2022 was the first time Dan Campbell’s Lions played like a great team.
Those Lions blew out a Jaguars team that would go on to win a playoff game. Detroit has never looked back. Adding significantly more talent on both sides of the ball and growing the impressive young core has made the Lions a viable Super Bowl contender. At 8-1, the Lions welcome back a Jaguars team that is a rotting shell of the sprightly crew that was on the business end of the 40-14 beatdown two years ago.
Why I think the Lions will win
Barring another fluky five-turnover performance from Jared Goff, the Lions passing offense should be able to hit big plays against the Jaguars. Goff’s five INT anomaly in Week 10 matches the entire season volume from Jacksonville’s defense in 10 games; they’re not a team that creates takeaways or stresses the ball well in either run or pass defense. And they don’t have anyone who can effectively mark Amon-Ra St. Brown working the intermediate part of the field.
If the Jaguars shift to compensate, then they don’t have any answer for Jameson Williams over the top. Or Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield on a quick swing pass. Or Brock Wright leaking out the back side on a delayed TE release. Or David Montgomery on a sprint draw play behind Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, with Penei Sewell having already cleared out the linebacker.
In short, the Lions offensive diversity presents overwhelming issues for a Jaguars defense that got torched for 35 points by the Bears (!!) not too long ago.
Flip the side to Jacksonville’s offense. Trevor Lawrence might not be worth his astronomical salary, but Lawrence is at least a quality starting QB who has some real ability. He’s out, replaced by panicky, immobile, slow-to-throw Mac Jones. That’s a very poor fit with a replacement left tackle in Walker Little trying to fill in for injured starter Cam Robinson. Just for good measure, top RB Tank Bigsby is also out with an injury.
Even if they all played, the Lions defense still matches up well with a slow-paced offense that tries a little too hard to generate big plays. They might hit a couple, even with Jones at the helm. But asking this Jacksonville offense to keep pace with Detroit on the scoreboard is not a conducive path to victory for the visitors.
The Lions do the little things so much better, so much more frequently than the Jaguars. Things like third down offense and defense, red zone offense and defense, ball security, first-down rushing offense and defense. The 14-point spread in the odds reflects the relative confidence in the ability of each team to play to its capacity.
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What worries me about the Jaguars
I’ll be honest on this one. Not much concerns me about the Jaguars, not if the Lions take them seriously and play even a B-minus game or higher. There just isn’t enough breadth of impact talent on the Jaguars roster to compete with the Lions — if Detroit is focused and plays hard for four quarters.
That’s not to say the Jaguars are bereft of talent or ability. Their defensive front can cause some problems. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are an athletic pass-rush combo that can impact the quarterback. Walker (7 sacks) and Hines-Allen (5.5) can each defeat good blocking and take advantage of missteps by the offensive line. Roy Robertson-Harris is the type of nationally underappreciated interior presence who can make a name for himself, too. He’s better than most Lions fans will expect him to be.
The Jaguars linebackers might be the fastest combo in the league. It doesn’t mean they tackle all that well (notably Ventrell Miller) or cover well (notably Devin Lloyd), but they do create some issues with their overall speed and ability to be where the offense doesn’t want them to be. With Sam LaPorta out, it makes life for the Jacksonville LBs a lot easier.
I’d be remiss to not mention Jaguars rookie wideout Brian Thomas. He’s been consistently outstanding, a legit No. 1 target and playmaker already. His size, speed and confident panache make Thomas a major potential problem. The Jaguars have a pair of quality pass-catching tight ends in Brenston Strange and Evan Engram, too. If they get anything from the likes of Christian Kirk or Gabe Davis, even Mac Jones can make some hay against a very good Lions secondary.
Final score prediction
The Lions have the better unit in every phase of this matchup against the Jaguars. As long as Detroit doesn’t get cute playing with its food, this shouldn’t be a stressful Sunday for Lions fans.
Lions 36, Jaguars 13
